Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-11 18:00:01 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-11 12:00:07
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $200.29
Margin Used: $109.33 (54.6%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-11 18:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-11 12:00:07 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-09 16:00 → 2025-12-11 18:00
BTC:
Current Price: $89,900.00
Period Change: -2.73%
Range: $87,334.00 - $95,226.00
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-11 10:00: O=$89,927.00 H=$90,002.00 L=$89,823.00 C=$89,978.00 (+0.1%)
12-11 11:00: O=$90,002.00 H=$90,084.00 L=$89,843.00 C=$89,903.00 (-0.1%)
12-11 12:00: O=$89,848.00 H=$89,984.00 L=$89,633.00 C=$89,680.00 (-0.2%)
12-11 13:00: O=$89,604.00 H=$89,774.00 L=$89,360.00 C=$89,686.00 (+0.1%)
12-11 14:00: O=$89,694.00 H=$89,998.00 L=$88,840.00 C=$89,126.00 (-0.6%)
12-11 15:00: O=$89,129.00 H=$90,000.00 L=$88,950.00 C=$89,358.00 (+0.3%)
12-11 16:00: O=$89,619.00 H=$91,860.00 L=$87,334.00 C=$89,728.00 (+0.1%)
12-11 17:00: O=$89,729.00 H=$90,218.00 L=$89,658.00 C=$89,900.00 (+0.2%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 51.7
RSI(14): 40.0
EMA(20): $90,126.00
EMA(50): $91,381.02
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $962.50
ETH:
Current Price: $3,189.80
Period Change: -1.89%
Range: $3,156.20 - $3,511.00
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-11 10:00: O=$3,208.10 H=$3,208.40 L=$3,196.30 C=$3,204.90 (-0.1%)
12-11 11:00: O=$3,204.10 H=$3,209.10 L=$3,200.40 C=$3,200.40 (-0.1%)
12-11 12:00: O=$3,199.40 H=$3,214.40 L=$3,194.60 C=$3,210.40 (+0.3%)
12-11 13:00: O=$3,208.60 H=$3,211.60 L=$3,197.20 C=$3,199.50 (-0.3%)
12-11 14:00: O=$3,199.50 H=$3,203.40 L=$3,156.20 C=$3,170.50 (-0.9%)
12-11 15:00: O=$3,168.10 H=$3,217.90 L=$3,168.00 C=$3,190.90 (+0.7%)
12-11 16:00: O=$3,189.70 H=$3,197.90 L=$3,168.00 C=$3,178.40 (-0.4%)
12-11 17:00: O=$3,182.60 H=$3,210.70 L=$3,179.80 C=$3,189.80 (+0.2%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 40.0
RSI(14): 37.1
EMA(20): $3,225.27
EMA(50): $3,294.65
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $33.14
SOL:
Current Price: $132.27
Period Change: -4.44%
Range: $129.10 - $145.05
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-11 11:00: O=$130.74 H=$131.07 L=$130.73 C=$130.92 (+0.1%)
12-11 12:00: O=$130.83 H=$131.75 L=$130.71 C=$131.20 (+0.3%)
12-11 13:00: O=$131.19 H=$131.42 L=$130.85 C=$131.23 (+0.0%)
12-11 14:00: O=$131.26 H=$131.37 L=$129.85 C=$130.75 (-0.4%)
12-11 15:00: O=$130.62 H=$132.71 L=$130.36 C=$131.20 (+0.4%)
12-11 16:00: O=$131.14 H=$131.92 L=$130.18 C=$131.24 (+0.1%)
12-11 17:00: O=$131.27 H=$132.48 L=$130.77 C=$132.22 (+0.7%)
12-11 18:00: O=$132.23 H=$132.27 L=$132.23 C=$132.27 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 61.1
RSI(14): 42.8
EMA(20): $132.32
EMA(50): $135.79
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1.39
AVAX:
Current Price: $13.07
Period Change: -7.75%
Range: $12.90 - $14.77
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-11 10:00: O=$13.40 H=$13.40 L=$13.40 C=$13.40 (+0.0%)
12-11 11:00: O=$13.40 H=$13.40 L=$13.40 C=$13.40 (+0.0%)
12-11 12:00: O=$13.40 H=$13.40 L=$13.40 C=$13.40 (+0.0%)
12-11 13:00: O=$13.29 H=$13.33 L=$13.28 C=$13.33 (+0.3%)
12-11 14:00: O=$13.30 H=$13.30 L=$13.10 C=$13.10 (-1.5%)
12-11 15:00: O=$13.10 H=$13.20 L=$12.96 C=$13.01 (-0.7%)
12-11 16:00: O=$12.97 H=$13.11 L=$12.90 C=$13.11 (+1.1%)
12-11 17:00: O=$13.04 H=$13.12 L=$13.04 C=$13.07 (+0.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 22.7
RSI(14): 25.8
EMA(20): $13.46
EMA(50): $14.06
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.10
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
BTC (SHORT): 0.00264 @ $89,845.00 (Current: $89,900.00, P&L: -0.06%)
TP: $87,500.00 (+2.6%)
SL: $91,150.00 (-1.5%)
Exit Plan: TP at $87,500 (2.6% move, ~3x ATR) targets next support level. SL at $91,150 (1.5% above entry, 1.5x ATR) above recent resistance and EMA(20). Exit early if price reclaims $90,915 (EMA20) with strong volume or RSI divergence forms. R:R ratio 2.0:1.
ETH (SHORT): 0.046 @ $3,220.80 (Current: $3,189.80, P&L: +0.96%)
TP: $3,120.00 (+3.1%)
SL: $3,290.00 (-2.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $3,120 (3.2% move, 2.4x ATR) targets December lows. SL at $3,290 (2.1% above entry, 1.6x ATR) above EMA(20) and recent resistance. Exit if price reclaims both EMAs with bullish divergence. R:R ratio 1.5:1 - acceptable given strong momentum.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
SOL LONG: 12-07 18:00 → 12-07 22:20 (4.3h)
Entry: $134.94, Exit: $131.39 P&L: -2.63% ($-3.98) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-08 00:00 → 12-08 03:35 (3.6h)
Entry: $131.92, Exit: $134.62 P&L: -2.05% ($-3.02) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-08 00:00 → 12-08 04:35 (4.6h)
Entry: $13.45, Exit: $13.66 P&L: -1.58% ($-1.88) [SL_HIT]
BTC LONG: 12-08 06:00 → 12-08 15:20 (9.3h)
Entry: $91,156.00, Exit: $89,693.00 P&L: -1.60% ($-3.70) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-08 18:00 → 12-09 05:55 (11.9h)
Entry: $135.95, Exit: $132.40 P&L: +2.61% ($+3.23) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-09 06:00 → 12-09 12:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $132.23, Exit: $132.96 P&L: -0.55% ($-0.79) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
ETH LONG: 12-08 06:00 → 12-09 16:05 (34.1h)
Entry: $3,136.44, Exit: $3,234.00 P&L: +3.11% ($+7.66) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-10 12:00 → 12-10 20:20 (8.3h)
Entry: $137.13, Exit: $139.54 P&L: -1.76% ($-2.63) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-09 18:00 → 12-11 00:50 (30.8h)
Entry: $14.59, Exit: $13.91 P&L: +4.66% ($+2.77) [TP_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-11 06:00 → 12-11 16:05 (10.1h)
Entry: $13.40, Exit: $12.97 P&L: +3.23% ($+2.17) [TP_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
SOL:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: Strong SHORT setup: Price at $132.27, just below EMA(20) at $132.32 acting as resistance. Bearish trend confirmed (EMA20 < EMA50). Period change -4.44% shows weakness. RSI(7) at 61.1 shows short-term bounce exhaustion, RSI(14) at 42.8 in bearish zone. Recent candles show failed rally attempts - multiple rejections at $132 level. Previous AVAX shorts were highly successful (2 TPs hit recently), and SOL showing similar bearish structure. Entry at current resistance with tight stop above EMA(20). ATR at $1.39 allows for reasonable 2x ATR stop. Account has 45.4% margin available.
Confidence: 72%
Allocation: 25.0%
Leverage: 4x
Exit Plan: TP at $128.50 (2.85% move, 2.7x ATR) targets next support level near period low $129.10. SL at $134.50 (1.68% above entry, 1.6x ATR) above EMA(20) and recent resistance at $132.48. Exit early if price reclaims EMA(20) with strong volume or bullish divergence forms on RSI. R:R ratio 1.7:1. Bearish market structure supports continuation.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $200.29
Allocation: 25.0% ($50.07 margin)
Leverage: 4x
Current price: $132.27
Size: 1.5100 coins
Notional value: $199.73
📝 Executing SHORT 1.51 SOL @ 4x with TP: $128, SL: $134
✅ Market order filled @ $132.01
✅ TP order placed (oid: 44856228447)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 44856229076)
AVAX:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: Excellent SHORT opportunity: AVAX showing extreme weakness with -7.75% period change and deeply oversold RSI(7) at 22.7, RSI(14) at 25.8. However, in strong downtrends, oversold = continuation not reversal. Price at $13.07 below both EMAs (bearish structure). Recent successful AVAX shorts (2 TPs hit: +4.66% and +3.23%) validate strategy. Current price near period low $12.90 but showing no bounce strength. ATR $0.10 allows tight risk management. Pattern shows persistent selling pressure with minimal recovery attempts. With 45.4% margin available and strong bearish momentum, this is high-probability setup.
Confidence: 75%
Allocation: 20.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $12.40 (5.13% move, 6.7x ATR) targets psychological support and continuation of breakdown. SL at $13.35 (2.14% above entry, 2.8x ATR) above recent consolidation and below EMA(20) at $13.46. Exit if price reclaims $13.30+ with volume or RSI forms bullish divergence. R:R ratio 2.4:1. Extreme oversold in downtrend = opportunity not warning. Lower leverage (3x) due to extended move.
⚠️ REJECTED: total allocation would be 99.6% (current: 79.6%, new: 20.0%)
Maximum total allocation: 80%
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SHORT position in profit (+0.96% unrealized) but far from TP target of $87,500. Recent 8h candles show consolidation around $89,700-$90,000 with wicks to $87,334 (touched) then recovery. RSI(7) at 51.7 suggests neutral momentum, RSI(14) at 40 shows oversold conditions improving. Price remains below both EMAs (bearish structure intact) but the sharp wick recovery indicates buyers defending lower levels. TP/SL orders are working 24/7 - no reason to manually close when thesis (bearish trend) remains valid and position hasn't reached targets. The $87,334 wick suggests TP at $87,500 is realistic.
Confidence: 65%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SHORT position performing well (+0.96% realized P&L). Price at $3,189.80 vs entry $3,220.80, moving toward TP at $3,120. Recent action shows weakness: dropped to $3,156.20 (14h candle), slight recovery but remains below both EMAs. RSI(7) at 40 and RSI(14) at 37.1 both oversold, but in downtrend this signals continuation opportunity not reversal. EMA structure strongly bearish (price < EMA20 < EMA50). ATR at $33.14 suggests volatility remains elevated. Position has room to run to TP ($3,120 = $70 more downside). Trust the TP/SL system - manually closing profitable positions before targets is fee-churning.
Confidence: 70%
💾 Database saved: run_id=136
2 order(s) executed
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