Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-15 18:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-15 12:00:07
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $191.48
Margin Used: $0.00 (0.0%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-15 18:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-15 12:00:07 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-13 16:00 → 2025-12-15 18:00
BTC:
Current Price: $85,908.00
50h Change: -4.72%
50h Range: $85,783.00 - $91,886.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 08: $90,086.00→$90,199.00 (+0.1%)
Dec 09: $90,368.00→$92,277.00 (+2.1%)
Dec 10: $92,317.00→$91,522.00 (-0.9%)
Dec 11: $91,490.00→$92,413.00 (+1.0%)
Dec 12: $92,489.00→$90,040.00 (-2.6%)
Dec 13: $90,101.00→$90,353.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 14: $90,306.00→$88,334.00 (-2.2%)
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$85,908.00 (-2.8%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-15 10:00: O=$90,008.00 H=$90,179.00 L=$89,867.00 C=$90,036.00 (+0.0%)
12-15 11:00: O=$89,997.00 H=$90,091.00 L=$89,751.00 C=$89,839.00 (-0.2%)
12-15 12:00: O=$89,830.00 H=$90,326.00 L=$89,610.00 C=$89,928.00 (+0.1%)
12-15 13:00: O=$89,913.00 H=$90,066.00 L=$89,491.00 C=$89,678.00 (-0.3%)
12-15 14:00: O=$89,621.00 H=$89,914.00 L=$88,981.00 C=$89,263.00 (-0.4%)
12-15 15:00: O=$89,309.00 H=$89,309.00 L=$86,890.00 C=$87,329.00 (-2.2%)
12-15 16:00: O=$87,191.00 H=$87,299.00 L=$86,263.00 C=$86,560.00 (-0.7%)
12-15 17:00: O=$86,481.00 H=$86,627.00 L=$85,783.00 C=$85,908.00 (-0.7%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 7.4
RSI(14): 16.1
EMA(20): $88,822.86
EMA(50): $89,523.40
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $764.41
ETH:
Current Price: $2,929.80
50h Change: -4.16%
50h Range: $2,929.80 - $3,167.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 08: $3,058.00→$3,130.10 (+2.4%)
Dec 09: $3,125.90→$3,327.40 (+6.4%)
Dec 10: $3,320.10→$3,333.90 (+0.4%)
Dec 11: $3,334.10→$3,246.70 (-2.6%)
Dec 12: $3,245.00→$3,054.30 (-5.9%)
Dec 13: $3,053.80→$3,097.30 (+1.4%)
Dec 14: $3,097.20→$3,048.20 (-1.6%)
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,929.80 (-4.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-15 10:00: O=$3,147.00 H=$3,167.00 L=$3,143.50 C=$3,149.80 (+0.1%)
12-15 11:00: O=$3,149.30 H=$3,154.40 L=$3,135.30 C=$3,147.60 (-0.1%)
12-15 12:00: O=$3,150.00 H=$3,150.00 L=$3,139.60 C=$3,148.70 (-0.0%)
12-15 13:00: O=$3,144.70 H=$3,147.30 L=$3,120.30 C=$3,124.30 (-0.6%)
12-15 14:00: O=$3,123.30 H=$3,135.80 L=$3,017.90 C=$3,047.00 (-2.4%)
12-15 15:00: O=$3,029.00 H=$3,040.00 L=$2,942.20 C=$2,995.60 (-1.1%)
12-15 16:00: O=$2,996.70 H=$3,007.20 L=$2,961.90 C=$2,975.20 (-0.7%)
12-15 17:00: O=$2,982.30 H=$2,985.00 L=$2,929.80 C=$2,929.80 (-1.8%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 11.3
RSI(14): 21.0
EMA(20): $3,071.75
EMA(50): $3,087.05
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $39.11
SOL:
Current Price: $124.74
50h Change: -6.46%
50h Range: $124.57 - $135.55
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 08: $132.07→$133.31 (+0.9%)
Dec 09: $133.29→$137.98 (+3.5%)
Dec 10: $137.86→$136.28 (-1.1%)
Dec 11: $136.27→$136.20 (-0.1%)
Dec 12: $136.47→$132.24 (-3.1%)
Dec 13: $132.26→$133.19 (+0.7%)
Dec 14: $133.01→$129.58 (-2.6%)
Dec 15: $129.56→$124.74 (-3.7%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-15 10:00: O=$132.87 H=$132.96 L=$132.38 C=$132.63 (-0.2%)
12-15 11:00: O=$132.64 H=$132.88 L=$132.13 C=$132.39 (-0.2%)
12-15 12:00: O=$132.37 H=$133.20 L=$131.88 C=$132.87 (+0.4%)
12-15 13:00: O=$132.90 H=$133.47 L=$131.82 C=$132.92 (+0.0%)
12-15 14:00: O=$132.85 H=$135.55 L=$129.98 C=$130.76 (-1.6%)
12-15 15:00: O=$130.49 H=$130.56 L=$126.49 C=$126.59 (-3.0%)
12-15 16:00: O=$126.71 H=$127.11 L=$125.58 C=$126.44 (-0.2%)
12-15 17:00: O=$126.39 H=$126.70 L=$124.57 C=$124.74 (-1.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 10.4
RSI(14): 18.8
EMA(20): $130.35
EMA(50): $131.63
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1.59
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.33
50h Change: -7.93%
50h Range: $12.33 - $13.40
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 08: $13.46→$13.64 (+1.3%)
Dec 09: $13.63→$14.59 (+7.0%)
Dec 10: $14.62→$14.18 (-3.0%)
Dec 11: $14.08→$13.54 (-3.8%)
Dec 12: $13.41→$13.11 (-2.2%)
Dec 13: $13.10→$13.37 (+2.1%)
Dec 14: $13.37→$12.86 (-3.8%)
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.33 (-4.8%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-15 10:00: O=$13.22 H=$13.29 L=$13.22 C=$13.28 (+0.5%)
12-15 11:00: O=$13.22 H=$13.22 L=$13.21 C=$13.21 (-0.1%)
12-15 12:00: O=$13.21 H=$13.21 L=$13.21 C=$13.21 (+0.0%)
12-15 13:00: O=$13.12 H=$13.12 L=$13.11 C=$13.11 (-0.1%)
12-15 14:00: O=$13.12 H=$13.17 L=$12.81 C=$12.81 (-2.4%)
12-15 15:00: O=$12.75 H=$12.75 L=$12.51 C=$12.51 (-1.9%)
12-15 16:00: O=$12.51 H=$12.51 L=$12.50 C=$12.50 (-0.0%)
12-15 17:00: O=$12.39 H=$12.39 L=$12.33 C=$12.33 (-0.5%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 10.3
RSI(14): 19.1
EMA(20): $12.94
EMA(50): $13.12
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.09
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
No open positions
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
AVAX SHORT: 12-13 00:00 → 12-13 06:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $13.10, Exit: $13.29 P&L: -1.48% ($-1.32) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-12 18:00 → 12-13 12:00 (18.0h)
Entry: $132.14, Exit: $133.37 P&L: -0.93% ($-1.38) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-14 00:00 → 12-14 11:50 (11.8h)
Entry: $13.37, Exit: $13.00 P&L: +2.78% ($+2.82) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-13 18:00 → 12-14 17:20 (23.3h)
Entry: $132.25, Exit: $129.97 P&L: +1.72% ($+2.01) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-12 18:00 → 12-15 00:00 (54.0h)
Entry: $3,073.70, Exit: $3,057.20 P&L: +0.54% ($+1.27) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-14 18:00 → 12-15 02:05 (8.1h)
Entry: $130.11, Exit: $132.17 P&L: -1.58% ($-1.38) [SL_HIT]
BTC SHORT: 12-14 12:00 → 12-15 12:00 (24.0h)
Entry: $89,322.00, Exit: $89,830.00 P&L: -0.57% ($-0.49) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-14 12:00 → 12-15 12:00 (24.0h)
Entry: $13.03, Exit: $13.21 P&L: -1.39% ($-0.54) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL LONG: 12-15 12:00 → 12-15 14:20 (2.3h)
Entry: $132.37, Exit: $134.87 P&L: +1.89% ($+1.10) [TP_HIT]
ETH LONG: 12-15 06:00 → 12-15 15:05 (9.1h)
Entry: $3,109.00, Exit: $3,052.50 P&L: -1.82% ($-2.63) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
BTC:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: Severe capitulation with RSI(7) at 7.4 and RSI(14) at 16.1, both extremely oversold. However, price is in a clear downtrend (EMA20<EMA50), just crashed -2.2% in hour 15 and continued dropping -0.7% in hours 16-17. Price broke below $86k support and is making new lows at $85,908. While oversold conditions suggest a bounce is possible, the trend is strongly bearish and we should trade WITH the trend. The sharp selloff suggests more downside to $84k-$85k before any meaningful bounce. Entry on weakness with tight stops above recent consolidation.
Confidence: 65%
Allocation: 25.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $84,500 (1.6% move, ~2:1 R/R). SL at $87,200 above hour 15-16 consolidation zone and 1.7x ATR above entry. Exit early if RSI(7) drops below 5 (extreme capitulation) or if we see a strong reversal candle with volume spike above $87k resistance.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $191.48
Allocation: 25.0% ($47.87 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $85,908.00
Size: 0.0017 coins
Notional value: $143.47
📝 Executing SHORT 0.00167 BTC @ 3x with TP: $84,500, SL: $87,200
✅ Market order filled @ $85,790.00
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45052714868)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45052716428)
ETH:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: ETH showing similar extreme weakness with RSI(7) at 11.3 and RSI(14) at 21.0. Clear bearish trend with price below both EMAs. Just broke below $3,000 psychological support and made new low at $2,929.80 in hour 17 (-1.8%). The selloff is accelerating with consecutive red candles. While oversold, the momentum is clearly bearish and we should follow the trend. Target $2,850-$2,900 zone before any bounce attempt.
Confidence: 68%
Allocation: 28.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $2,875 (1.9% move, ~2.5:1 R/R). SL at $2,990 above hour 16 consolidation and 1.5x ATR above entry. Exit early if price reclaims $3,000 with strong volume or if BTC shows sharp reversal that could lift the entire market.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $191.48
Allocation: 28.0% ($53.61 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $2,929.80
Size: 0.0549 coins
Notional value: $160.85
📝 Executing SHORT 0.0549 ETH @ 3x with TP: $2,875, SL: $2,990
✅ Market order filled @ $2,926.40
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45052720520)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45052721163)
SOL:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: SOL is the weakest performer with -6.46% over 50h and RSI(7) at 10.4, RSI(14) at 18.8. Strong downtrend with price well below both EMAs. Made new low at $124.57 in hour 17 and closed at $124.74. The selloff in hours 15-17 was brutal (-3.0%, -0.2%, -1.3%). While extremely oversold, the trend is decisively bearish. Previous short attempts were profitable when we followed the trend (12-13 and 12-14 TPs hit). Target $122-$123 support zone.
Confidence: 70%
Allocation: 30.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $122.50 (1.8% move, ~2.3:1 R/R). SL at $126.80 above hour 16 consolidation and 1.3x ATR above entry. Exit early if RSI(7) spikes above 30 quickly (reversal signal) or if we see bullish divergence forming on hourly chart with volume confirmation.
⚠️ REJECTED: total allocation would be 83.0% (current: 53.0%, new: 30.0%)
Maximum total allocation: 80%
AVAX:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: AVAX showing extreme weakness with -7.93% over 50h, worst performer. RSI(7) at 10.3 and RSI(14) at 19.1 indicate severe oversold conditions, but price is in strong downtrend below both EMAs. Made new low at $12.33 in hour 17. Recent history shows our AVAX shorts were profitable when following the trend (12-14 TP hit +2.78%). The consecutive selling pressure in hours 14-17 (-2.4%, -1.9%, -0.0%, -0.5%) suggests more downside to $12.00-$12.20 zone despite oversold readings.
Confidence: 62%
Allocation: 20.0%
Leverage: 2x
Exit Plan: TP at $12.10 (1.9% move, ~2.5:1 R/R). SL at $12.55 above hour 16-17 consolidation and 2.4x ATR above entry (wider stop due to volatility). Exit early if we see a strong reversal candle closing above $12.50 with volume, or if broader market (BTC/ETH) shows sharp reversal that could lift alts.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $191.48
Allocation: 20.0% ($38.30 margin)
Leverage: 2x
Current price: $12.33
Size: 6.2100 coins
Notional value: $76.56
📝 Executing SHORT 6.21 AVAX @ 2x with TP: $12, SL: $13
✅ Market order filled @ $12.30
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45052726026)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45052726670)
💾 Database saved: run_id=152
4 order(s) executed
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