Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-16 00:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-15 18:00:08
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $188.29
Margin Used: $136.56 (72.5%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-16 00:00:09 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-15 18:00:08 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-13 22:00 → 2025-12-16 00:00
BTC:
Current Price: $86,345.00
50h Change: -4.36%
50h Range: $85,011.00 - $91,886.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 09: $90,368.00→$92,277.00 (+2.1%)
Dec 10: $92,317.00→$91,522.00 (-0.9%)
Dec 11: $91,490.00→$92,413.00 (+1.0%)
Dec 12: $92,489.00→$90,040.00 (-2.6%)
Dec 13: $90,101.00→$90,353.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 14: $90,306.00→$88,334.00 (-2.2%)
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$86,345.00 (-2.3%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-15 16:00: O=$87,191.00 H=$87,299.00 L=$86,263.00 C=$86,560.00 (-0.7%)
12-15 17:00: O=$86,481.00 H=$86,627.00 L=$85,783.00 C=$85,908.00 (-0.7%)
12-15 18:00: O=$85,758.00 H=$86,194.00 L=$85,011.00 C=$86,097.00 (+0.4%)
12-15 19:00: O=$86,078.00 H=$86,485.00 L=$85,863.00 C=$86,089.00 (+0.0%)
12-15 20:00: O=$86,024.00 H=$86,036.00 L=$85,542.00 C=$85,832.00 (-0.2%)
12-15 21:00: O=$85,777.00 H=$86,246.00 L=$85,500.00 C=$86,160.00 (+0.4%)
12-15 22:00: O=$86,190.00 H=$86,223.00 L=$85,811.00 C=$86,213.00 (+0.0%)
12-15 23:00: O=$86,123.00 H=$86,383.00 L=$86,096.00 C=$86,345.00 (+0.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 29.4
RSI(14): 28.6
EMA(20): $87,619.25
EMA(50): $89,033.02
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $708.90
ETH:
Current Price: $2,955.40
50h Change: -3.92%
50h Range: $2,890.40 - $3,167.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 09: $3,125.90→$3,327.40 (+6.4%)
Dec 10: $3,320.10→$3,333.90 (+0.4%)
Dec 11: $3,334.10→$3,246.70 (-2.6%)
Dec 12: $3,245.00→$3,054.30 (-5.9%)
Dec 13: $3,053.80→$3,097.30 (+1.4%)
Dec 14: $3,097.20→$3,048.20 (-1.6%)
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,952.40 (-3.3%)
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,955.40 (+0.0%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-15 17:00: O=$2,982.30 H=$2,985.00 L=$2,929.80 C=$2,929.80 (-1.8%)
12-15 18:00: O=$2,926.40 H=$2,935.70 L=$2,890.40 C=$2,928.50 (+0.1%)
12-15 19:00: O=$2,925.80 H=$2,954.20 L=$2,925.00 C=$2,934.20 (+0.3%)
12-15 20:00: O=$2,926.40 H=$2,933.40 L=$2,912.50 C=$2,924.80 (-0.1%)
12-15 21:00: O=$2,923.00 H=$2,935.50 L=$2,910.00 C=$2,934.60 (+0.4%)
12-15 22:00: O=$2,935.10 H=$2,940.40 L=$2,925.90 C=$2,940.00 (+0.2%)
12-15 23:00: O=$2,938.90 H=$2,957.50 L=$2,938.90 C=$2,952.40 (+0.5%)
12-16 00:00: O=$2,955.40 H=$2,955.40 L=$2,955.40 C=$2,955.40 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 34.6
RSI(14): 32.4
EMA(20): $3,006.06
EMA(50): $3,067.23
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $30.60
SOL:
Current Price: $127.79
50h Change: -3.70%
50h Range: $123.87 - $135.55
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 09: $133.29→$137.98 (+3.5%)
Dec 10: $137.86→$136.28 (-1.1%)
Dec 11: $136.27→$136.20 (-0.1%)
Dec 12: $136.47→$132.24 (-3.1%)
Dec 13: $132.26→$133.19 (+0.7%)
Dec 14: $133.01→$129.58 (-2.6%)
Dec 15: $129.56→$127.79 (-1.4%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-15 16:00: O=$126.71 H=$127.11 L=$125.58 C=$126.44 (-0.2%)
12-15 17:00: O=$126.39 H=$126.70 L=$124.57 C=$124.74 (-1.3%)
12-15 18:00: O=$124.73 H=$125.29 L=$123.95 C=$124.73 (+0.0%)
12-15 19:00: O=$124.80 H=$125.78 L=$124.71 C=$124.97 (+0.1%)
12-15 20:00: O=$124.80 H=$125.51 L=$123.87 C=$125.20 (+0.3%)
12-15 21:00: O=$125.04 H=$126.31 L=$125.02 C=$125.68 (+0.5%)
12-15 22:00: O=$125.77 H=$126.39 L=$125.68 C=$126.39 (+0.5%)
12-15 23:00: O=$126.31 H=$128.14 L=$126.27 C=$127.79 (+1.2%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 52.9
RSI(14): 43.9
EMA(20): $128.39
EMA(50): $130.81
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1.49
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.37
50h Change: -6.89%
50h Range: $12.27 - $13.37
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 09: $13.63→$14.59 (+7.0%)
Dec 10: $14.62→$14.18 (-3.0%)
Dec 11: $14.08→$13.54 (-3.8%)
Dec 12: $13.41→$13.11 (-2.2%)
Dec 13: $13.10→$13.37 (+2.1%)
Dec 14: $13.37→$12.86 (-3.8%)
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.37 (-4.5%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-15 16:00: O=$12.51 H=$12.51 L=$12.50 C=$12.50 (-0.0%)
12-15 17:00: O=$12.39 H=$12.39 L=$12.33 C=$12.33 (-0.5%)
12-15 18:00: O=$12.30 H=$12.30 L=$12.30 C=$12.30 (-0.0%)
12-15 19:00: O=$12.44 H=$12.44 L=$12.38 C=$12.39 (-0.4%)
12-15 20:00: O=$12.37 H=$12.37 L=$12.27 C=$12.28 (-0.7%)
12-15 21:00: O=$12.32 H=$12.32 L=$12.32 C=$12.32 (+0.0%)
12-15 22:00: O=$12.34 H=$12.34 L=$12.31 C=$12.32 (-0.1%)
12-15 23:00: O=$12.35 H=$12.37 L=$12.35 C=$12.37 (+0.2%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 29.8
RSI(14): 31.2
EMA(20): $12.67
EMA(50): $13.00
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.08
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
BTC (SHORT): 0.00167 @ $85,790.00 (Current: $86,345.00, P&L: -0.65%)
TP: $84,500.00 (+1.5%)
SL: $87,200.00 (-1.6%)
Exit Plan: TP at $84,500 (1.6% move, ~2:1 R/R). SL at $87,200 above hour 15-16 consolidation zone and 1.7x ATR above entry. Exit early if RSI(7) drops below 5 (extreme capitulation) or if we see a strong reversal candle with volume spike above $87k resistance.
ETH (SHORT): 0.0549 @ $2,926.40 (Current: $2,955.40, P&L: -0.99%)
TP: $2,875.00 (+1.8%)
SL: $2,990.00 (-2.2%)
Exit Plan: TP at $2,875 (1.9% move, ~2.5:1 R/R). SL at $2,990 above hour 16 consolidation and 1.5x ATR above entry. Exit early if price reclaims $3,000 with strong volume or if BTC shows sharp reversal that could lift the entire market.
AVAX (SHORT): 6.21 @ $12.30 (Current: $12.37, P&L: -0.52%)
TP: $12.10 (+1.7%)
SL: $12.55 (-2.0%)
Exit Plan: TP at $12.10 (1.9% move, ~2.5:1 R/R). SL at $12.55 above hour 16-17 consolidation and 2.4x ATR above entry (wider stop due to volatility). Exit early if we see a strong reversal candle closing above $12.50 with volume, or if broader market (BTC/ETH) shows sharp reversal that could lift alts.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
AVAX SHORT: 12-13 00:00 → 12-13 06:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $13.10, Exit: $13.29 P&L: -1.48% ($-1.32) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-12 18:00 → 12-13 12:00 (18.0h)
Entry: $132.14, Exit: $133.37 P&L: -0.93% ($-1.38) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-14 00:00 → 12-14 11:50 (11.8h)
Entry: $13.37, Exit: $13.00 P&L: +2.78% ($+2.82) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-13 18:00 → 12-14 17:20 (23.3h)
Entry: $132.25, Exit: $129.97 P&L: +1.72% ($+2.01) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-12 18:00 → 12-15 00:00 (54.0h)
Entry: $3,073.70, Exit: $3,057.20 P&L: +0.54% ($+1.27) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-14 18:00 → 12-15 02:05 (8.1h)
Entry: $130.11, Exit: $132.17 P&L: -1.58% ($-1.38) [SL_HIT]
BTC SHORT: 12-14 12:00 → 12-15 12:00 (24.0h)
Entry: $89,322.00, Exit: $89,830.00 P&L: -0.57% ($-0.49) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-14 12:00 → 12-15 12:00 (24.0h)
Entry: $13.03, Exit: $13.21 P&L: -1.39% ($-0.54) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL LONG: 12-15 12:00 → 12-15 14:20 (2.3h)
Entry: $132.37, Exit: $134.87 P&L: +1.89% ($+1.10) [TP_HIT]
ETH LONG: 12-15 06:00 → 12-15 15:05 (9.1h)
Entry: $3,109.00, Exit: $3,052.50 P&L: -1.82% ($-2.63) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
SOL:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: Strong SHORT setup: Price at $127.79 showing bounce (+1.2% last hour) but still in bearish structure below EMAs ($128.39/$130.81). RSI(7) at 52.9 shows temporary strength but RSI(14) at 43.9 indicates underlying weakness. This bounce into resistance zone is ideal SHORT entry - classic bear market rally fade. Recent price action: down -3.7% over 50h, testing lows at $123.87. Entry near EMA(20) resistance with tight stop above recent high. High conviction counter-rally SHORT.
Confidence: 75%
Allocation: 15.0%
Leverage: 4x
Exit Plan: TP at $124.50 (2.6% move, ~2.5:1 R/R) targeting recent consolidation lows. SL at $130.00 above EMA(20) resistance and 1.5x ATR above entry. Exit early if price closes above $129 with strong volume indicating trend reversal, or if BTC breaks above $88k which could lift entire market. Bearish EMA structure supports SHORT thesis.
⚠️ REJECTED: total allocation would be 87.5% (current: 72.5%, new: 15.0%)
Maximum total allocation: 80%
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SHORT position from $85,790 currently -0.65% underwater. Price at $86,345 is consolidating between entry and SL at $87,200. Recent candles show stabilization with small green close (+0.3% last hour). RSI(7) at 29.4 indicates oversold conditions but in a bearish trend this suggests SHORT continuation potential. Price remains below both EMAs ($87,619/$89,033). TP at $84,500 is reasonable target. Trust the SL - no reason to manually close. Position is working as intended in bearish structure.
Confidence: 65%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SHORT position from $2,926.40 currently -0.99% underwater. Price at $2,955.40 showing slight recovery with last 4 candles green but small gains (+0.5% last hour). Still in bearish structure below EMAs ($3,006/$3,067). RSI(7) at 34.6 shows oversold but not extreme. Price has not reclaimed $3,000 resistance. TP at $2,875 remains valid target in downtrend. SL at $2,990 provides adequate protection. Position thesis intact - hold and let it work.
Confidence: 60%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SHORT position from $12.30 currently -0.52% underwater but showing stability. Price at $12.37 with minimal movement last 8 hours (tight range $12.27-$12.37). RSI(7) at 29.8 deeply oversold, RSI(14) at 31.2 also oversold. However, in bearish trend (price below EMAs $12.67/$13.00) oversold can persist. Recent 50h down -6.89%. TP at $12.10 is achievable if selling pressure continues. SL at $12.55 is appropriate. Position working correctly - trust the setup and let TP/SL execute.
Confidence: 60%
💾 Database saved: run_id=153
1 order(s) executed
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