Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-16 06:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-16 00:00:09
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $192.42
Margin Used: $101.38 (52.7%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-16 06:00:07 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-16 00:00:09 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-14 04:00 → 2025-12-16 06:00
BTC:
Current Price: $85,864.00
50h Change: -4.85%
50h Range: $85,011.00 - $91,886.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 09: $90,368.00→$92,277.00 (+2.1%)
Dec 10: $92,317.00→$91,522.00 (-0.9%)
Dec 11: $91,490.00→$92,413.00 (+1.0%)
Dec 12: $92,489.00→$90,040.00 (-2.6%)
Dec 13: $90,101.00→$90,353.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 14: $90,306.00→$88,334.00 (-2.2%)
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$86,345.00 (-2.3%)
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$85,864.00 (-0.6%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-15 22:00: O=$86,190.00 H=$86,223.00 L=$85,811.00 C=$86,213.00 (+0.0%)
12-15 23:00: O=$86,123.00 H=$86,383.00 L=$86,096.00 C=$86,345.00 (+0.3%)
12-16 00:00: O=$86,357.00 H=$86,473.00 L=$85,615.00 C=$85,831.00 (-0.6%)
12-16 01:00: O=$85,776.00 H=$86,090.00 L=$85,643.00 C=$85,823.00 (+0.1%)
12-16 02:00: O=$85,868.00 H=$86,161.00 L=$85,763.00 C=$85,815.00 (-0.1%)
12-16 03:00: O=$85,885.00 H=$85,905.00 L=$85,332.00 C=$85,698.00 (-0.2%)
12-16 04:00: O=$85,718.00 H=$85,718.00 L=$85,229.00 C=$85,660.00 (-0.1%)
12-16 05:00: O=$85,745.00 H=$86,023.00 L=$85,670.00 C=$85,864.00 (+0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 32.0
RSI(14): 28.6
EMA(20): $86,791.40
EMA(50): $88,485.46
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $637.66
ETH:
Current Price: $2,913.60
50h Change: -6.31%
50h Range: $2,872.10 - $3,167.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 09: $3,125.90→$3,327.40 (+6.4%)
Dec 10: $3,320.10→$3,333.90 (+0.4%)
Dec 11: $3,334.10→$3,246.70 (-2.6%)
Dec 12: $3,245.00→$3,054.30 (-5.9%)
Dec 13: $3,053.80→$3,097.30 (+1.4%)
Dec 14: $3,097.20→$3,048.20 (-1.6%)
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,952.40 (-3.3%)
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,913.60 (-1.4%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-15 23:00: O=$2,938.90 H=$2,957.50 L=$2,938.90 C=$2,952.40 (+0.5%)
12-16 00:00: O=$2,955.40 H=$2,970.80 L=$2,933.30 C=$2,933.30 (-0.7%)
12-16 01:00: O=$2,934.50 H=$2,952.20 L=$2,931.90 C=$2,939.20 (+0.2%)
12-16 02:00: O=$2,939.20 H=$2,956.90 L=$2,934.40 C=$2,939.40 (+0.0%)
12-16 03:00: O=$2,937.70 H=$2,940.60 L=$2,914.50 C=$2,927.10 (-0.4%)
12-16 04:00: O=$2,929.00 H=$2,929.00 L=$2,872.10 C=$2,907.30 (-0.7%)
12-16 05:00: O=$2,906.90 H=$2,916.80 L=$2,904.50 C=$2,914.10 (+0.2%)
12-16 06:00: O=$2,913.60 H=$2,913.60 L=$2,913.60 C=$2,913.60 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 27.3
RSI(14): 28.4
EMA(20): $2,966.85
EMA(50): $3,044.88
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $29.08
SOL:
Current Price: $126.54
50h Change: -4.89%
50h Range: $123.87 - $135.55
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 09: $133.29→$137.98 (+3.5%)
Dec 10: $137.86→$136.28 (-1.1%)
Dec 11: $136.27→$136.20 (-0.1%)
Dec 12: $136.47→$132.24 (-3.1%)
Dec 13: $132.26→$133.19 (+0.7%)
Dec 14: $133.01→$129.58 (-2.6%)
Dec 15: $129.56→$127.79 (-1.4%)
Dec 16: $127.68→$126.54 (-0.9%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-15 22:00: O=$125.77 H=$126.39 L=$125.68 C=$126.39 (+0.5%)
12-15 23:00: O=$126.31 H=$128.14 L=$126.27 C=$127.79 (+1.2%)
12-16 00:00: O=$127.68 H=$128.03 L=$126.23 C=$126.31 (-1.1%)
12-16 01:00: O=$126.14 H=$126.75 L=$125.52 C=$126.34 (+0.2%)
12-16 02:00: O=$126.36 H=$127.23 L=$126.13 C=$126.71 (+0.3%)
12-16 03:00: O=$126.73 H=$126.87 L=$125.03 C=$126.51 (-0.2%)
12-16 04:00: O=$126.64 H=$126.68 L=$125.03 C=$126.12 (-0.4%)
12-16 05:00: O=$125.95 H=$126.64 L=$125.95 C=$126.54 (+0.5%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 45.4
RSI(14): 40.3
EMA(20): $127.50
EMA(50): $130.00
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1.45
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.21
50h Change: -8.22%
50h Range: $12.10 - $13.30
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 09: $13.63→$14.59 (+7.0%)
Dec 10: $14.62→$14.18 (-3.0%)
Dec 11: $14.08→$13.54 (-3.8%)
Dec 12: $13.41→$13.11 (-2.2%)
Dec 13: $13.10→$13.37 (+2.1%)
Dec 14: $13.37→$12.86 (-3.8%)
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.37 (-4.5%)
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.21 (-1.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-15 22:00: O=$12.34 H=$12.34 L=$12.31 C=$12.32 (-0.1%)
12-15 23:00: O=$12.35 H=$12.37 L=$12.35 C=$12.37 (+0.2%)
12-16 00:00: O=$12.35 H=$12.35 L=$12.20 C=$12.20 (-1.2%)
12-16 01:00: O=$12.20 H=$12.27 L=$12.20 C=$12.26 (+0.5%)
12-16 02:00: O=$12.26 H=$12.30 L=$12.25 C=$12.25 (-0.0%)
12-16 03:00: O=$12.25 H=$12.25 L=$12.20 C=$12.24 (-0.1%)
12-16 04:00: O=$12.23 H=$12.23 L=$12.10 C=$12.13 (-0.8%)
12-16 05:00: O=$12.21 H=$12.21 L=$12.18 C=$12.21 (-0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 35.0
RSI(14): 30.7
EMA(20): $12.46
EMA(50): $12.87
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.09
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
BTC (SHORT): 0.00167 @ $85,790.00 (Current: $85,864.00, P&L: -0.09%)
TP: $84,500.00 (+1.5%)
SL: $87,200.00 (-1.6%)
Exit Plan: TP at $84,500 (1.6% move, ~2:1 R/R). SL at $87,200 above hour 15-16 consolidation zone and 1.7x ATR above entry. Exit early if RSI(7) drops below 5 (extreme capitulation) or if we see a strong reversal candle with volume spike above $87k resistance.
ETH (SHORT): 0.0549 @ $2,926.40 (Current: $2,913.60, P&L: +0.44%)
TP: $2,875.00 (+1.8%)
SL: $2,990.00 (-2.2%)
Exit Plan: TP at $2,875 (1.9% move, ~2.5:1 R/R). SL at $2,990 above hour 16 consolidation and 1.5x ATR above entry. Exit early if price reclaims $3,000 with strong volume or if BTC shows sharp reversal that could lift the entire market.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
SOL SHORT: 12-12 18:00 → 12-13 12:00 (18.0h)
Entry: $132.14, Exit: $133.37 P&L: -0.93% ($-1.38) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-14 00:00 → 12-14 11:50 (11.8h)
Entry: $13.37, Exit: $13.00 P&L: +2.78% ($+2.82) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-13 18:00 → 12-14 17:20 (23.3h)
Entry: $132.25, Exit: $129.97 P&L: +1.72% ($+2.01) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-12 18:00 → 12-15 00:00 (54.0h)
Entry: $3,073.70, Exit: $3,057.20 P&L: +0.54% ($+1.27) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-14 18:00 → 12-15 02:05 (8.1h)
Entry: $130.11, Exit: $132.17 P&L: -1.58% ($-1.38) [SL_HIT]
BTC SHORT: 12-14 12:00 → 12-15 12:00 (24.0h)
Entry: $89,322.00, Exit: $89,830.00 P&L: -0.57% ($-0.49) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-14 12:00 → 12-15 12:00 (24.0h)
Entry: $13.03, Exit: $13.21 P&L: -1.39% ($-0.54) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL LONG: 12-15 12:00 → 12-15 14:20 (2.3h)
Entry: $132.37, Exit: $134.87 P&L: +1.89% ($+1.10) [TP_HIT]
ETH LONG: 12-15 06:00 → 12-15 15:05 (9.1h)
Entry: $3,109.00, Exit: $3,052.50 P&L: -1.82% ($-2.63) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-16 04:50 (10.8h)
Entry: $12.30, Exit: $12.11 P&L: +1.55% ($+1.19) [TP_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
SOL:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: SOL showing relative strength (RSI 40.3 vs BTC/ETH ~28) but still in clear downtrend with price below both EMAs. Currently at $126.54 after bouncing from $123.87 low. This bounce into resistance (EMA20 at $127.50) presents a good SHORT entry opportunity. Market structure is bearish across all assets, and SOL's relative strength will likely fade. Entry near $126.50 with TP at $123.50 (2.4% move) and SL at $129.00 (1.9% risk) gives 1.25:1 R/R. With current margin at 52.7%, can allocate 15% more safely.
Confidence: 65%
Allocation: 15.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $123.50 targets recent lows with 2.4% downside move. SL at $129.00 above EMA20 resistance and 1.7x ATR above entry. Exit early if SOL breaks above $129.50 with strong volume or if BTC shows sharp reversal above $87,500 that could lift entire market.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $192.42
Allocation: 15.0% ($28.86 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $126.54
Size: 0.6800 coins
Notional value: $86.05
📝 Executing SHORT 0.68 SOL @ 3x with TP: $124, SL: $129
✅ Market order filled @ $126.37
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45081048236)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45081048912)
AVAX:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: AVAX weakest performer (-8.22% over 50h) with RSI(14) at 30.7 showing oversold but still in strong downtrend. Price at $12.21 near recent low of $12.10, below both EMAs. Recent AVAX SHORT from $12.30 hit TP at $12.11 (+1.55%), showing this asset respects technical levels. Current price offers re-entry opportunity as any bounce will likely fail at EMA20 ($12.46). Entry at $12.21, TP at $11.90 (2.5% move), SL at $12.50 (2.4% risk) gives ~1:1 R/R but high probability given trend strength. Conservative 12% allocation.
Confidence: 70%
Allocation: 12.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $11.90 targets 2.5% below current price, extending the downtrend. SL at $12.50 above EMA20 at $12.46 and 3x ATR above entry for safety. Exit early if AVAX reclaims $12.60 with volume spike or if broader market shows coordinated reversal with BTC breaking above $87,000 resistance.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $192.42
Allocation: 12.0% ($23.09 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $12.21
Size: 5.6700 coins
Notional value: $69.24
📝 Executing SHORT 5.67 AVAX @ 3x with TP: $12, SL: $12
✅ Market order filled @ $12.20
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45081050611)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45081051158)
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Existing SHORT position from $85,790 is performing as expected. Price currently at $85,864 (-0.09% P&L) with clear downtrend intact (price < EMA20 < EMA50, RSI(14) at 28.6 deeply oversold). Recent 8h candles show consolidation around $85,600-$86,200 with no reversal signals. TP at $84,500 is reasonable target (-1.5% more downside). Trust the automated TP/SL - no reason to manually close a position that's tracking the thesis correctly. Bearish structure remains dominant.
Confidence: 75%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Existing SHORT position from $2,926.40 is working well (+0.44% P&L). ETH showing even weaker structure than BTC with RSI(14) at 28.4, price well below both EMAs, and -6.31% decline over 50h. Recent candles show continued weakness with new lows at $2,872. TP at $2,875 is close to being hit (only $38 away). The position has proper risk management with SL at $2,990. Let the TP execute automatically - manually closing profitable positions before target is reached leaves money on the table and incurs unnecessary fees.
Confidence: 80%
💾 Database saved: run_id=154
2 order(s) executed
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