Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-16 18:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-16 12:00:08
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $187.51
Margin Used: $76.45 (40.8%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-16 18:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-16 12:00:08 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-14 16:00 → 2025-12-16 18:00
BTC:
Current Price: $86,921.00
50h Change: -2.42%
50h Range: $85,011.00 - $91,886.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 09: $90,368.00→$92,277.00 (+2.1%)
Dec 10: $92,317.00→$91,522.00 (-0.9%)
Dec 11: $91,490.00→$92,413.00 (+1.0%)
Dec 12: $92,489.00→$90,040.00 (-2.6%)
Dec 13: $90,101.00→$90,353.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 14: $90,306.00→$88,334.00 (-2.2%)
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$86,345.00 (-2.3%)
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$86,921.00 (+0.7%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-16 11:00: O=$86,844.00 H=$87,117.00 L=$86,709.00 C=$87,067.00 (+0.3%)
12-16 12:00: O=$87,112.00 H=$87,276.00 L=$86,894.00 C=$86,988.00 (-0.1%)
12-16 13:00: O=$87,057.00 H=$87,410.00 L=$86,357.00 C=$86,402.00 (-0.8%)
12-16 14:00: O=$86,357.00 H=$87,273.00 L=$85,914.00 C=$86,969.00 (+0.7%)
12-16 15:00: O=$87,079.00 H=$87,871.00 L=$86,593.00 C=$87,731.00 (+0.7%)
12-16 16:00: O=$87,837.00 H=$87,859.00 L=$87,219.00 C=$87,411.00 (-0.5%)
12-16 17:00: O=$87,382.00 H=$87,655.00 L=$86,922.00 C=$86,925.00 (-0.5%)
12-16 18:00: O=$86,921.00 H=$86,921.00 L=$86,921.00 C=$86,921.00 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 51.7
RSI(14): 49.9
EMA(20): $86,841.47
EMA(50): $87,713.76
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $691.01
ETH:
Current Price: $2,909.90
50h Change: -5.37%
50h Range: $2,872.10 - $3,167.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 09: $3,125.90→$3,327.40 (+6.4%)
Dec 10: $3,320.10→$3,333.90 (+0.4%)
Dec 11: $3,334.10→$3,246.70 (-2.6%)
Dec 12: $3,245.00→$3,054.30 (-5.9%)
Dec 13: $3,053.80→$3,097.30 (+1.4%)
Dec 14: $3,097.20→$3,048.20 (-1.6%)
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,952.40 (-3.3%)
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,909.90 (-1.5%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-16 10:00: O=$2,917.30 H=$2,955.00 L=$2,917.30 C=$2,937.50 (+0.7%)
12-16 11:00: O=$2,938.00 H=$2,951.80 L=$2,932.10 C=$2,946.40 (+0.3%)
12-16 12:00: O=$2,949.30 H=$2,951.30 L=$2,938.40 C=$2,943.80 (-0.2%)
12-16 13:00: O=$2,941.20 H=$2,948.60 L=$2,904.50 C=$2,904.50 (-1.2%)
12-16 14:00: O=$2,909.80 H=$2,939.90 L=$2,879.40 C=$2,929.80 (+0.7%)
12-16 15:00: O=$2,929.50 H=$2,963.30 L=$2,907.40 C=$2,950.80 (+0.7%)
12-16 16:00: O=$2,953.60 H=$2,957.10 L=$2,919.60 C=$2,932.80 (-0.7%)
12-16 17:00: O=$2,929.90 H=$2,946.20 L=$2,909.90 C=$2,909.90 (-0.7%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 40.2
RSI(14): 39.1
EMA(20): $2,941.15
EMA(50): $3,011.07
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $33.19
SOL:
Current Price: $127.47
50h Change: -2.51%
50h Range: $123.87 - $135.55
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 09: $133.29→$137.98 (+3.5%)
Dec 10: $137.86→$136.28 (-1.1%)
Dec 11: $136.27→$136.20 (-0.1%)
Dec 12: $136.47→$132.24 (-3.1%)
Dec 13: $132.26→$133.19 (+0.7%)
Dec 14: $133.01→$129.58 (-2.6%)
Dec 15: $129.56→$127.79 (-1.4%)
Dec 16: $127.68→$127.47 (-0.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-16 10:00: O=$126.21 H=$128.83 L=$126.21 C=$128.59 (+1.9%)
12-16 11:00: O=$128.50 H=$129.74 L=$128.07 C=$128.66 (+0.1%)
12-16 12:00: O=$128.66 H=$128.89 L=$128.31 C=$128.75 (+0.1%)
12-16 13:00: O=$128.40 H=$129.50 L=$126.84 C=$126.84 (-1.2%)
12-16 14:00: O=$127.18 H=$129.55 L=$126.35 C=$128.62 (+1.1%)
12-16 15:00: O=$128.73 H=$130.41 L=$127.38 C=$130.04 (+1.0%)
12-16 16:00: O=$129.67 H=$129.70 L=$127.96 C=$128.49 (-0.9%)
12-16 17:00: O=$128.37 H=$128.49 L=$127.36 C=$127.47 (-0.7%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 47.0
RSI(14): 46.8
EMA(20): $127.78
EMA(50): $128.93
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1.71
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.18
50h Change: -7.09%
50h Range: $12.00 - $13.30
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 09: $13.63→$14.59 (+7.0%)
Dec 10: $14.62→$14.18 (-3.0%)
Dec 11: $14.08→$13.54 (-3.8%)
Dec 12: $13.41→$13.11 (-2.2%)
Dec 13: $13.10→$13.37 (+2.1%)
Dec 14: $13.37→$12.86 (-3.8%)
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.37 (-4.5%)
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.18 (-1.3%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-16 10:00: O=$12.16 H=$12.37 L=$12.16 C=$12.32 (+1.3%)
12-16 11:00: O=$12.34 H=$12.35 L=$12.34 C=$12.35 (+0.0%)
12-16 12:00: O=$12.28 H=$12.28 L=$12.26 C=$12.26 (-0.1%)
12-16 13:00: O=$12.24 H=$12.24 L=$12.00 C=$12.03 (-1.7%)
12-16 14:00: O=$12.12 H=$12.21 L=$12.09 C=$12.21 (+0.7%)
12-16 15:00: O=$12.14 H=$12.35 L=$12.11 C=$12.35 (+1.7%)
12-16 16:00: O=$12.37 H=$12.37 L=$12.27 C=$12.28 (-0.7%)
12-16 17:00: O=$12.18 H=$12.18 L=$12.18 C=$12.18 (-0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 44.1
RSI(14): 40.0
EMA(20): $12.30
EMA(50): $12.65
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.11
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
ETH (SHORT): 0.0549 @ $2,926.40 (Current: $2,909.90, P&L: +0.56%)
TP: $2,875.00 (+1.8%)
SL: $2,990.00 (-2.2%)
Exit Plan: TP at $2,875 (1.9% move, ~2.5:1 R/R). SL at $2,990 above hour 16 consolidation and 1.5x ATR above entry. Exit early if price reclaims $3,000 with strong volume or if BTC shows sharp reversal that could lift the entire market.
AVAX (SHORT): 5.67 @ $12.20 (Current: $12.18, P&L: +0.12%)
TP: $11.90 (+2.4%)
SL: $12.50 (-2.5%)
Exit Plan: TP at $11.90 targets 2.5% below current price, extending the downtrend. SL at $12.50 above EMA20 at $12.46 and 3x ATR above entry for safety. Exit early if AVAX reclaims $12.60 with volume spike or if broader market shows coordinated reversal with BTC breaking above $87,000 resistance.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
SOL SHORT: 12-13 18:00 → 12-14 17:20 (23.3h)
Entry: $132.25, Exit: $129.97 P&L: +1.72% ($+2.01) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-12 18:00 → 12-15 00:00 (54.0h)
Entry: $3,073.70, Exit: $3,057.20 P&L: +0.54% ($+1.27) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-14 18:00 → 12-15 02:05 (8.1h)
Entry: $130.11, Exit: $132.17 P&L: -1.58% ($-1.38) [SL_HIT]
BTC SHORT: 12-14 12:00 → 12-15 12:00 (24.0h)
Entry: $89,322.00, Exit: $89,830.00 P&L: -0.57% ($-0.49) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-14 12:00 → 12-15 12:00 (24.0h)
Entry: $13.03, Exit: $13.21 P&L: -1.39% ($-0.54) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL LONG: 12-15 12:00 → 12-15 14:20 (2.3h)
Entry: $132.37, Exit: $134.87 P&L: +1.89% ($+1.10) [TP_HIT]
ETH LONG: 12-15 06:00 → 12-15 15:05 (9.1h)
Entry: $3,109.00, Exit: $3,052.50 P&L: -1.82% ($-2.63) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-16 04:50 (10.8h)
Entry: $12.30, Exit: $12.11 P&L: +1.55% ($+1.19) [TP_HIT]
BTC SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-16 12:50 (18.8h)
Entry: $85,790.00, Exit: $87,186.64 P&L: -1.63% ($-2.33) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-16 06:00 → 12-16 13:35 (7.6h)
Entry: $126.37, Exit: $129.35 P&L: -2.36% ($-2.03) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
SOL:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: SOL showing clear bearish structure: price at $127.47 below both EMA20 ($127.78) and EMA50 ($128.93). Recent candles show rejection at $130 level with lower highs forming. RSI(14) at 46.8 is neutral-weak, not oversold, leaving room for further downside. 7-day trend shows consistent decline from $138 to current levels. Recent 8h action shows failed bounce attempt (peaked at $130.41 hour 15, rejected back to $127.47). Previous SOL short on 12/16 was stopped out at $129.35, but that was during a temporary bounce - current setup shows renewed weakness. Targeting $124.50 support level (2.3% move), with SL above $130 resistance.
Confidence: 65%
Allocation: 18.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $124.50 targets next support level (~2.3% move, 2.2:1 R/R). SL at $130.00 above recent rejection high and ~1.5x ATR above entry ($1.71 ATR). Exit early if SOL reclaims $130 with strong volume or if BTC breaks above $88,000 triggering broader market rally. Conservative 18% allocation given recent SOL stop-out and existing margin usage.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $187.51
Allocation: 18.0% ($33.75 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $127.47
Size: 0.7900 coins
Notional value: $100.70
📝 Executing SHORT 0.79 SOL @ 3x with TP: $124, SL: $130
✅ Market order filled @ $127.27
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45114684365)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45114684871)
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC is in a bearish structure (price below EMA50 at $87,713) but showing short-term stabilization. Current price $86,921 is just above EMA20 at $86,841, with neutral RSI(14) at 49.9. Recent price action shows indecision with wicks in both directions. The 7-day trend shows consistent lower highs from $92k to current levels. With 40.8% margin already deployed and recent stop-outs on BTC shorts (12/15 and 12/16), waiting for clearer directional confirmation is prudent. Need to see either a decisive break below $86,000 for short entry or reclaim of $88,000+ for potential long.
Confidence: 60%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH short position is performing well (+0.56% P&L), currently at $2,909.90 vs entry $2,926.40. Price is trending toward TP at $2,875 (-$34.90 away, only 1.2% move needed). Strong bearish structure intact: price below both EMAs (EMA20: $2,941, EMA50: $3,011), RSI(14) at 39.1 showing weakness but not yet oversold enough for bounce. Recent 8h candles show consistent lower highs. CRITICAL: Trust the TP/SL system - it will execute 24/7. Manual close would forfeit the remaining 1.2% move to TP and incur unnecessary fees. Position is well-managed with SL at $2,990 protecting against reversal.
Confidence: 75%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: AVAX short position is slightly profitable (+0.12% P&L) at $12.18 vs entry $12.20. Price is $0.18 away from TP at $11.90 (needs 2.3% move). Strong bearish structure: price below both EMAs (EMA20: $12.30, EMA50: $12.65), RSI(14) at 40.0 showing weakness. Recent candles show failed bounce attempts with rejection at $12.35-$12.37 range. 7-day trend shows persistent decline from $14.59 to current levels. Position is well-positioned with SL at $12.50 providing adequate protection. Like ETH, trusting the TP/SL system is the correct approach - manual close would sacrifice the remaining move and incur fees. Let the position work toward TP.
Confidence: 70%
💾 Database saved: run_id=156
1 order(s) executed
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