Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-17 12:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-17 06:00:07
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $186.10
Margin Used: $108.59 (58.3%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-17 12:00:07 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-17 06:00:07 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-15 10:00 → 2025-12-17 12:00
BTC:
Current Price: $86,730.00
50h Change: -3.64%
50h Range: $85,011.00 - $90,326.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 10: $92,317.00→$91,522.00 (-0.9%)
Dec 11: $91,490.00→$92,413.00 (+1.0%)
Dec 12: $92,489.00→$90,040.00 (-2.6%)
Dec 13: $90,101.00→$90,353.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 14: $90,306.00→$88,334.00 (-2.2%)
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$86,345.00 (-2.3%)
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$87,542.00 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$86,730.00 (-0.9%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-17 04:00: O=$86,992.00 H=$87,152.00 L=$86,484.00 C=$86,521.00 (-0.5%)
12-17 05:00: O=$86,531.00 H=$86,531.00 L=$85,985.00 C=$86,380.00 (-0.2%)
12-17 06:00: O=$86,356.00 H=$86,704.00 L=$86,257.00 C=$86,427.00 (+0.1%)
12-17 07:00: O=$86,480.00 H=$86,757.00 L=$86,270.00 C=$86,732.00 (+0.3%)
12-17 08:00: O=$86,759.00 H=$86,807.00 L=$86,125.00 C=$86,195.00 (-0.7%)
12-17 09:00: O=$86,231.00 H=$86,412.00 L=$85,994.00 C=$86,151.00 (-0.1%)
12-17 10:00: O=$86,212.00 H=$86,607.00 L=$86,065.00 C=$86,397.00 (+0.2%)
12-17 11:00: O=$86,394.00 H=$86,874.00 L=$86,301.00 C=$86,730.00 (+0.4%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 52.1
RSI(14): 47.1
EMA(20): $86,771.90
EMA(50): $86,920.58
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $625.45
ETH:
Current Price: $2,918.00
50h Change: -7.28%
50h Range: $2,872.10 - $3,167.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 10: $3,320.10→$3,333.90 (+0.4%)
Dec 11: $3,334.10→$3,246.70 (-2.6%)
Dec 12: $3,245.00→$3,054.30 (-5.9%)
Dec 13: $3,053.80→$3,097.30 (+1.4%)
Dec 14: $3,097.20→$3,048.20 (-1.6%)
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,952.40 (-3.3%)
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,952.70 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,918.00 (-1.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-17 05:00: O=$2,923.10 H=$2,927.00 L=$2,900.10 C=$2,921.20 (-0.1%)
12-17 06:00: O=$2,920.10 H=$2,932.90 L=$2,917.10 C=$2,925.50 (+0.2%)
12-17 07:00: O=$2,925.40 H=$2,938.30 L=$2,915.70 C=$2,935.10 (+0.3%)
12-17 08:00: O=$2,935.50 H=$2,939.90 L=$2,914.40 C=$2,916.50 (-0.6%)
12-17 09:00: O=$2,918.10 H=$2,925.30 L=$2,910.20 C=$2,915.90 (-0.1%)
12-17 10:00: O=$2,916.00 H=$2,918.10 L=$2,900.00 C=$2,909.40 (-0.2%)
12-17 11:00: O=$2,912.60 H=$2,923.20 L=$2,909.80 C=$2,916.50 (+0.1%)
12-17 12:00: O=$2,918.00 H=$2,918.00 L=$2,918.00 C=$2,918.00 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 42.9
RSI(14): 42.6
EMA(20): $2,929.43
EMA(50): $2,951.36
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $23.00
SOL:
Current Price: $127.72
50h Change: -3.88%
50h Range: $123.87 - $135.55
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 10: $137.86→$136.28 (-1.1%)
Dec 11: $136.27→$136.20 (-0.1%)
Dec 12: $136.47→$132.24 (-3.1%)
Dec 13: $132.26→$133.19 (+0.7%)
Dec 14: $133.01→$129.58 (-2.6%)
Dec 15: $129.56→$127.79 (-1.4%)
Dec 16: $127.68→$129.42 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $129.17→$127.72 (-1.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-17 04:00: O=$128.34 H=$128.51 L=$127.53 C=$127.94 (-0.3%)
12-17 05:00: O=$127.90 H=$128.03 L=$127.22 C=$127.76 (-0.1%)
12-17 06:00: O=$127.71 H=$128.08 L=$127.68 C=$127.87 (+0.1%)
12-17 07:00: O=$127.94 H=$128.62 L=$127.82 C=$128.48 (+0.4%)
12-17 08:00: O=$128.30 H=$128.30 L=$126.91 C=$127.05 (-1.0%)
12-17 09:00: O=$126.93 H=$127.11 L=$126.06 C=$126.85 (-0.1%)
12-17 10:00: O=$126.73 H=$126.93 L=$126.35 C=$126.65 (-0.1%)
12-17 11:00: O=$126.61 H=$127.96 L=$126.55 C=$127.72 (+0.9%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 49.0
RSI(14): 47.6
EMA(20): $127.92
EMA(50): $127.86
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $1.24
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.10
50h Change: -8.47%
50h Range: $12.00 - $13.29
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 10: $14.62→$14.18 (-3.0%)
Dec 11: $14.08→$13.54 (-3.8%)
Dec 12: $13.41→$13.11 (-2.2%)
Dec 13: $13.10→$13.37 (+2.1%)
Dec 14: $13.37→$12.86 (-3.8%)
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.37 (-4.5%)
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.34 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $12.34→$12.10 (-2.0%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-17 03:00: O=$12.36 H=$12.36 L=$12.30 C=$12.31 (-0.4%)
12-17 04:00: O=$12.27 H=$12.27 L=$12.21 C=$12.21 (-0.4%)
12-17 05:00: O=$12.14 H=$12.18 L=$12.08 C=$12.13 (-0.0%)
12-17 06:00: O=$12.20 H=$12.20 L=$12.20 C=$12.20 (+0.0%)
12-17 07:00: O=$12.19 H=$12.19 L=$12.19 C=$12.19 (+0.0%)
12-17 08:00: O=$12.19 H=$12.19 L=$12.14 C=$12.14 (-0.4%)
12-17 09:00: O=$12.08 H=$12.10 L=$12.08 C=$12.09 (+0.0%)
12-17 10:00: O=$12.08 H=$12.10 L=$12.06 C=$12.10 (+0.1%)
⚠️ WARNING: Data is 2.0h old - asset may be inactive
Indicators:
RSI(7): 31.2
RSI(14): 36.3
EMA(20): $12.23
ATR(14): $0.07
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
SOL (SHORT): 0.79 @ $127.27 (Current: $127.72, P&L: -0.35%)
TP: $124.50 (+2.2%)
SL: $130.00 (-2.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $124.50 targets next support level (~2.3% move, 2.2:1 R/R). SL at $130.00 above recent rejection high and ~1.5x ATR above entry ($1.71 ATR). Exit early if SOL reclaims $130 with strong volume or if BTC breaks above $88,000 triggering broader market rally. Conservative 18% allocation given recent SOL stop-out and existing margin usage.
ETH (SHORT): 0.0549 @ $2,926.40 (Current: $2,918.00, P&L: +0.29%)
TP: $2,875.00 (+1.8%)
SL: $2,990.00 (-2.2%)
Exit Plan: TP at $2,875 (1.9% move, ~2.5:1 R/R). SL at $2,990 above hour 16 consolidation and 1.5x ATR above entry. Exit early if price reclaims $3,000 with strong volume or if BTC shows sharp reversal that could lift the entire market.
AVAX (SHORT): 5.67 @ $12.20 (Current: $12.10, P&L: +0.82%)
TP: $11.90 (+2.4%)
SL: $12.50 (-2.5%)
Exit Plan: TP at $11.90 targets 2.5% below current price, extending the downtrend. SL at $12.50 above EMA20 at $12.46 and 3x ATR above entry for safety. Exit early if AVAX reclaims $12.60 with volume spike or if broader market shows coordinated reversal with BTC breaking above $87,000 resistance.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
SOL SHORT: 12-13 18:00 → 12-14 17:20 (23.3h)
Entry: $132.25, Exit: $129.97 P&L: +1.72% ($+2.01) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-12 18:00 → 12-15 00:00 (54.0h)
Entry: $3,073.70, Exit: $3,057.20 P&L: +0.54% ($+1.27) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-14 18:00 → 12-15 02:05 (8.1h)
Entry: $130.11, Exit: $132.17 P&L: -1.58% ($-1.38) [SL_HIT]
BTC SHORT: 12-14 12:00 → 12-15 12:00 (24.0h)
Entry: $89,322.00, Exit: $89,830.00 P&L: -0.57% ($-0.49) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-14 12:00 → 12-15 12:00 (24.0h)
Entry: $13.03, Exit: $13.21 P&L: -1.39% ($-0.54) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL LONG: 12-15 12:00 → 12-15 14:20 (2.3h)
Entry: $132.37, Exit: $134.87 P&L: +1.89% ($+1.10) [TP_HIT]
ETH LONG: 12-15 06:00 → 12-15 15:05 (9.1h)
Entry: $3,109.00, Exit: $3,052.50 P&L: -1.82% ($-2.63) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-16 04:50 (10.8h)
Entry: $12.30, Exit: $12.11 P&L: +1.55% ($+1.19) [TP_HIT]
BTC SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-16 12:50 (18.8h)
Entry: $85,790.00, Exit: $87,186.64 P&L: -1.63% ($-2.33) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-16 06:00 → 12-16 13:35 (7.6h)
Entry: $126.37, Exit: $129.35 P&L: -2.36% ($-2.03) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC is in a clear bearish structure (price below both EMAs, -3.64% over 50h, consistent lower highs from $92k to $86k). However, RSI(14) at 47.1 is neutral, and recent 8h candles show consolidation around $86k-$87k with no clear directional conviction. Price is testing EMA20 resistance at $86,771. With 58.3% margin already deployed and recent stop-outs, waiting for clearer setup is prudent. Need either a confirmed breakdown below $85,800 with volume or a failed rally at $87,500 to re-enter short.
Confidence: 60%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH short is working (+0.29% P&L) and approaching TP at $2,875 (currently $2,918). Price remains below both EMAs in strong bearish structure (-7.28% over 50h). RSI(14) at 42.6 shows bearish momentum. Recent 8h candles show tight consolidation with no reversal signals. Trust the TP/SL system - position is well-placed with 2.5:1 R/R. No reason to manually close when thesis remains intact and TP is only $43 away. Let the automatic orders execute.
Confidence: 75%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SOL short is slightly negative (-0.35% P&L) but thesis remains valid. Price at $127.72 vs entry $127.27, still below EMA20 ($127.92) and in bearish structure. RSI(14) at 47.6 is neutral. Recent bounce from $126.06 to $127.72 is concerning but hasn't broken above $128.50 resistance or invalidated the setup. TP at $124.50 targets clear support level. With recent SOL stop-outs, maintaining discipline and trusting the SL at $130.00 is critical. Position sizing was conservative at 18% margin for this reason.
Confidence: 65%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: AVAX short is performing well (+0.82% P&L) with strong bearish structure intact. Price at $12.10 is below EMA20 ($12.23), RSI(14) at 36.3 shows continued weakness, and -8.47% over 50h confirms downtrend. Recent 8h candles show grinding lower with minimal bounces. TP at $11.90 is only $0.20 away (1.6% move remaining). Warning about 2h old data is noted but consolidation pattern suggests low volatility. Trust the TP/SL system - this is exactly the type of winning position that should run to target rather than being manually closed for small gains.
Confidence: 80%
💾 Database saved: run_id=159
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