Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-18 00:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-17 18:00:08
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $180.71
Margin Used: $44.29 (24.5%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-18 00:00:09 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-17 18:00:08 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-15 22:00 → 2025-12-18 00:00
BTC:
Current Price: $85,874.00
50h Change: -0.37%
50h Range: $83,826.00 - $89,971.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 11: $91,490.00→$92,413.00 (+1.0%)
Dec 12: $92,489.00→$90,040.00 (-2.6%)
Dec 13: $90,101.00→$90,353.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 14: $90,306.00→$88,334.00 (-2.2%)
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$86,345.00 (-2.3%)
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$87,542.00 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-17 16:00: O=$86,987.00 H=$87,525.00 L=$85,988.00 C=$86,684.00 (-0.3%)
12-17 17:00: O=$86,770.00 H=$86,893.00 L=$86,036.00 C=$86,196.00 (-0.7%)
12-17 18:00: O=$86,342.00 H=$86,631.00 L=$85,455.00 C=$85,614.00 (-0.8%)
12-17 19:00: O=$85,593.00 H=$85,920.00 L=$85,147.00 C=$85,665.00 (+0.1%)
12-17 20:00: O=$85,816.00 H=$85,972.00 L=$85,407.00 C=$85,620.00 (-0.2%)
12-17 21:00: O=$85,619.00 H=$85,765.00 L=$85,439.00 C=$85,686.00 (+0.1%)
12-17 22:00: O=$85,710.00 H=$86,128.00 L=$85,608.00 C=$86,032.00 (+0.4%)
12-17 23:00: O=$85,984.00 H=$85,984.00 L=$83,826.00 C=$85,874.00 (-0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 42.1
RSI(14): 44.4
EMA(20): $86,374.67
EMA(50): $86,615.46
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $958.30
ETH:
Current Price: $2,725.90
50h Change: -7.13%
50h Range: $2,711.20 - $3,016.10
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 11: $3,334.10→$3,246.70 (-2.6%)
Dec 12: $3,245.00→$3,054.30 (-5.9%)
Dec 13: $3,053.80→$3,097.30 (+1.4%)
Dec 14: $3,097.20→$3,048.20 (-1.6%)
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,952.40 (-3.3%)
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,952.70 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-17 16:00: O=$2,893.80 H=$2,917.40 L=$2,826.80 C=$2,853.20 (-1.4%)
12-17 17:00: O=$2,854.00 H=$2,870.40 L=$2,835.40 C=$2,840.70 (-0.5%)
12-17 18:00: O=$2,843.00 H=$2,853.80 L=$2,801.00 C=$2,802.40 (-1.4%)
12-17 19:00: O=$2,802.70 H=$2,810.30 L=$2,783.50 C=$2,810.00 (+0.3%)
12-17 20:00: O=$2,810.20 H=$2,823.10 L=$2,798.20 C=$2,810.30 (+0.0%)
12-17 21:00: O=$2,812.70 H=$2,820.40 L=$2,802.10 C=$2,808.80 (-0.1%)
12-17 22:00: O=$2,808.30 H=$2,826.10 L=$2,802.40 C=$2,823.20 (+0.5%)
12-17 23:00: O=$2,820.00 H=$2,823.00 L=$2,711.20 C=$2,725.90 (-3.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 17.8
RSI(14): 25.5
EMA(20): $2,859.87
EMA(50): $2,911.99
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $42.30
SOL:
Current Price: $123.21
50h Change: -2.04%
50h Range: $121.45 - $133.68
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 11: $136.27→$136.20 (-0.1%)
Dec 12: $136.47→$132.24 (-3.1%)
Dec 13: $132.26→$133.19 (+0.7%)
Dec 14: $133.01→$129.58 (-2.6%)
Dec 15: $129.56→$127.79 (-1.4%)
Dec 16: $127.68→$129.42 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-17 16:00: O=$126.80 H=$127.80 L=$123.86 C=$124.66 (-1.7%)
12-17 17:00: O=$124.76 H=$125.21 L=$122.72 C=$123.08 (-1.3%)
12-17 18:00: O=$123.22 H=$123.97 L=$121.78 C=$121.97 (-1.0%)
12-17 19:00: O=$122.12 H=$122.52 L=$121.45 C=$122.27 (+0.1%)
12-17 20:00: O=$122.34 H=$123.69 L=$122.15 C=$122.97 (+0.5%)
12-17 21:00: O=$122.94 H=$123.05 L=$122.01 C=$122.54 (-0.3%)
12-17 22:00: O=$122.39 H=$123.53 L=$122.15 C=$123.42 (+0.8%)
12-17 23:00: O=$123.50 H=$123.50 L=$122.88 C=$123.21 (-0.2%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 39.1
RSI(14): 42.1
EMA(20): $125.35
EMA(50): $127.07
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1.78
AVAX:
Current Price: $11.84
50h Change: -4.02%
50h Range: $11.76 - $12.54
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 11: $14.08→$13.54 (-3.8%)
Dec 12: $13.41→$13.11 (-2.2%)
Dec 13: $13.10→$13.37 (+2.1%)
Dec 14: $13.37→$12.86 (-3.8%)
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.37 (-4.5%)
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.34 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-17 16:00: O=$12.20 H=$12.20 L=$11.85 C=$11.96 (-2.0%)
12-17 17:00: O=$12.03 H=$12.03 L=$11.97 C=$12.03 (+0.0%)
12-17 18:00: O=$11.95 H=$11.98 L=$11.77 C=$11.77 (-1.6%)
12-17 19:00: O=$11.76 H=$11.76 L=$11.76 C=$11.76 (+0.0%)
12-17 20:00: O=$11.82 H=$11.92 L=$11.82 C=$11.91 (+0.7%)
12-17 21:00: O=$11.82 H=$11.83 L=$11.82 C=$11.83 (+0.1%)
12-17 22:00: O=$11.86 H=$11.86 L=$11.85 C=$11.86 (-0.0%)
12-17 23:00: O=$11.84 H=$11.84 L=$11.81 C=$11.84 (+0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 38.4
RSI(14): 40.5
EMA(20): $12.03
EMA(50): $12.18
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.10
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
SOL (SHORT): 1.08 @ $123.21 (Current: $123.21, P&L: -0.00%)
TP: $119.00 (+3.4%)
SL: $126.00 (-2.3%)
Exit Plan: TP at $119 (next support level, ~3.3% move). SL at $126 (above recent consolidation + 1.4x ATR). Close early if price reclaims $127.50 with volume, indicating failed breakdown. Breakdown from consolidation typically continues to next support.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
AVAX SHORT: 12-14 12:00 → 12-15 12:00 (24.0h)
Entry: $13.03, Exit: $13.21 P&L: -1.39% ($-0.54) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL LONG: 12-15 12:00 → 12-15 14:20 (2.3h)
Entry: $132.37, Exit: $134.87 P&L: +1.89% ($+1.10) [TP_HIT]
ETH LONG: 12-15 06:00 → 12-15 15:05 (9.1h)
Entry: $3,109.00, Exit: $3,052.50 P&L: -1.82% ($-2.63) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-16 04:50 (10.8h)
Entry: $12.30, Exit: $12.11 P&L: +1.55% ($+1.19) [TP_HIT]
BTC SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-16 12:50 (18.8h)
Entry: $85,790.00, Exit: $87,186.64 P&L: -1.63% ($-2.33) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-16 06:00 → 12-16 13:35 (7.6h)
Entry: $126.37, Exit: $129.35 P&L: -2.36% ($-2.03) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-16 06:00 → 12-17 15:05 (33.1h)
Entry: $12.20, Exit: $12.51 P&L: -2.60% ($-1.80) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-16 18:00 → 12-17 15:05 (21.1h)
Entry: $127.27, Exit: $130.32 P&L: -2.40% ($-2.41) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-17 15:20 (45.3h)
Entry: $2,926.40, Exit: $2,990.00 P&L: -2.17% ($-3.49) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-17 23:50 (5.8h)
Entry: $2,843.00, Exit: $2,779.54 P&L: +2.23% ($+3.34) [TP_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
ETH:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: ETH showing extreme weakness: -7.7% today, -7.13% over 50h. RSI(7) at 17.8 is deeply oversold BUT in strong downtrend this signals continuation not reversal. Price broke below $2,800 support decisively. Last candle's -3.3% drop to $2,711 low shows accelerating selling. Recent short closed at TP for +2.23% confirms bearish momentum. Price below both EMAs (20: $2,859, 50: $2,911). Current $2,725 is a bounce into resistance - ideal short entry. Target $2,650 support, then $2,550.
Confidence: 75%
Allocation: 30.0%
Leverage: 4x
Exit Plan: TP at $2,550 (next major support ~6.5% move, strong R:R). SL at $2,795 (~2.5% above entry, above $2,800 broken support turned resistance + 1.6x ATR buffer). Close early if RSI(14) crosses above 35 with price reclaiming $2,800, indicating failed breakdown. Downtrend continuation highly probable given momentum.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $180.71
Allocation: 30.0% ($54.21 margin)
Leverage: 4x
Current price: $2,725.90
Size: 0.0796 coins
Notional value: $216.98
📝 Executing SHORT 0.0796 ETH @ 4x with TP: $2,550, SL: $2,795
✅ Market order filled @ $2,725.60
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45187559640)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45187560658)
AVAX:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: AVAX in clear downtrend: -4% today, down from $14 to $11.84 over 7 days. Price below both EMAs (20: $12.03, 50: $12.18). RSI(14) at 40.5 shows weakness without oversold bounce risk. Recent consolidation at $11.76-$11.84 after breakdown from $12.20. Low volatility (ATR $0.10) suggests coiling for next move. Multiple resistance levels above ($12.00, $12.20, $12.35). Correlates with broader alt weakness. High probability of testing $11.50 then $11.00 psychological support.
Confidence: 70%
Allocation: 25.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $11.20 (5.4% move to next support level, good R:R given tight stop). SL at $12.10 (2.2% risk, above $12.00 psychological resistance + consolidation zone + 2.6x ATR). Close early if price reclaims $12.00 with volume spike, indicating failed breakdown. Downtrend structure intact, favor continuation.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $180.71
Allocation: 25.0% ($45.18 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $11.84
Size: 11.4500 coins
Notional value: $135.59
📝 Executing SHORT 11.45 AVAX @ 3x with TP: $11, SL: $12
✅ Market order filled @ $11.87
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45187563141)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45187563670)
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC showing bearish structure (price below both EMAs, consistent lower highs from $92k to $85k). RSI(14) at 44.4 indicates weakness but not oversold enough for reversal. Last candle's $83,826 wick suggests potential capitulation but need confirmation of bounce/accumulation. In downtrend, waiting for clearer setup - either breakdown below $83.8k for short continuation or reclaim of $87.5k resistance for trend change. Current positioning is indecisive.
Confidence: 0%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Already holding SHORT position from $123.21 with well-placed TP at $119 and SL at $126. Position is at entry price (breakeven). Recent price action shows consolidation around $122-123 after breakdown from $127. Multiple failed shorts in recent history suggest choppy conditions. Trust existing TP/SL setup - no reason to close manually as thesis (breakdown continuation) remains valid. Position sizing already committed (24.5% margin used total).
Confidence: 0%
💾 Database saved: run_id=161
2 order(s) executed
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