Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-18 06:00:01 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-18 00:00:09
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $175.46
Margin Used: $92.68 (52.8%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-18 06:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-18 00:00:09 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-16 04:00 → 2025-12-18 06:00
BTC:
Current Price: $86,066.00
50h Change: +0.41%
50h Range: $83,716.00 - $89,971.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 11: $91,490.00→$92,413.00 (+1.0%)
Dec 12: $92,489.00→$90,040.00 (-2.6%)
Dec 13: $90,101.00→$90,353.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 14: $90,306.00→$88,334.00 (-2.2%)
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$86,345.00 (-2.3%)
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$87,542.00 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$86,066.00 (+0.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-17 22:00: O=$85,710.00 H=$86,128.00 L=$85,608.00 C=$86,032.00 (+0.4%)
12-17 23:00: O=$85,984.00 H=$85,984.00 L=$83,826.00 C=$85,874.00 (-0.1%)
12-18 00:00: O=$86,000.00 H=$86,097.00 L=$83,993.00 C=$85,974.00 (-0.0%)
12-18 01:00: O=$86,000.00 H=$86,006.00 L=$83,716.00 C=$85,820.00 (-0.2%)
12-18 02:00: O=$84,500.00 H=$86,556.00 L=$84,211.00 C=$85,000.00 (+0.6%)
12-18 03:00: O=$84,500.00 H=$86,355.00 L=$84,211.00 C=$84,452.00 (-0.1%)
12-18 04:00: O=$84,500.00 H=$86,523.00 L=$84,426.00 C=$86,398.00 (+2.2%)
12-18 05:00: O=$86,338.00 H=$86,421.00 L=$84,211.00 C=$86,066.00 (-0.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 52.7
RSI(14): 49.8
EMA(20): $86,040.54
EMA(50): $86,575.16
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1406.33
ETH:
Current Price: $2,711.40
50h Change: -7.43%
50h Range: $2,711.10 - $3,016.10
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 11: $3,334.10→$3,246.70 (-2.6%)
Dec 12: $3,245.00→$3,054.30 (-5.9%)
Dec 13: $3,053.80→$3,097.30 (+1.4%)
Dec 14: $3,097.20→$3,048.20 (-1.6%)
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,952.40 (-3.3%)
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,952.70 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,711.40 (-0.5%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-17 22:00: O=$2,808.30 H=$2,826.10 L=$2,802.40 C=$2,823.20 (+0.5%)
12-17 23:00: O=$2,820.00 H=$2,823.00 L=$2,711.20 C=$2,725.90 (-3.3%)
12-18 00:00: O=$2,725.60 H=$2,829.40 L=$2,718.10 C=$2,828.50 (+3.8%)
12-18 01:00: O=$2,825.00 H=$2,826.60 L=$2,714.10 C=$2,715.60 (-3.9%)
12-18 02:00: O=$2,750.00 H=$2,833.70 L=$2,720.00 C=$2,750.00 (+0.0%)
12-18 03:00: O=$2,775.80 H=$2,827.10 L=$2,713.60 C=$2,784.70 (+0.3%)
12-18 04:00: O=$2,781.40 H=$2,827.30 L=$2,719.10 C=$2,723.70 (-2.1%)
12-18 05:00: O=$2,721.60 H=$2,821.10 L=$2,711.10 C=$2,711.40 (-0.4%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 36.3
RSI(14): 37.2
EMA(20): $2,809.11
EMA(50): $2,889.64
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $67.57
SOL:
Current Price: $122.48
50h Change: -3.28%
50h Range: $121.45 - $133.68
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 11: $136.27→$136.20 (-0.1%)
Dec 12: $136.47→$132.24 (-3.1%)
Dec 13: $132.26→$133.19 (+0.7%)
Dec 14: $133.01→$129.58 (-2.6%)
Dec 15: $129.56→$127.79 (-1.4%)
Dec 16: $127.68→$129.42 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$122.48 (-0.6%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-17 22:00: O=$122.39 H=$123.53 L=$122.15 C=$123.42 (+0.8%)
12-17 23:00: O=$123.50 H=$123.50 L=$122.88 C=$123.21 (-0.2%)
12-18 00:00: O=$123.20 H=$123.79 L=$123.13 C=$123.79 (+0.5%)
12-18 01:00: O=$123.64 H=$123.82 L=$123.08 C=$123.47 (-0.1%)
12-18 02:00: O=$123.36 H=$124.00 L=$123.21 C=$123.73 (+0.3%)
12-18 03:00: O=$123.63 H=$123.92 L=$123.08 C=$123.69 (+0.0%)
12-18 04:00: O=$123.65 H=$124.05 L=$123.65 C=$123.69 (+0.0%)
12-18 05:00: O=$123.65 H=$123.65 L=$122.41 C=$122.48 (-0.9%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 33.0
RSI(14): 38.8
EMA(20): $124.48
EMA(50): $126.69
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1.43
AVAX:
Current Price: $11.68
50h Change: -4.46%
50h Range: $11.66 - $12.54
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 11: $14.08→$13.54 (-3.8%)
Dec 12: $13.41→$13.11 (-2.2%)
Dec 13: $13.10→$13.37 (+2.1%)
Dec 14: $13.37→$12.86 (-3.8%)
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.37 (-4.5%)
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.34 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.68 (-1.6%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-17 22:00: O=$11.86 H=$11.86 L=$11.85 C=$11.86 (-0.0%)
12-17 23:00: O=$11.84 H=$11.84 L=$11.81 C=$11.84 (+0.1%)
12-18 00:00: O=$11.87 H=$11.87 L=$11.80 C=$11.80 (-0.6%)
12-18 01:00: O=$11.79 H=$11.79 L=$11.73 C=$11.76 (-0.3%)
12-18 02:00: O=$11.83 H=$11.86 L=$11.80 C=$11.83 (+0.0%)
12-18 03:00: O=$11.82 H=$11.82 L=$11.68 C=$11.72 (-0.8%)
12-18 04:00: O=$11.78 H=$11.78 L=$11.74 C=$11.74 (-0.3%)
12-18 05:00: O=$11.74 H=$11.74 L=$11.66 C=$11.68 (-0.5%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 32.4
RSI(14): 38.0
EMA(20): $11.90
EMA(50): $12.12
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.10
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
SOL (SHORT): 1.08 @ $123.21 (Current: $122.48, P&L: +0.59%)
TP: $119.00 (+3.4%)
SL: $126.00 (-2.3%)
Exit Plan: TP at $119 (next support level, ~3.3% move). SL at $126 (above recent consolidation + 1.4x ATR). Close early if price reclaims $127.50 with volume, indicating failed breakdown. Breakdown from consolidation typically continues to next support.
AVAX (SHORT): 11.45 @ $11.87 (Current: $11.68, P&L: +1.55%)
TP: $11.20 (+5.6%)
SL: $12.10 (-2.0%)
Exit Plan: TP at $11.20 (5.4% move to next support level, good R:R given tight stop). SL at $12.10 (2.2% risk, above $12.00 psychological resistance + consolidation zone + 2.6x ATR). Close early if price reclaims $12.00 with volume spike, indicating failed breakdown. Downtrend structure intact, favor continuation.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
SOL LONG: 12-15 12:00 → 12-15 14:20 (2.3h)
Entry: $132.37, Exit: $134.87 P&L: +1.89% ($+1.10) [TP_HIT]
ETH LONG: 12-15 06:00 → 12-15 15:05 (9.1h)
Entry: $3,109.00, Exit: $3,052.50 P&L: -1.82% ($-2.63) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-16 04:50 (10.8h)
Entry: $12.30, Exit: $12.11 P&L: +1.55% ($+1.19) [TP_HIT]
BTC SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-16 12:50 (18.8h)
Entry: $85,790.00, Exit: $87,186.64 P&L: -1.63% ($-2.33) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-16 06:00 → 12-16 13:35 (7.6h)
Entry: $126.37, Exit: $129.35 P&L: -2.36% ($-2.03) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-16 06:00 → 12-17 15:05 (33.1h)
Entry: $12.20, Exit: $12.51 P&L: -2.60% ($-1.80) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-16 18:00 → 12-17 15:05 (21.1h)
Entry: $127.27, Exit: $130.32 P&L: -2.40% ($-2.41) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-17 15:20 (45.3h)
Entry: $2,926.40, Exit: $2,990.00 P&L: -2.17% ($-3.49) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-17 23:50 (5.8h)
Entry: $2,843.00, Exit: $2,779.54 P&L: +2.23% ($+3.34) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 00:05 (0.1h)
Entry: $2,725.60, Exit: $2,828.10 P&L: -3.76% ($-8.16) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC is in a bearish trend (EMA20 < EMA50) with price consolidating around $86k after declining from $92k. Recent 8h candles show extreme volatility with wicks to $83,716 but recovery attempts. RSI neutral at 52.7/49.8 - no clear oversold signal. Price is near EMA20 ($86,040), which could act as resistance. Need confirmation of either breakdown below $84k or reclaim of $87.5k before entering. Current margin usage at 52.8% limits new position sizing anyway.
Confidence: 60%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH showing severe weakness (-7.43% over 50h, -7.7% yesterday alone) with strong bearish trend (EMA20 $2,809 < EMA50 $2,890). RSI oversold at 36.3/37.2 BUT in a downtrend, oversold can stay oversold. Recent 8h candles show violent whipsaws ($2,711-$2,829 range) indicating trapped traders and liquidations. Price at $2,711 near session lows. While SHORT bias is correct for trend, the extreme volatility (ATR $67.57) and recent failed entry (stopped out 6h ago at -3.76%) suggests waiting for clearer structure. Need consolidation or failed bounce to re-enter short safely.
Confidence: 65%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Existing SHORT position from $123.21, currently +0.59% profit at $122.48. Position is working as planned - breakdown from $129 consolidation continuing toward $119 TP target. Recent candles show steady decline with latest 5h candle dropping -0.9% to $122.48, approaching support. RSI at 33.0/38.8 oversold but in downtrend context this supports continuation. Price below both EMAs confirms bearish structure. TP at $119 is 2.5% away, SL at $126 is well-placed 2.8% above current price. TRUST THE TP/SL - no reason to manually close a profitable position that hasn't reached targets or invalidated thesis.
Confidence: 75%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Existing SHORT position from $11.87, currently +1.55% profit at $11.68. Position performing well - steady decline over past 8h with latest candle making new lows at $11.66. RSI deeply oversold at 32.4/38.0 but downtrend structure intact (price < EMA20 < EMA50). TP at $11.20 is 4.1% away (good R:R), SL at $12.10 is 3.6% above current price providing adequate buffer. Recent price action shows consistent lower lows without bounces, suggesting continuation likely. No volume spike or reclaim of resistance to invalidate thesis. TRUST THE PLAN - let the position run to TP.
Confidence: 80%
💾 Database saved: run_id=162
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