Output
============================================================
Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-18 12:00:00 UTC
============================================================
Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-18 06:00:08
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $173.11
Margin Used: $90.34 (52.2%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-18 12:00:09 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-18 06:00:08 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-16 10:00 → 2025-12-18 12:00
BTC:
Current Price: $85,636.00
50h Change: -0.70%
50h Range: $83,716.00 - $89,971.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 11: $91,490.00→$92,413.00 (+1.0%)
Dec 12: $92,489.00→$90,040.00 (-2.6%)
Dec 13: $90,101.00→$90,353.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 14: $90,306.00→$88,334.00 (-2.2%)
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$86,345.00 (-2.3%)
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$87,542.00 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,636.00 (-0.4%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-18 04:00: O=$84,500.00 H=$86,523.00 L=$84,426.00 C=$86,398.00 (+2.2%)
12-18 05:00: O=$86,338.00 H=$86,421.00 L=$84,211.00 C=$86,066.00 (-0.3%)
12-18 06:00: O=$85,682.00 H=$86,168.00 L=$84,268.00 C=$86,168.00 (+0.6%)
12-18 07:00: O=$85,763.00 H=$86,362.00 L=$84,442.00 C=$86,334.00 (+0.7%)
12-18 08:00: O=$85,763.00 H=$86,786.00 L=$84,752.00 C=$86,671.00 (+1.1%)
12-18 09:00: O=$85,763.00 H=$87,033.00 L=$84,690.00 C=$86,716.00 (+1.1%)
12-18 10:00: O=$86,716.00 H=$87,095.00 L=$85,221.00 C=$86,716.00 (+0.0%)
12-18 11:00: O=$87,000.00 H=$87,017.00 L=$85,045.00 C=$85,636.00 (-1.6%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 40.1
RSI(14): 44.9
EMA(20): $86,196.85
EMA(50): $86,618.86
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1627.30
ETH:
Current Price: $2,847.80
50h Change: -2.38%
50h Range: $2,711.10 - $3,016.10
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 11: $3,334.10→$3,246.70 (-2.6%)
Dec 12: $3,245.00→$3,054.30 (-5.9%)
Dec 13: $3,053.80→$3,097.30 (+1.4%)
Dec 14: $3,097.20→$3,048.20 (-1.6%)
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,952.40 (-3.3%)
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,952.70 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,847.80 (+4.5%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-18 05:00: O=$2,721.60 H=$2,821.10 L=$2,711.10 C=$2,711.40 (-0.4%)
12-18 06:00: O=$2,740.00 H=$2,817.60 L=$2,712.80 C=$2,752.90 (+0.5%)
12-18 07:00: O=$2,787.50 H=$2,821.30 L=$2,716.90 C=$2,720.30 (-2.4%)
12-18 08:00: O=$2,724.30 H=$2,839.90 L=$2,724.30 C=$2,834.90 (+4.1%)
12-18 09:00: O=$2,728.00 H=$2,846.80 L=$2,724.40 C=$2,739.20 (+0.4%)
12-18 10:00: O=$2,738.90 H=$2,848.60 L=$2,737.00 C=$2,807.90 (+2.5%)
12-18 11:00: O=$2,846.80 H=$2,847.80 L=$2,737.80 C=$2,746.30 (-3.5%)
12-18 12:00: O=$2,848.10 H=$2,848.10 L=$2,847.80 C=$2,847.80 (-0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 58.1
RSI(14): 53.0
EMA(20): $2,796.12
EMA(50): $2,870.58
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $85.23
SOL:
Current Price: $124.04
50h Change: -1.72%
50h Range: $121.45 - $133.68
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 11: $136.27→$136.20 (-0.1%)
Dec 12: $136.47→$132.24 (-3.1%)
Dec 13: $132.26→$133.19 (+0.7%)
Dec 14: $133.01→$129.58 (-2.6%)
Dec 15: $129.56→$127.79 (-1.4%)
Dec 16: $127.68→$129.42 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$124.07 (+0.7%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-18 04:00: O=$123.65 H=$124.05 L=$123.65 C=$123.69 (+0.0%)
12-18 05:00: O=$123.65 H=$123.65 L=$122.41 C=$122.48 (-0.9%)
12-18 06:00: O=$122.43 H=$122.91 L=$122.29 C=$122.85 (+0.3%)
12-18 07:00: O=$122.86 H=$123.37 L=$122.53 C=$122.91 (+0.0%)
12-18 08:00: O=$122.80 H=$123.43 L=$122.52 C=$122.94 (+0.1%)
12-18 09:00: O=$123.00 H=$123.86 L=$122.68 C=$123.72 (+0.6%)
12-18 10:00: O=$123.66 H=$124.16 L=$123.46 C=$123.83 (+0.1%)
12-18 11:00: O=$123.90 H=$124.05 L=$123.31 C=$124.04 (+0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 57.8
RSI(14): 47.3
EMA(20): $124.04
EMA(50): $126.34
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1.23
AVAX:
Current Price: $11.72
50h Change: -3.63%
50h Range: $11.66 - $12.54
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 11: $14.08→$13.54 (-3.8%)
Dec 12: $13.41→$13.11 (-2.2%)
Dec 13: $13.10→$13.37 (+2.1%)
Dec 14: $13.37→$12.86 (-3.8%)
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.37 (-4.5%)
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.34 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.72 (-1.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-18 04:00: O=$11.78 H=$11.78 L=$11.74 C=$11.74 (-0.3%)
12-18 05:00: O=$11.74 H=$11.74 L=$11.66 C=$11.68 (-0.5%)
12-18 06:00: O=$11.70 H=$11.73 L=$11.70 C=$11.70 (-0.0%)
12-18 07:00: O=$11.74 H=$11.77 L=$11.73 C=$11.73 (-0.1%)
12-18 08:00: O=$11.76 H=$11.79 L=$11.75 C=$11.75 (-0.1%)
12-18 09:00: O=$11.69 H=$11.73 L=$11.69 C=$11.73 (+0.4%)
12-18 10:00: O=$11.73 H=$11.78 L=$11.72 C=$11.78 (+0.4%)
12-18 11:00: O=$11.69 H=$11.73 L=$11.69 C=$11.72 (+0.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 40.7
RSI(14): 40.4
EMA(20): $11.83
EMA(50): $12.06
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.09
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
SOL (SHORT): 1.08 @ $123.21 (Current: $124.04, P&L: -0.67%)
TP: $119.00 (+3.4%)
SL: $126.00 (-2.3%)
Exit Plan: TP at $119 (next support level, ~3.3% move). SL at $126 (above recent consolidation + 1.4x ATR). Close early if price reclaims $127.50 with volume, indicating failed breakdown. Breakdown from consolidation typically continues to next support.
AVAX (SHORT): 11.45 @ $11.87 (Current: $11.72, P&L: +1.21%)
TP: $11.20 (+5.6%)
SL: $12.10 (-2.0%)
Exit Plan: TP at $11.20 (5.4% move to next support level, good R:R given tight stop). SL at $12.10 (2.2% risk, above $12.00 psychological resistance + consolidation zone + 2.6x ATR). Close early if price reclaims $12.00 with volume spike, indicating failed breakdown. Downtrend structure intact, favor continuation.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
SOL LONG: 12-15 12:00 → 12-15 14:20 (2.3h)
Entry: $132.37, Exit: $134.87 P&L: +1.89% ($+1.10) [TP_HIT]
ETH LONG: 12-15 06:00 → 12-15 15:05 (9.1h)
Entry: $3,109.00, Exit: $3,052.50 P&L: -1.82% ($-2.63) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-16 04:50 (10.8h)
Entry: $12.30, Exit: $12.11 P&L: +1.55% ($+1.19) [TP_HIT]
BTC SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-16 12:50 (18.8h)
Entry: $85,790.00, Exit: $87,186.64 P&L: -1.63% ($-2.33) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-16 06:00 → 12-16 13:35 (7.6h)
Entry: $126.37, Exit: $129.35 P&L: -2.36% ($-2.03) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-16 06:00 → 12-17 15:05 (33.1h)
Entry: $12.20, Exit: $12.51 P&L: -2.60% ($-1.80) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-16 18:00 → 12-17 15:05 (21.1h)
Entry: $127.27, Exit: $130.32 P&L: -2.40% ($-2.41) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-17 15:20 (45.3h)
Entry: $2,926.40, Exit: $2,990.00 P&L: -2.17% ($-3.49) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-17 23:50 (5.8h)
Entry: $2,843.00, Exit: $2,779.54 P&L: +2.23% ($+3.34) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 00:05 (0.1h)
Entry: $2,725.60, Exit: $2,828.10 P&L: -3.76% ($-8.16) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC showing bearish structure (EMA20 < EMA50, price below both EMAs) with -6.3% decline over 7 days. However, RSI(14) at 44.9 is neutral territory, not oversold enough for reversal. Recent 8h shows choppy consolidation $84.4k-$87k with latest candle dropping -1.6%. In bear market, need clear reversal confirmation (reclaim $87.5k+ with volume) before considering longs. Shorts risky here as we're near local lows and could get bear market bounce. No clear edge - wait for better setup.
Confidence: 60%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH in strong downtrend (-13.8% from Dec 11 high, -7.7% single day drop Dec 17) but showing bounce attempt today (+4.5%). Price at $2,847.80 still below EMA20 ($2,796) and EMA50 ($2,870), maintaining bearish structure. RSI(7) 58.1 and RSI(14) 53.0 show neutral momentum after oversold bounce. Recent candles extremely choppy with wide wicks indicating indecision. This looks like bear market relief rally, not reversal. Need to see sustained reclaim of $2,870+ for long thesis. Too risky to short into bounce. Wait for clarity.
Confidence: 55%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Holding existing SHORT from $123.21, current P&L -0.67% (underwater). Price at $124.04 exactly at EMA20, testing resistance. Recent 8h shows tight consolidation $122.29-$124.16 with small upward bias. RSI(7) 57.8 shows short-term strength but RSI(14) 47.3 still neutral. TP at $119 remains valid (next support), SL at $126 appropriate. Position thesis still intact - bearish EMA structure, -9.2% decline over 7 days. Trust the SL to protect if breakdown fails. Churning out now for small loss would be poor risk management when setup remains valid.
Confidence: 65%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Holding existing SHORT from $11.87, current P&L +1.21% (in profit). Price at $11.72 grinding lower as expected. Strong downtrend intact: -16.8% from Dec 11, bearish EMA structure (price < EMA20 < EMA50). Recent 8h shows tight range $11.66-$11.79, low volatility grind typical of weak markets. RSI(14) 40.4 approaching oversold but in downtrend this often means continuation. TP at $11.20 (5.6% from entry) is achievable, SL at $12.10 protects against failed breakdown. Position working as planned - trust the TP/SL system, no need to manually close profitable position prematurely.
Confidence: 70%
💾 Database saved: run_id=163
============================================================