Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-18 18:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-18 12:00:09
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $166.43
Margin Used: $0.00 (0.0%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-18 18:00:07 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-18 12:00:09 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-16 16:00 → 2025-12-18 18:00
BTC:
Current Price: $86,139.00
50h Change: -1.93%
50h Range: $83,716.00 - $89,971.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 11: $91,490.00→$92,413.00 (+1.0%)
Dec 12: $92,489.00→$90,040.00 (-2.6%)
Dec 13: $90,101.00→$90,353.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 14: $90,306.00→$88,334.00 (-2.2%)
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$86,345.00 (-2.3%)
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$87,542.00 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$86,139.00 (+0.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-18 10:00: O=$86,716.00 H=$87,095.00 L=$85,221.00 C=$86,716.00 (+0.0%)
12-18 11:00: O=$87,000.00 H=$87,017.00 L=$85,045.00 C=$85,636.00 (-1.6%)
12-18 12:00: O=$86,500.00 H=$87,004.00 L=$85,000.00 C=$86,843.00 (+0.4%)
12-18 13:00: O=$86,893.00 H=$88,785.00 L=$85,694.00 C=$88,777.00 (+2.2%)
12-18 14:00: O=$88,459.00 H=$88,962.00 L=$87,376.00 C=$87,886.00 (-0.6%)
12-18 15:00: O=$87,912.00 H=$88,852.00 L=$87,524.00 C=$88,188.00 (+0.3%)
12-18 16:00: O=$88,321.00 H=$88,388.00 L=$87,573.00 C=$87,748.00 (-0.6%)
12-18 17:00: O=$87,776.00 H=$87,776.00 L=$85,156.00 C=$86,139.00 (-1.9%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 41.3
RSI(14): 45.5
EMA(20): $86,808.58
EMA(50): $86,689.60
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $1713.80
ETH:
Current Price: $2,824.20
50h Change: -4.38%
50h Range: $2,711.10 - $3,016.10
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 11: $3,334.10→$3,246.70 (-2.6%)
Dec 12: $3,245.00→$3,054.30 (-5.9%)
Dec 13: $3,053.80→$3,097.30 (+1.4%)
Dec 14: $3,097.20→$3,048.20 (-1.6%)
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,952.40 (-3.3%)
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,952.70 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,824.20 (+3.6%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-18 10:00: O=$2,738.90 H=$2,848.60 L=$2,737.00 C=$2,807.90 (+2.5%)
12-18 11:00: O=$2,846.80 H=$2,847.80 L=$2,737.80 C=$2,746.30 (-3.5%)
12-18 12:00: O=$2,848.10 H=$2,861.60 L=$2,743.00 C=$2,858.40 (+0.4%)
12-18 13:00: O=$2,807.20 H=$2,953.20 L=$2,765.70 C=$2,942.60 (+4.8%)
12-18 14:00: O=$2,942.60 H=$2,957.50 L=$2,822.30 C=$2,827.70 (-3.9%)
12-18 15:00: O=$2,897.20 H=$2,937.20 L=$2,816.80 C=$2,854.40 (-1.5%)
12-18 16:00: O=$2,853.30 H=$2,955.90 L=$2,818.80 C=$2,834.40 (-0.7%)
12-18 17:00: O=$2,863.20 H=$2,934.60 L=$2,711.70 C=$2,824.20 (-1.4%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 50.6
RSI(14): 49.4
EMA(20): $2,819.00
EMA(50): $2,862.09
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $109.55
SOL:
Current Price: $122.91
50h Change: -5.21%
50h Range: $120.89 - $133.68
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 11: $136.27→$136.20 (-0.1%)
Dec 12: $136.47→$132.24 (-3.1%)
Dec 13: $132.26→$133.19 (+0.7%)
Dec 14: $133.01→$129.58 (-2.6%)
Dec 15: $129.56→$127.79 (-1.4%)
Dec 16: $127.68→$129.42 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$122.91 (-0.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-18 10:00: O=$123.66 H=$124.16 L=$123.46 C=$123.83 (+0.1%)
12-18 11:00: O=$123.90 H=$124.05 L=$123.31 C=$124.04 (+0.1%)
12-18 12:00: O=$124.07 H=$124.56 L=$123.70 C=$123.98 (-0.1%)
12-18 13:00: O=$124.09 H=$127.16 L=$124.09 C=$126.77 (+2.2%)
12-18 14:00: O=$126.70 H=$127.89 L=$124.84 C=$125.93 (-0.6%)
12-18 15:00: O=$125.91 H=$129.06 L=$125.76 C=$127.46 (+1.2%)
12-18 16:00: O=$127.50 H=$127.50 L=$126.26 C=$126.99 (-0.4%)
12-18 17:00: O=$126.86 H=$126.86 L=$120.89 C=$122.91 (-3.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 37.4
RSI(14): 41.1
EMA(20): $124.77
EMA(50): $125.99
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1.87
AVAX:
Current Price: $11.62
50h Change: -6.04%
50h Range: $11.45 - $12.54
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 11: $14.08→$13.54 (-3.8%)
Dec 12: $13.41→$13.11 (-2.2%)
Dec 13: $13.10→$13.37 (+2.1%)
Dec 14: $13.37→$12.86 (-3.8%)
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.37 (-4.5%)
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.34 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.62 (-2.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-18 10:00: O=$11.73 H=$11.78 L=$11.72 C=$11.78 (+0.4%)
12-18 11:00: O=$11.69 H=$11.73 L=$11.69 C=$11.72 (+0.3%)
12-18 12:00: O=$11.72 H=$11.74 L=$11.69 C=$11.74 (+0.2%)
12-18 13:00: O=$11.82 H=$12.20 L=$11.82 C=$12.15 (+2.7%)
12-18 14:00: O=$12.28 H=$12.28 L=$12.06 C=$12.06 (-1.8%)
12-18 15:00: O=$12.05 H=$12.24 L=$12.05 C=$12.17 (+1.0%)
12-18 16:00: O=$12.15 H=$12.15 L=$12.07 C=$12.13 (-0.2%)
12-18 17:00: O=$12.07 H=$12.07 L=$11.45 C=$11.62 (-3.8%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 34.8
RSI(14): 38.9
EMA(20): $11.89
EMA(50): $12.03
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.16
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
No open positions
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
AVAX SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-16 04:50 (10.8h)
Entry: $12.30, Exit: $12.11 P&L: +1.55% ($+1.19) [TP_HIT]
BTC SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-16 12:50 (18.8h)
Entry: $85,790.00, Exit: $87,186.64 P&L: -1.63% ($-2.33) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-16 06:00 → 12-16 13:35 (7.6h)
Entry: $126.37, Exit: $129.35 P&L: -2.36% ($-2.03) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-16 06:00 → 12-17 15:05 (33.1h)
Entry: $12.20, Exit: $12.51 P&L: -2.60% ($-1.80) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-16 18:00 → 12-17 15:05 (21.1h)
Entry: $127.27, Exit: $130.32 P&L: -2.40% ($-2.41) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-17 15:20 (45.3h)
Entry: $2,926.40, Exit: $2,990.00 P&L: -2.17% ($-3.49) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-17 23:50 (5.8h)
Entry: $2,843.00, Exit: $2,779.54 P&L: +2.23% ($+3.34) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 00:05 (0.1h)
Entry: $2,725.60, Exit: $2,828.10 P&L: -3.76% ($-8.16) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-18 13:50 (19.8h)
Entry: $123.21, Exit: $126.13 P&L: -2.37% ($-3.15) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 13:50 (13.8h)
Entry: $11.87, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.96% ($-2.66) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
ETH:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: ETH in clear downtrend with EMA(20) at $2,819 below EMA(50) at $2,862 (bearish structure). Massive -7.7% drop on Dec 17 followed by weak bounce. Current price $2,824 just above EMA(20) presents ideal short entry on resistance retest. Recent 17:00 candle showed rejection with wick to $2,934 before closing at $2,824, dumping to low of $2,711. RSI(14) at 49.4 is neutral, not overbought. This is a trend-following short with clear resistance overhead. ATR at $109.55 suggests setting wider stops.
Confidence: 65%
Allocation: 25.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $2,650 (6.2% move, near Dec 17 low of $2,711 with buffer). SL at $2,990 (5.9% above entry, 1.5x ATR = $164) to survive volatility. Exit early if price breaks and holds above EMA(50) at $2,862 with strong volume, invalidating bearish thesis. R:R = 1.05:1 but trend-following in confirmed downtrend.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $166.43
Allocation: 25.0% ($41.61 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $2,824.20
Size: 0.0442 coins
Notional value: $124.83
📝 Executing SHORT 0.0442 ETH @ 3x with TP: $2,650, SL: $2,990
✅ Market order filled @ $2,789.30
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45234546187)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45234548585)
SOL:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: SOL showing strongest bearish signals: price $122.91 well below both EMA(20) at $124.77 and EMA(50) at $125.99 (bearish trend). RSI(7) at 37.4 and RSI(14) at 41.1 indicate weakness without being oversold. Recent 17:00 candle crashed -3.1% with wick down to $120.89 (current 50h low). 7-day trend shows consistent decline from $136.27 to $122.91 (-9.8%). Failed to hold $125 support level. This is a trend continuation short with momentum.
Confidence: 70%
Allocation: 30.0%
Leverage: 4x
Exit Plan: TP at $118.00 (4.0% move, below recent low of $120.89 targeting psychological support). SL at $126.70 (3.1% above entry, ~2x ATR = $3.74) above recent 13:00 high. Exit early if price reclaims and holds above EMA(20) at $124.77 with bullish volume. R:R = 1.29:1 with strong trend alignment.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $166.43
Allocation: 30.0% ($49.93 margin)
Leverage: 4x
Current price: $122.91
Size: 1.6200 coins
Notional value: $199.11
📝 Executing SHORT 1.62 SOL @ 4x with TP: $118, SL: $127
✅ Market order filled @ $122.89
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45234552292)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45234552918)
AVAX:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: AVAX in steep downtrend: -6.04% over 50h, price $11.62 below EMA(20) at $11.89 and EMA(50) at $12.03 (bearish structure). RSI(7) at 34.8 and RSI(14) at 38.9 show weakness. Recent 17:00 candle dumped -3.8% with wick to $11.45 (50h low). 7-day decline from $14.08 to $11.62 (-17.5%) shows strong selling pressure. Multiple failed bounces. Current price near recent lows presents low-risk short entry with tight stop.
Confidence: 68%
Allocation: 25.0%
Leverage: 4x
Exit Plan: TP at $11.00 (5.3% move, psychological support below $11.45 low). SL at $12.05 (3.7% above entry, ~2.5x ATR = $0.40) above recent consolidation. Exit early if price breaks above $11.89 (EMA20) with strong volume reversal pattern. R:R = 1.44:1 with strong downtrend momentum and oversold RSI suggesting continuation before bounce.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $166.43
Allocation: 25.0% ($41.61 margin)
Leverage: 4x
Current price: $11.62
Size: 14.3200 coins
Notional value: $166.40
📝 Executing SHORT 14.32 AVAX @ 4x with TP: $11, SL: $12
✅ Market order filled @ $11.63
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45234556674)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45234557590)
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC showing indecision after failed bounce. Recent 17:00 candle dumped -1.9% from $87,776 to $86,139, creating a large wick down to $85,156. Price is near EMA(20) at $86,808 with RSI(7) at 41.3 suggesting neither oversold nor clear reversal. The 7-day trend shows consistent lower highs ($92,413→$90,040→$90,353→$88,334→$86,345→$87,542→$85,874). Without clear trend confirmation and given recent stop-loss hits on shorts during volatile bounces, waiting for clearer setup is prudent.
Confidence: 0%
💾 Database saved: run_id=164
3 order(s) executed
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