Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-19 00:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-18 18:00:07
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $175.06
Margin Used: $86.05 (49.2%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-19 00:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-18 18:00:07 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-16 22:00 → 2025-12-19 00:00
BTC:
Current Price: $85,063.00
50h Change: -2.82%
50h Range: $83,716.00 - $89,971.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 12: $92,489.00→$90,040.00 (-2.6%)
Dec 13: $90,101.00→$90,353.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 14: $90,306.00→$88,334.00 (-2.2%)
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$86,345.00 (-2.3%)
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$87,542.00 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-18 16:00: O=$88,321.00 H=$88,388.00 L=$87,573.00 C=$87,748.00 (-0.6%)
12-18 17:00: O=$87,776.00 H=$87,776.00 L=$85,156.00 C=$86,139.00 (-1.9%)
12-18 18:00: O=$86,078.00 H=$86,500.00 L=$85,467.00 C=$85,578.00 (-0.6%)
12-18 19:00: O=$85,655.00 H=$85,655.00 L=$84,071.00 C=$84,071.00 (-1.8%)
12-18 20:00: O=$84,102.00 H=$84,823.00 L=$84,099.00 C=$84,362.00 (+0.3%)
12-18 21:00: O=$84,362.00 H=$85,401.00 L=$84,351.00 C=$85,194.00 (+1.0%)
12-18 22:00: O=$85,239.00 H=$85,296.00 L=$84,898.00 C=$85,100.00 (-0.2%)
12-18 23:00: O=$85,174.00 H=$85,174.00 L=$84,913.00 C=$85,063.00 (-0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 40.7
RSI(14): 43.5
EMA(20): $85,945.38
EMA(50): $86,395.22
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1386.23
ETH:
Current Price: $2,812.90
50h Change: -4.38%
50h Range: $2,693.20 - $3,016.10
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 12: $3,245.00→$3,054.30 (-5.9%)
Dec 13: $3,053.80→$3,097.30 (+1.4%)
Dec 14: $3,097.20→$3,048.20 (-1.6%)
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,952.40 (-3.3%)
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,952.70 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,812.90 (+0.0%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-18 17:00: O=$2,863.20 H=$2,934.60 L=$2,711.70 C=$2,824.20 (-1.4%)
12-18 18:00: O=$2,789.30 H=$2,841.10 L=$2,728.00 C=$2,734.60 (-2.0%)
12-18 19:00: O=$2,733.20 H=$2,815.70 L=$2,693.20 C=$2,695.80 (-1.4%)
12-18 20:00: O=$2,745.00 H=$2,799.00 L=$2,695.10 C=$2,771.00 (+0.9%)
12-18 21:00: O=$2,772.20 H=$2,816.40 L=$2,772.20 C=$2,814.30 (+1.5%)
12-18 22:00: O=$2,813.90 H=$2,823.90 L=$2,806.00 C=$2,806.00 (-0.3%)
12-18 23:00: O=$2,810.90 H=$2,816.80 L=$2,808.40 C=$2,812.50 (+0.1%)
12-19 00:00: O=$2,812.90 H=$2,812.90 L=$2,812.90 C=$2,812.90 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 53.0
RSI(14): 50.7
EMA(20): $2,802.20
EMA(50): $2,841.38
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $86.18
SOL:
Current Price: $119.74
50h Change: -7.11%
50h Range: $117.10 - $133.68
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 12: $136.47→$132.24 (-3.1%)
Dec 13: $132.26→$133.19 (+0.7%)
Dec 14: $133.01→$129.58 (-2.6%)
Dec 15: $129.56→$127.79 (-1.4%)
Dec 16: $127.68→$129.42 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-18 16:00: O=$127.50 H=$127.50 L=$126.26 C=$126.99 (-0.4%)
12-18 17:00: O=$126.86 H=$126.86 L=$120.89 C=$122.91 (-3.1%)
12-18 18:00: O=$122.92 H=$123.95 L=$121.31 C=$121.62 (-1.1%)
12-18 19:00: O=$121.65 H=$121.65 L=$117.52 C=$117.84 (-3.1%)
12-18 20:00: O=$117.61 H=$119.02 L=$117.10 C=$117.10 (-0.4%)
12-18 21:00: O=$117.25 H=$120.05 L=$117.25 C=$119.94 (+2.3%)
12-18 22:00: O=$120.05 H=$120.20 L=$119.30 C=$119.92 (-0.1%)
12-18 23:00: O=$119.91 H=$120.06 L=$119.41 C=$119.74 (-0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 38.2
RSI(14): 40.0
EMA(20): $122.34
EMA(50): $124.93
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1.94
AVAX:
Current Price: $11.41
50h Change: -7.49%
50h Range: $11.30 - $12.54
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 12: $13.41→$13.11 (-2.2%)
Dec 13: $13.10→$13.37 (+2.1%)
Dec 14: $13.37→$12.86 (-3.8%)
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.37 (-4.5%)
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.34 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-18 16:00: O=$12.15 H=$12.15 L=$12.07 C=$12.13 (-0.2%)
12-18 17:00: O=$12.07 H=$12.07 L=$11.45 C=$11.62 (-3.8%)
12-18 18:00: O=$11.63 H=$11.74 L=$11.55 C=$11.55 (-0.7%)
12-18 19:00: O=$11.52 H=$11.53 L=$11.30 C=$11.33 (-1.6%)
12-18 20:00: O=$11.30 H=$11.42 L=$11.30 C=$11.37 (+0.6%)
12-18 21:00: O=$11.44 H=$11.54 L=$11.44 C=$11.52 (+0.7%)
12-18 22:00: O=$11.55 H=$11.57 L=$11.46 C=$11.46 (-0.8%)
12-18 23:00: O=$11.47 H=$11.47 L=$11.41 C=$11.41 (-0.5%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 34.9
RSI(14): 38.0
EMA(20): $11.69
EMA(50): $11.93
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.15
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
ETH (SHORT): 0.0442 @ $2,789.30 (Current: $2,812.90, P&L: -0.85%)
TP: $2,650.00 (+5.0%)
SL: $2,990.00 (-7.2%)
Exit Plan: TP at $2,650 (6.2% move, near Dec 17 low of $2,711 with buffer). SL at $2,990 (5.9% above entry, 1.5x ATR = $164) to survive volatility. Exit early if price breaks and holds above EMA(50) at $2,862 with strong volume, invalidating bearish thesis. R:R = 1.05:1 but trend-following in confirmed downtrend.
AVAX (SHORT): 14.32 @ $11.63 (Current: $11.41, P&L: +1.84%)
TP: $11.00 (+5.4%)
SL: $12.05 (-3.6%)
Exit Plan: TP at $11.00 (5.3% move, psychological support below $11.45 low). SL at $12.05 (3.7% above entry, ~2.5x ATR = $0.40) above recent consolidation. Exit early if price breaks above $11.89 (EMA20) with strong volume reversal pattern. R:R = 1.44:1 with strong downtrend momentum and oversold RSI suggesting continuation before bounce.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
BTC SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-16 12:50 (18.8h)
Entry: $85,790.00, Exit: $87,186.64 P&L: -1.63% ($-2.33) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-16 06:00 → 12-16 13:35 (7.6h)
Entry: $126.37, Exit: $129.35 P&L: -2.36% ($-2.03) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-16 06:00 → 12-17 15:05 (33.1h)
Entry: $12.20, Exit: $12.51 P&L: -2.60% ($-1.80) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-16 18:00 → 12-17 15:05 (21.1h)
Entry: $127.27, Exit: $130.32 P&L: -2.40% ($-2.41) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-17 15:20 (45.3h)
Entry: $2,926.40, Exit: $2,990.00 P&L: -2.17% ($-3.49) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-17 23:50 (5.8h)
Entry: $2,843.00, Exit: $2,779.54 P&L: +2.23% ($+3.34) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 00:05 (0.1h)
Entry: $2,725.60, Exit: $2,828.10 P&L: -3.76% ($-8.16) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-18 13:50 (19.8h)
Entry: $123.21, Exit: $126.13 P&L: -2.37% ($-3.15) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 13:50 (13.8h)
Entry: $11.87, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.96% ($-2.66) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-18 19:50 (1.8h)
Entry: $122.89, Exit: $118.21 P&L: +3.81% ($+7.58) [TP_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
SOL:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: SOL showing strongest bearish momentum: -7.11% over 50h, -12.6% from Dec 12 high. Price at $119.74 well below both EMAs (20: $122.34, 50: $124.93). RSI(7) at 38.2 and RSI(14) at 40.0 = oversold in downtrend suggests SHORT continuation, not bounce. Recent candles show failed rally attempt from $117.10 low, now stalling. Previous SHORT hit TP for +3.81% just hours ago, validating the bearish thesis. Entry here catches rejection from $120 resistance. Strong trend-following setup with 2 confirmations: EMA bearish alignment + RSI oversold in downtrend.
Confidence: 75%
Allocation: 20.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $114.50 (4.4% move, below Dec 18 low of $117.10 with buffer for continuation). SL at $122.80 (2.6% above entry, ~1.5x ATR = $2.91) above EMA(20) to survive volatility. Exit early if price breaks above $122.34 EMA(20) AND RSI(14) crosses 50 with strong volume, suggesting trend reversal. R:R = 1.7:1 with strong downtrend momentum. Total margin after entry: 49.2% + 20% = 69.2% (safe).
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $175.06
Allocation: 20.0% ($35.01 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $119.74
Size: 0.8800 coins
Notional value: $105.37
📝 Executing SHORT 0.88 SOL @ 3x with TP: $114, SL: $123
✅ Market order filled @ $119.59
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45252354546)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45252354976)
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC in clear downtrend (price below both EMAs, -2.82% over 50h, -11% from Dec 12 high). RSI(14) at 43.5 shows oversold in downtrend = continuation signal, not reversal. Recent candles show weak bounce from $84,071 low but no conviction. However, already at 49.2% margin usage - cannot safely add position without exceeding 80% limit. Price near recent low of $83,716 suggests potential support test. Wait for clearer signal: either break below $83,700 for short entry, or reclaim $86,400 EMA(50) with volume for potential long.
Confidence: 60%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH SHORT position currently +1.84% P&L, working as intended. Price at $2,812.90 vs entry $2,789.30. Recent 8h candles show consolidation after bounce from $2,693 low. Price slightly above EMA(20) at $2,802 but still below EMA(50) at $2,841 - bearish structure intact. RSI(14) at 50.7 = neutral, not overbought. TP at $2,650 remains valid target (prior low area). No reason to close early - thesis not invalidated. Trust the TP/SL orders to execute. Current small drawdown (-0.85%) is normal noise within stop loss tolerance.
Confidence: 70%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: AVAX SHORT position currently +1.84% P&L at $11.41 vs entry $11.63. Position working well - price made new low at $11.30 (50h low), showing continued weakness. RSI(7) at 34.9 and RSI(14) at 38.0 = deeply oversold in downtrend, classic SHORT continuation setup. Price below both EMAs confirms bearish structure. Recent candles show weak consolidation with no reversal pattern. TP at $11.00 remains valid (psychological level). No invalidation signals - price hasn't broken above $11.89 EMA(20) or shown volume reversal. Trust the TP/SL to execute automatically. Small profit is encouraging but not reason to exit early.
Confidence: 75%
💾 Database saved: run_id=165
1 order(s) executed
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