Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-19 06:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-19 00:00:08
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $165.79
Margin Used: $79.69 (48.1%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-19 06:00:07 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-19 00:00:08 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-17 04:00 → 2025-12-19 06:00
BTC:
Current Price: $86,892.00
50h Change: -0.11%
50h Range: $83,716.00 - $89,971.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 12: $92,489.00→$90,040.00 (-2.6%)
Dec 13: $90,101.00→$90,353.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 14: $90,306.00→$88,334.00 (-2.2%)
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$86,345.00 (-2.3%)
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$87,542.00 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$86,892.00 (+2.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-18 22:00: O=$85,239.00 H=$85,296.00 L=$84,898.00 C=$85,100.00 (-0.2%)
12-18 23:00: O=$85,174.00 H=$85,174.00 L=$84,913.00 C=$85,063.00 (-0.1%)
12-19 00:00: O=$85,064.00 H=$85,239.00 L=$84,898.00 C=$84,997.00 (-0.1%)
12-19 01:00: O=$85,346.00 H=$85,346.00 L=$84,817.00 C=$84,994.00 (-0.4%)
12-19 02:00: O=$85,022.00 H=$86,169.00 L=$84,317.00 C=$85,444.00 (+0.5%)
12-19 03:00: O=$85,461.00 H=$87,352.00 L=$85,461.00 C=$86,636.00 (+1.4%)
12-19 04:00: O=$86,724.00 H=$87,199.00 L=$86,724.00 C=$86,849.00 (+0.1%)
12-19 05:00: O=$86,849.00 H=$87,003.00 L=$86,491.00 C=$86,892.00 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 66.9
RSI(14): 56.0
EMA(20): $86,018.89
EMA(50): $86,234.16
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1233.43
ETH:
Current Price: $2,826.80
50h Change: -3.84%
50h Range: $2,693.20 - $3,016.10
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 12: $3,245.00→$3,054.30 (-5.9%)
Dec 13: $3,053.80→$3,097.30 (+1.4%)
Dec 14: $3,097.20→$3,048.20 (-1.6%)
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,952.40 (-3.3%)
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,952.70 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,826.80 (+0.5%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-18 23:00: O=$2,810.90 H=$2,816.80 L=$2,808.40 C=$2,812.50 (+0.1%)
12-19 00:00: O=$2,812.90 H=$2,830.20 L=$2,804.20 C=$2,807.30 (-0.2%)
12-19 01:00: O=$2,808.80 H=$2,823.30 L=$2,799.80 C=$2,810.20 (+0.0%)
12-19 02:00: O=$2,808.40 H=$2,826.30 L=$2,705.70 C=$2,826.30 (+0.6%)
12-19 03:00: O=$2,780.50 H=$2,915.50 L=$2,752.30 C=$2,898.00 (+4.2%)
12-19 04:00: O=$2,869.10 H=$2,919.80 L=$2,819.20 C=$2,832.10 (-1.3%)
12-19 05:00: O=$2,833.50 H=$2,910.00 L=$2,816.60 C=$2,910.00 (+2.7%)
12-19 06:00: O=$2,826.80 H=$2,826.80 L=$2,826.80 C=$2,826.80 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 49.2
RSI(14): 50.3
EMA(20): $2,825.25
EMA(50): $2,830.65
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $91.89
SOL:
Current Price: $122.68
50h Change: -4.41%
50h Range: $117.10 - $133.68
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 12: $136.47→$132.24 (-3.1%)
Dec 13: $132.26→$133.19 (+0.7%)
Dec 14: $133.01→$129.58 (-2.6%)
Dec 15: $129.56→$127.79 (-1.4%)
Dec 16: $127.68→$129.42 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Dec 19: $119.63→$122.68 (+2.5%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-18 22:00: O=$120.05 H=$120.20 L=$119.30 C=$119.92 (-0.1%)
12-18 23:00: O=$119.91 H=$120.06 L=$119.41 C=$119.74 (-0.1%)
12-19 00:00: O=$119.63 H=$119.92 L=$117.99 C=$118.53 (-0.9%)
12-19 01:00: O=$118.45 H=$118.63 L=$117.73 C=$118.39 (-0.1%)
12-19 02:00: O=$118.33 H=$119.22 L=$117.99 C=$119.05 (+0.6%)
12-19 03:00: O=$119.01 H=$122.54 L=$119.00 C=$121.62 (+2.2%)
12-19 04:00: O=$121.58 H=$123.13 L=$121.47 C=$122.91 (+1.1%)
12-19 05:00: O=$122.91 H=$123.13 L=$122.09 C=$122.68 (-0.2%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 61.0
RSI(14): 51.8
EMA(20): $121.68
EMA(50): $123.91
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1.87
AVAX:
Current Price: $11.75
50h Change: -4.19%
50h Range: $11.27 - $12.54
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 12: $13.41→$13.11 (-2.2%)
Dec 13: $13.10→$13.37 (+2.1%)
Dec 14: $13.37→$12.86 (-3.8%)
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.37 (-4.5%)
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.34 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Dec 19: $11.45→$11.75 (+2.6%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-18 21:00: O=$11.44 H=$11.54 L=$11.44 C=$11.52 (+0.7%)
12-18 22:00: O=$11.55 H=$11.57 L=$11.46 C=$11.46 (-0.8%)
12-18 23:00: O=$11.47 H=$11.47 L=$11.41 C=$11.41 (-0.5%)
12-19 00:00: O=$11.45 H=$11.45 L=$11.33 C=$11.37 (-0.8%)
12-19 01:00: O=$11.38 H=$11.38 L=$11.29 C=$11.34 (-0.4%)
12-19 02:00: O=$11.31 H=$11.38 L=$11.27 C=$11.36 (+0.5%)
12-19 03:00: O=$11.36 H=$11.79 L=$11.36 C=$11.76 (+3.5%)
12-19 04:00: O=$11.75 H=$11.75 L=$11.75 C=$11.75 (+0.0%)
⚠️ WARNING: Data is 2.0h old - asset may be inactive
Indicators:
RSI(7): 63.0
RSI(14): 51.7
EMA(20): $11.63
ATR(14): $0.15
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
ETH (SHORT): 0.0442 @ $2,789.30 (Current: $2,826.80, P&L: -1.34%)
TP: $2,650.00 (+5.0%)
SL: $2,990.00 (-7.2%)
Exit Plan: TP at $2,650 (6.2% move, near Dec 17 low of $2,711 with buffer). SL at $2,990 (5.9% above entry, 1.5x ATR = $164) to survive volatility. Exit early if price breaks and holds above EMA(50) at $2,862 with strong volume, invalidating bearish thesis. R:R = 1.05:1 but trend-following in confirmed downtrend.
AVAX (SHORT): 14.32 @ $11.63 (Current: $11.75, P&L: -1.07%)
TP: $11.00 (+5.4%)
SL: $12.05 (-3.6%)
Exit Plan: TP at $11.00 (5.3% move, psychological support below $11.45 low). SL at $12.05 (3.7% above entry, ~2.5x ATR = $0.40) above recent consolidation. Exit early if price breaks above $11.89 (EMA20) with strong volume reversal pattern. R:R = 1.44:1 with strong downtrend momentum and oversold RSI suggesting continuation before bounce.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
SOL SHORT: 12-16 06:00 → 12-16 13:35 (7.6h)
Entry: $126.37, Exit: $129.35 P&L: -2.36% ($-2.03) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-16 06:00 → 12-17 15:05 (33.1h)
Entry: $12.20, Exit: $12.51 P&L: -2.60% ($-1.80) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-16 18:00 → 12-17 15:05 (21.1h)
Entry: $127.27, Exit: $130.32 P&L: -2.40% ($-2.41) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-17 15:20 (45.3h)
Entry: $2,926.40, Exit: $2,990.00 P&L: -2.17% ($-3.49) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-17 23:50 (5.8h)
Entry: $2,843.00, Exit: $2,779.54 P&L: +2.23% ($+3.34) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 00:05 (0.1h)
Entry: $2,725.60, Exit: $2,828.10 P&L: -3.76% ($-8.16) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-18 13:50 (19.8h)
Entry: $123.21, Exit: $126.13 P&L: -2.37% ($-3.15) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 13:50 (13.8h)
Entry: $11.87, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.96% ($-2.66) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-18 19:50 (1.8h)
Entry: $122.89, Exit: $118.21 P&L: +3.81% ($+7.58) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 00:00 → 12-19 05:05 (5.1h)
Entry: $119.59, Exit: $122.80 P&L: -2.68% ($-2.82) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
ETH:
→ CLOSE
Reasoning: Closing ETH short despite -1.34% P&L. Position thesis invalidated by violent reversal: price spiked from $2,705 to $2,915 (7.8% move) in 3h window, breaking above entry at $2,789 and testing $2,910. This suggests capitulation low may be in at $2,705. Currently at $2,826 near EMA(20) at $2,825 - key inflection point. RSI normalized to 49-50 range. The extreme volatility (ATR $91) and sharp V-bottom pattern indicate potential trend change. Better to cut small loss now than risk further whipsaw or SL hit at $2,990. Can re-enter short on confirmed resistance rejection or look for long setup if support holds.
Confidence: 75%
Exit Plan: None
📝 Closing position for ETH (market order)
✅ Market close order filled
SOL:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: SOL in clear downtrend: -4.4% over 50h, price below both EMAs (20: $121.68, 50: $123.91), 7-day decline from $136 to $122. Recent bounce from $117.73 to $122.68 (+4.2%) is classic bear market relief rally - RSI(7) at 61 shows short-term overbought in downtrend context. Price rejected at $123.13 resistance (5h candle high). Strong short setup: enter on weakness, targeting retest of $117-118 lows. Multiple failed SL hits in history show volatility, but trend is clearly down. Entry at current levels with wide stop above $125 resistance cluster.
Confidence: 72%
Allocation: 25.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $117.50 (4.2% move, near recent low of $117.73 with buffer for final capitulation). SL at $125.50 (2.3% above entry, ~1.5x ATR = $2.80) above resistance cluster at $123-125. Exit early if price breaks and holds above EMA(50) at $123.91 with strong volume reversal pattern or if BTC rallies strongly above $88k. R:R = 1.8:1 with trend momentum favoring shorts.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $165.79
Allocation: 25.0% ($41.45 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $122.68
Size: 1.0100 coins
Notional value: $123.91
📝 Executing SHORT 1.01 SOL @ 3x with TP: $118, SL: $126
✅ Market order filled @ $122.63
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45267657043)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45267657326)
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC showing bounce from $84.9k low with +2.1% recovery today, but remains in bearish structure (price below both EMAs, 7-day downtrend from $92.5k to $86.9k). RSI(7) at 66.9 shows short-term overbought on bounce. Current margin usage at 48.1% limits new positions. Bounce lacks volume confirmation and could be dead-cat rally in ongoing downtrend. Need to see sustained break above $87.5k resistance and EMA(50) at $86.2k before considering longs. No clear short entry either - would need rejection at resistance with confirmation.
Confidence: 60%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Already holding AVAX short from $11.63, currently at $11.75 (-1.07% P&L). Position remains valid: price below EMA(20) at $11.63, strong downtrend from $13.41 to $11.75 over 7 days. Recent bounce from $11.27 to $11.75 (+4.3%) is typical bear rally. RSI(7) at 63 shows overbought on bounce. TP at $11.00 and SL at $12.05 remain appropriate. However, data is 2h stale (warning flag) - position could already be near TP or SL. Trust existing TP/SL orders to execute. No action needed - let position run per original plan. Current margin at 48.1% with new SOL short will bring total to ~73%, still within 80% limit.
Confidence: 70%
💾 Database saved: run_id=166
2 order(s) executed
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