Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-19 12:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-19 06:00:07
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $155.22
Margin Used: $0.00 (0.0%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-19 12:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-19 06:00:07 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-17 10:00 → 2025-12-19 12:00
BTC:
Current Price: $88,211.00
50h Change: +2.32%
50h Range: $83,716.00 - $89,971.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 12: $92,489.00→$90,040.00 (-2.6%)
Dec 13: $90,101.00→$90,353.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 14: $90,306.00→$88,334.00 (-2.2%)
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$86,345.00 (-2.3%)
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$87,542.00 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$88,211.00 (+3.7%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-19 04:00: O=$86,724.00 H=$87,199.00 L=$86,724.00 C=$86,849.00 (+0.1%)
12-19 05:00: O=$86,849.00 H=$87,003.00 L=$86,491.00 C=$86,892.00 (+0.0%)
12-19 06:00: O=$86,887.00 H=$87,248.00 L=$86,641.00 C=$87,197.00 (+0.4%)
12-19 07:00: O=$87,262.00 H=$88,138.00 L=$87,262.00 C=$87,714.00 (+0.5%)
12-19 08:00: O=$87,728.00 H=$89,197.00 L=$87,582.00 C=$88,132.00 (+0.5%)
12-19 09:00: O=$88,093.00 H=$88,151.00 L=$87,915.00 C=$88,120.00 (+0.0%)
12-19 10:00: O=$88,140.00 H=$88,328.00 L=$87,963.00 C=$88,282.00 (+0.2%)
12-19 11:00: O=$88,236.00 H=$88,389.00 L=$88,166.00 C=$88,211.00 (-0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 77.2
RSI(14): 64.9
EMA(20): $86,918.28
EMA(50): $86,419.16
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $1029.78
ETH:
Current Price: $2,929.30
50h Change: +0.46%
50h Range: $2,693.20 - $3,016.10
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 12: $3,245.00→$3,054.30 (-5.9%)
Dec 13: $3,053.80→$3,097.30 (+1.4%)
Dec 14: $3,097.20→$3,048.20 (-1.6%)
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,952.40 (-3.3%)
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,952.70 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,929.30 (+4.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-19 04:00: O=$2,869.10 H=$2,919.80 L=$2,819.20 C=$2,832.10 (-1.3%)
12-19 05:00: O=$2,833.50 H=$2,910.00 L=$2,816.60 C=$2,910.00 (+2.7%)
12-19 06:00: O=$2,826.80 H=$2,906.90 L=$2,815.00 C=$2,864.00 (+1.3%)
12-19 07:00: O=$2,863.00 H=$2,956.10 L=$2,831.60 C=$2,934.60 (+2.5%)
12-19 08:00: O=$2,938.00 H=$2,952.90 L=$2,844.50 C=$2,931.30 (-0.2%)
12-19 09:00: O=$2,853.90 H=$2,948.10 L=$2,849.80 C=$2,942.90 (+3.1%)
12-19 10:00: O=$2,854.90 H=$2,948.90 L=$2,849.30 C=$2,942.90 (+3.1%)
12-19 11:00: O=$2,943.80 H=$2,955.20 L=$2,850.70 C=$2,929.30 (-0.5%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 60.8
RSI(14): 57.5
EMA(20): $2,871.46
EMA(50): $2,830.99
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $97.48
SOL:
Current Price: $125.44
50h Change: -1.02%
50h Range: $117.10 - $133.68
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 12: $136.47→$132.24 (-3.1%)
Dec 13: $132.26→$133.19 (+0.7%)
Dec 14: $133.01→$129.58 (-2.6%)
Dec 15: $129.56→$127.79 (-1.4%)
Dec 16: $127.68→$129.42 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Dec 19: $119.63→$125.44 (+4.9%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-19 04:00: O=$121.58 H=$123.13 L=$121.47 C=$122.91 (+1.1%)
12-19 05:00: O=$122.91 H=$123.13 L=$122.09 C=$122.68 (-0.2%)
12-19 06:00: O=$122.70 H=$123.62 L=$122.39 C=$123.54 (+0.7%)
12-19 07:00: O=$123.59 H=$125.36 L=$123.59 C=$124.57 (+0.8%)
12-19 08:00: O=$124.58 H=$125.61 L=$124.00 C=$125.15 (+0.5%)
12-19 09:00: O=$125.07 H=$125.18 L=$124.51 C=$124.81 (-0.2%)
12-19 10:00: O=$124.84 H=$125.10 L=$124.68 C=$124.84 (+0.0%)
12-19 11:00: O=$124.84 H=$125.88 L=$124.78 C=$125.44 (+0.5%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 72.5
RSI(14): 61.6
EMA(20): $123.09
EMA(50): $123.56
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1.63
AVAX:
Current Price: $11.99
50h Change: -0.76%
50h Range: $11.27 - $12.54
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 12: $13.41→$13.11 (-2.2%)
Dec 13: $13.10→$13.37 (+2.1%)
Dec 14: $13.37→$12.86 (-3.8%)
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.37 (-4.5%)
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.34 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Dec 19: $11.45→$11.99 (+4.7%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-19 04:00: O=$11.75 H=$11.75 L=$11.75 C=$11.75 (+0.0%)
12-19 05:00: O=$11.75 H=$11.75 L=$11.75 C=$11.75 (+0.0%)
12-19 06:00: O=$11.75 H=$11.75 L=$11.75 C=$11.75 (+0.0%)
12-19 07:00: O=$12.06 H=$12.08 L=$12.06 C=$12.08 (+0.1%)
12-19 08:00: O=$12.08 H=$12.08 L=$12.08 C=$12.08 (+0.0%)
12-19 09:00: O=$12.08 H=$12.08 L=$12.08 C=$12.08 (+0.0%)
12-19 10:00: O=$12.00 H=$12.00 L=$11.92 C=$11.94 (-0.5%)
12-19 11:00: O=$11.94 H=$12.01 L=$11.93 C=$11.99 (+0.5%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 64.4
RSI(14): 58.5
EMA(20): $11.80
EMA(50): $11.82
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.13
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
No open positions
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
ETH SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-17 15:20 (45.3h)
Entry: $2,926.40, Exit: $2,990.00 P&L: -2.17% ($-3.49) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-17 23:50 (5.8h)
Entry: $2,843.00, Exit: $2,779.54 P&L: +2.23% ($+3.34) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 00:05 (0.1h)
Entry: $2,725.60, Exit: $2,828.10 P&L: -3.76% ($-8.16) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-18 13:50 (19.8h)
Entry: $123.21, Exit: $126.13 P&L: -2.37% ($-3.15) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 13:50 (13.8h)
Entry: $11.87, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.96% ($-2.66) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-18 19:50 (1.8h)
Entry: $122.89, Exit: $118.21 P&L: +3.81% ($+7.58) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 00:00 → 12-19 05:05 (5.1h)
Entry: $119.59, Exit: $122.80 P&L: -2.68% ($-2.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 06:00 (12.0h)
Entry: $2,789.30, Exit: $2,906.90 P&L: -4.22% ($-5.20) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 07:20 (13.3h)
Entry: $11.63, Exit: $12.08 P&L: -3.86% ($-6.43) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 06:00 → 12-19 09:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $122.63, Exit: $125.61 P&L: -2.43% ($-3.01) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
AVAX:
→ LONG
Reasoning: AVAX showing strongest setup: bounced +4.7% from $11.41 low, now at $11.99. Price crossed above both EMA(20) $11.80 and EMA(50) $11.82 - potential bullish crossover forming. RSI(14) at 58.5 (healthy, not overbought). Clear support established at $11.40-11.50 level (tested multiple times). ATR at $0.13 suggests setting stop at $11.50 (3.5x ATR = ~$11.55, round to $11.50 for safety). Target $12.80 resistance (Dec 14 level) gives 6.8% gain vs 4.1% risk = 1.65:1 R/R. Note: Data shows flat candles 04:00-06:00 and 07:00-09:00 (possible data issues), but recent price action 10:00-11:00 confirms move. Conservative position given portfolio drawdown.
Confidence: 65%
Allocation: 20.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $12.80 (Dec 14 resistance, +6.8% gain). SL at $11.50 (below recent support cluster, -4.1% loss). Exit early if: 1) Price fails to hold above $11.85 on next pullback (EMA support break), 2) BTC/ETH show sharp reversal dragging alts down, 3) Volume dries up indicating weak follow-through. R/R: 1.65:1. Position size conservative at 20% margin with 3x leverage (60% notional) given recent string of losses.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $155.22
Allocation: 20.0% ($31.04 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $11.99
Size: 7.7700 coins
Notional value: $93.16
📝 Executing LONG 7.77 AVAX @ 3x with TP: $13, SL: $12
✅ Market order filled @ $11.99
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45280019193)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45280019675)
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC showing strong recovery +3.7% today after bouncing from $85k support. RSI(7) at 77.2 is extremely overbought, indicating likely near-term pullback. Price above both EMAs (bullish structure) but momentum is overextended. Recent rally from $85k→$88k was fast and needs consolidation. Wait for pullback to $86.5-87k area or clear break above $89k resistance before entering. Current risk/reward unfavorable at these levels.
Confidence: 60%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH recovering +4.1% today but recent history shows extreme volatility (7 consecutive SL hits on shorts). Price bounced from $2,725 low and now testing $2,930 area. RSI(14) at 57.5 is neutral, not oversold. Above EMAs (bullish) but lacks strong confirmation. The violent whipsaws in recent sessions (see 8h candles with $100+ ranges) make this treacherous. Need clearer directional bias - either sustained break above $3,000 for longs or rejection back below $2,850 for shorts. Current chop is a position killer.
Confidence: 50%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SOL up +4.9% today but trading history shows brutal pattern: 4 out of 5 recent shorts hit stop loss, all during bounce attempts. Price at $125.44 vs EMA(50) at $123.56 - marginally above but EMA trend still bearish. RSI(7) at 72.5 overbought. This looks like a relief bounce within broader downtrend (Dec 12: $136→$119). However, the consistent SL hits prove this asset is extremely whippy. EMA crossover not confirmed yet. Wait for either: 1) Clear rejection at $126-127 resistance for short, or 2) Break above $128 with volume for long. Current level is no-man's land.
Confidence: 55%
💾 Database saved: run_id=167
1 order(s) executed
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