Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-19 18:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-19 12:00:08
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $155.87
Margin Used: $31.74 (20.4%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-19 18:00:07 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-19 12:00:08 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-17 16:00 → 2025-12-19 18:00
BTC:
Current Price: $87,107.00
50h Change: +0.14%
50h Range: $83,716.00 - $89,395.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 12: $92,489.00→$90,040.00 (-2.6%)
Dec 13: $90,101.00→$90,353.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 14: $90,306.00→$88,334.00 (-2.2%)
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$86,345.00 (-2.3%)
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$87,542.00 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$87,107.00 (+2.4%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-19 10:00: O=$88,140.00 H=$88,328.00 L=$87,963.00 C=$88,282.00 (+0.2%)
12-19 11:00: O=$88,236.00 H=$88,389.00 L=$88,166.00 C=$88,211.00 (-0.0%)
12-19 12:00: O=$88,241.00 H=$88,295.00 L=$87,956.00 C=$87,956.00 (-0.3%)
12-19 13:00: O=$87,988.00 H=$88,259.00 L=$87,878.00 C=$87,993.00 (+0.0%)
12-19 14:00: O=$88,037.00 H=$88,530.00 L=$87,589.00 C=$88,186.00 (+0.2%)
12-19 15:00: O=$88,170.00 H=$89,395.00 L=$87,769.00 C=$87,935.00 (-0.3%)
12-19 16:00: O=$87,931.00 H=$88,919.00 L=$87,902.00 C=$87,994.00 (+0.1%)
12-19 17:00: O=$88,035.00 H=$88,345.00 L=$86,968.00 C=$87,107.00 (-1.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 37.8
RSI(14): 48.0
EMA(20): $87,310.59
EMA(50): $86,498.20
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $1015.87
ETH:
Current Price: $2,900.60
50h Change: +0.23%
50h Range: $2,693.20 - $2,983.90
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 12: $3,245.00→$3,054.30 (-5.9%)
Dec 13: $3,053.80→$3,097.30 (+1.4%)
Dec 14: $3,097.20→$3,048.20 (-1.6%)
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,952.40 (-3.3%)
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,952.70 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,900.60 (+3.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-19 10:00: O=$2,854.90 H=$2,948.90 L=$2,849.30 C=$2,942.90 (+3.1%)
12-19 11:00: O=$2,943.80 H=$2,955.20 L=$2,850.70 C=$2,929.30 (-0.5%)
12-19 12:00: O=$2,928.70 H=$2,950.80 L=$2,847.90 C=$2,890.00 (-1.3%)
12-19 13:00: O=$2,917.20 H=$2,952.40 L=$2,890.00 C=$2,890.00 (-0.9%)
12-19 14:00: O=$2,923.50 H=$2,979.00 L=$2,868.80 C=$2,964.50 (+1.4%)
12-19 15:00: O=$2,960.00 H=$2,971.40 L=$2,888.00 C=$2,907.10 (-1.8%)
12-19 16:00: O=$2,950.00 H=$2,983.90 L=$2,920.00 C=$2,929.90 (-0.7%)
12-19 17:00: O=$2,932.00 H=$2,980.20 L=$2,900.60 C=$2,900.60 (-1.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 48.9
RSI(14): 51.9
EMA(20): $2,889.83
EMA(50): $2,829.54
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $93.29
SOL:
Current Price: $123.85
50h Change: -2.33%
50h Range: $117.10 - $129.06
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 12: $136.47→$132.24 (-3.1%)
Dec 13: $132.26→$133.19 (+0.7%)
Dec 14: $133.01→$129.58 (-2.6%)
Dec 15: $129.56→$127.79 (-1.4%)
Dec 16: $127.68→$129.42 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Dec 19: $119.63→$123.85 (+3.5%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-19 10:00: O=$124.84 H=$125.10 L=$124.68 C=$124.84 (+0.0%)
12-19 11:00: O=$124.84 H=$125.88 L=$124.78 C=$125.44 (+0.5%)
12-19 12:00: O=$125.56 H=$126.26 L=$125.09 C=$125.96 (+0.3%)
12-19 13:00: O=$126.01 H=$126.65 L=$125.81 C=$126.10 (+0.1%)
12-19 14:00: O=$126.06 H=$127.00 L=$124.96 C=$126.12 (+0.0%)
12-19 15:00: O=$126.07 H=$127.73 L=$124.98 C=$125.24 (-0.7%)
12-19 16:00: O=$125.14 H=$126.90 L=$124.99 C=$125.43 (+0.2%)
12-19 17:00: O=$125.44 H=$126.26 L=$123.85 C=$123.85 (-1.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 41.7
RSI(14): 47.6
EMA(20): $124.06
EMA(50): $123.19
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $1.70
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.10
50h Change: -0.83%
50h Range: $11.27 - $12.39
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 12: $13.41→$13.11 (-2.2%)
Dec 13: $13.10→$13.37 (+2.1%)
Dec 14: $13.37→$12.86 (-3.8%)
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.37 (-4.5%)
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.34 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Dec 19: $11.45→$12.10 (+5.6%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-19 10:00: O=$12.00 H=$12.00 L=$11.92 C=$11.94 (-0.5%)
12-19 11:00: O=$11.94 H=$12.01 L=$11.93 C=$11.99 (+0.5%)
12-19 12:00: O=$11.99 H=$12.00 L=$11.95 C=$11.98 (-0.1%)
12-19 13:00: O=$11.99 H=$12.01 L=$11.97 C=$12.01 (+0.2%)
12-19 14:00: O=$12.01 H=$12.17 L=$12.01 C=$12.13 (+1.0%)
12-19 15:00: O=$12.13 H=$12.33 L=$12.13 C=$12.18 (+0.4%)
12-19 16:00: O=$12.18 H=$12.39 L=$12.18 C=$12.31 (+1.1%)
12-19 17:00: O=$12.31 H=$12.35 L=$12.10 C=$12.10 (-1.7%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 56.8
RSI(14): 58.8
EMA(20): $11.95
EMA(50): $11.81
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $0.14
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
AVAX (LONG): 7.77 @ $11.99 (Current: $12.10, P&L: +0.89%)
TP: $12.80 (+6.7%)
SL: $11.50 (-4.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $12.80 (Dec 14 resistance, +6.8% gain). SL at $11.50 (below recent support cluster, -4.1% loss). Exit early if: 1) Price fails to hold above $11.85 on next pullback (EMA support break), 2) BTC/ETH show sharp reversal dragging alts down, 3) Volume dries up indicating weak follow-through. R/R: 1.65:1. Position size conservative at 20% margin with 3x leverage (60% notional) given recent string of losses.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
ETH SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-17 15:20 (45.3h)
Entry: $2,926.40, Exit: $2,990.00 P&L: -2.17% ($-3.49) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-17 23:50 (5.8h)
Entry: $2,843.00, Exit: $2,779.54 P&L: +2.23% ($+3.34) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 00:05 (0.1h)
Entry: $2,725.60, Exit: $2,828.10 P&L: -3.76% ($-8.16) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-18 13:50 (19.8h)
Entry: $123.21, Exit: $126.13 P&L: -2.37% ($-3.15) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 13:50 (13.8h)
Entry: $11.87, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.96% ($-2.66) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-18 19:50 (1.8h)
Entry: $122.89, Exit: $118.21 P&L: +3.81% ($+7.58) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 00:00 → 12-19 05:05 (5.1h)
Entry: $119.59, Exit: $122.80 P&L: -2.68% ($-2.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 06:00 (12.0h)
Entry: $2,789.30, Exit: $2,906.90 P&L: -4.22% ($-5.20) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 07:20 (13.3h)
Entry: $11.63, Exit: $12.08 P&L: -3.86% ($-6.43) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 06:00 → 12-19 09:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $122.63, Exit: $125.61 P&L: -2.43% ($-3.01) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC showing mixed signals in consolidation. Price at $87,107 near EMA(20) $87,310 with bullish EMA trend, but RSI(7) at 37.8 shows oversold in downtrend context. Recent 7-day action shows -8.3% decline from $92k to $85k low, now bouncing +2.4% today. Last hour showed -1.1% rejection from $88.3k. Market structure remains bearish (lower highs from $92k→$90k→$88k). Waiting for clearer directional break above $89.5k resistance or below $85k support. With 20.4% margin already deployed, preserving capital for better setups.
Confidence: 50%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH recovering from brutal -7.7% Dec 17 dump to $2,725 low, now +6.3% off bottom at $2,900. Price above both EMAs (bullish) but just got rejected at $2,980 resistance in last hour (-1.1%). RSI(14) at 51.9 neutral. Recent history shows 8 consecutive failed shorts getting stopped out - clear message to stop fighting the bounce. However, entry here lacks conviction: no clear breakout, sitting mid-range between $2,850 support and $2,980 resistance. Need to see either: 1) Clean break above $3,000 with volume for long, or 2) Failed bounce below $2,850 for short. Avoiding churn after -$17.94 in ETH losses.
Confidence: 45%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SOL at $123.85 after bouncing +3.5% from $117 low, but just rejected -1.3% in last hour from $126 resistance. Price sitting right at EMA(20) $124.06 support with weak bullish trend. RSI(7) 41.7 shows recent weakness. Chart shows clear downtrend: $136→$132→$129→$127→$123→$119, now attempting bounce. Recent trading history catastrophic: 4 failed shorts in row, all stopped out for -$8.58 total. Pattern clear - trying to short bounces in oversold conditions = bleeding capital. Current position lacks edge: no breakout confirmation, sitting mid-range. Need either clean reclaim of $127+ for long or breakdown below $122 for short. Respecting the lesson: stop forcing trades.
Confidence: 40%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Currently LONG 7.77 AVAX @ $11.99, now $12.10 (+0.89% unrealized). Position is working: +5.6% bounce today from $11.45 low, price above both EMAs with bullish trend, RSI(14) 58.8 showing momentum. However, last hour showed -1.7% rejection from $12.35 high, testing position. TP at $12.80 (+6.7%) and SL at $11.50 (-4.1%) are appropriately placed. CRITICAL RULE: Trust the TP/SL orders - they execute 24/7 automatically. Manual close should ONLY be used if thesis invalidated. Current thesis still valid: bounce continuation in bullish EMA structure. No signs of thesis breakdown: price holding above $12, EMAs supportive, no BTC collapse. Let the position run to TP or SL. Churning out early forfeits the edge.
Confidence: 65%
💾 Database saved: run_id=168
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