Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-20 00:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-19 18:00:07
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $157.16
Margin Used: $33.02 (21.0%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-20 00:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-19 18:00:07 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-17 22:00 → 2025-12-20 00:00
BTC:
Current Price: $88,313.00
50h Change: +3.04%
50h Range: $83,716.00 - $89,826.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 13: $90,101.00→$90,353.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 14: $90,306.00→$88,334.00 (-2.2%)
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$86,345.00 (-2.3%)
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$87,542.00 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$88,372.00 (+3.9%)
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,313.00 (-0.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-19 17:00: O=$88,035.00 H=$88,345.00 L=$86,968.00 C=$87,107.00 (-1.1%)
12-19 18:00: O=$86,996.00 H=$87,451.00 L=$86,958.00 C=$87,254.00 (+0.3%)
12-19 19:00: O=$87,207.00 H=$88,126.00 L=$87,205.00 C=$87,933.00 (+0.8%)
12-19 20:00: O=$87,923.00 H=$88,424.00 L=$87,674.00 C=$88,141.00 (+0.2%)
12-19 21:00: O=$88,160.00 H=$88,182.00 L=$87,931.00 C=$87,960.00 (-0.2%)
12-19 22:00: O=$87,962.00 H=$89,826.00 L=$87,962.00 C=$88,520.00 (+0.6%)
12-19 23:00: O=$88,454.00 H=$88,492.00 L=$88,305.00 C=$88,372.00 (-0.1%)
12-20 00:00: O=$88,372.00 H=$88,372.00 L=$88,307.00 C=$88,313.00 (-0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 60.6
RSI(14): 58.8
EMA(20): $87,714.47
EMA(50): $86,813.70
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $880.50
ETH:
Current Price: $2,982.80
50h Change: +6.21%
50h Range: $2,693.20 - $3,105.40
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 13: $3,053.80→$3,097.30 (+1.4%)
Dec 14: $3,097.20→$3,048.20 (-1.6%)
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,952.40 (-3.3%)
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,952.70 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,982.80 (+6.0%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-19 16:00: O=$2,950.00 H=$2,983.90 L=$2,920.00 C=$2,929.90 (-0.7%)
12-19 17:00: O=$2,932.00 H=$2,980.20 L=$2,900.60 C=$2,900.60 (-1.1%)
12-19 18:00: O=$2,937.50 H=$2,965.10 L=$2,901.30 C=$2,953.50 (+0.5%)
12-19 19:00: O=$2,932.00 H=$2,980.90 L=$2,932.00 C=$2,956.10 (+0.8%)
12-19 20:00: O=$2,957.30 H=$3,105.40 L=$2,944.90 C=$3,001.00 (+1.5%)
12-19 21:00: O=$3,029.90 H=$3,053.40 L=$2,982.00 C=$3,006.10 (-0.8%)
12-19 22:00: O=$2,997.10 H=$3,031.70 L=$2,981.40 C=$2,989.80 (-0.2%)
12-19 23:00: O=$3,007.70 H=$3,054.90 L=$2,980.30 C=$2,982.80 (-0.8%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 59.9
RSI(14): 54.0
EMA(20): $2,931.00
EMA(50): $2,848.81
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $89.01
SOL:
Current Price: $126.41
50h Change: +3.28%
50h Range: $117.10 - $129.06
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 13: $132.26→$133.19 (+0.7%)
Dec 14: $133.01→$129.58 (-2.6%)
Dec 15: $129.56→$127.79 (-1.4%)
Dec 16: $127.68→$129.42 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Dec 19: $119.63→$126.41 (+5.7%)
Dec 20: $126.34→$126.34 (+0.0%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-19 16:00: O=$125.14 H=$126.90 L=$124.99 C=$125.43 (+0.2%)
12-19 17:00: O=$125.44 H=$126.26 L=$123.85 C=$123.85 (-1.3%)
12-19 18:00: O=$124.03 H=$125.34 L=$123.80 C=$124.96 (+0.7%)
12-19 19:00: O=$124.90 H=$126.75 L=$124.90 C=$126.38 (+1.2%)
12-19 20:00: O=$126.36 H=$127.93 L=$126.32 C=$127.08 (+0.6%)
12-19 21:00: O=$127.26 H=$127.44 L=$126.67 C=$126.94 (-0.3%)
12-19 22:00: O=$126.97 H=$127.48 L=$126.94 C=$127.01 (+0.0%)
12-19 23:00: O=$126.93 H=$126.93 L=$126.37 C=$126.41 (-0.4%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 58.7
RSI(14): 58.5
EMA(20): $125.16
EMA(50): $123.62
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $1.47
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.24
50h Change: +3.14%
50h Range: $11.27 - $12.39
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 13: $13.10→$13.37 (+2.1%)
Dec 14: $13.37→$12.86 (-3.8%)
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.37 (-4.5%)
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.34 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Dec 19: $11.45→$12.24 (+6.8%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-19 16:00: O=$12.18 H=$12.39 L=$12.18 C=$12.31 (+1.1%)
12-19 17:00: O=$12.31 H=$12.35 L=$12.10 C=$12.10 (-1.7%)
12-19 18:00: O=$12.11 H=$12.19 L=$12.08 C=$12.19 (+0.7%)
12-19 19:00: O=$12.21 H=$12.34 L=$12.21 C=$12.32 (+0.9%)
12-19 20:00: O=$12.34 H=$12.35 L=$12.30 C=$12.35 (+0.1%)
12-19 21:00: O=$12.33 H=$12.33 L=$12.28 C=$12.28 (-0.4%)
12-19 22:00: O=$12.30 H=$12.32 L=$12.29 C=$12.31 (+0.0%)
12-19 23:00: O=$12.28 H=$12.28 L=$12.24 C=$12.24 (-0.4%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 56.2
RSI(14): 58.8
EMA(20): $12.10
EMA(50): $11.86
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $0.12
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
AVAX (LONG): 7.77 @ $11.99 (Current: $12.24, P&L: +2.03%)
TP: $12.80 (+6.7%)
SL: $11.50 (-4.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $12.80 (Dec 14 resistance, +6.8% gain). SL at $11.50 (below recent support cluster, -4.1% loss). Exit early if: 1) Price fails to hold above $11.85 on next pullback (EMA support break), 2) BTC/ETH show sharp reversal dragging alts down, 3) Volume dries up indicating weak follow-through. R/R: 1.65:1. Position size conservative at 20% margin with 3x leverage (60% notional) given recent string of losses.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
ETH SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-17 15:20 (45.3h)
Entry: $2,926.40, Exit: $2,990.00 P&L: -2.17% ($-3.49) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-17 23:50 (5.8h)
Entry: $2,843.00, Exit: $2,779.54 P&L: +2.23% ($+3.34) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 00:05 (0.1h)
Entry: $2,725.60, Exit: $2,828.10 P&L: -3.76% ($-8.16) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-18 13:50 (19.8h)
Entry: $123.21, Exit: $126.13 P&L: -2.37% ($-3.15) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 13:50 (13.8h)
Entry: $11.87, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.96% ($-2.66) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-18 19:50 (1.8h)
Entry: $122.89, Exit: $118.21 P&L: +3.81% ($+7.58) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 00:00 → 12-19 05:05 (5.1h)
Entry: $119.59, Exit: $122.80 P&L: -2.68% ($-2.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 06:00 (12.0h)
Entry: $2,789.30, Exit: $2,906.90 P&L: -4.22% ($-5.20) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 07:20 (13.3h)
Entry: $11.63, Exit: $12.08 P&L: -3.86% ($-6.43) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 06:00 → 12-19 09:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $122.63, Exit: $125.61 P&L: -2.43% ($-3.01) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC showing recovery from $83.7k low with +3.9% bounce on Dec 19, now consolidating at $88.3k. Price above both EMA(20) $87.7k and EMA(50) $86.8k confirming bullish structure. RSI(14) 58.8 neutral, not overbought. However, recent spike to $89.8k rejected quickly, and we're in a broader downtrend from $90k+ levels. With 21% margin already deployed on AVAX, adding BTC exposure here lacks clear entry catalyst. Would prefer either: 1) pullback to $86.5-87k support for better R/R, or 2) clean break above $90k resistance. Current position offers poor R/R at range middle.
Confidence: 50%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH showing strongest recovery +6.2% from $2.69k low, outperforming BTC. Price reclaimed EMA(20) $2.93k and EMA(50) $2.85k - bullish structure restored after Dec 17 crash to $2.72k. Spike to $3.10k shows strong buying but quick rejection indicates resistance. RSI(14) 54 neutral. CRITICAL LESSON: My 9 recent trades show 7 losses, mostly from fighting the trend with premature shorts. ETH clearly in recovery mode - shorting here would repeat same mistake. However, after violent moves and at current levels near $3k psychological resistance, prefer to wait for: 1) successful retest of $2.90-2.95 support, or 2) breakout above $3.10k. No edge at current price with existing AVAX exposure.
Confidence: 45%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SOL bounced +5.7% from $117 low to $126.4, reclaiming both EMAs (20: $125.2, 50: $123.6). Bullish structure but showing fatigue - last 4 hourly candles declining from $127 to $126.4. RSI(14) 58.5 neutral. My recent SOL trading record is TERRIBLE: 4 consecutive stopped-out shorts fighting the recovery. Pattern is clear - I've been shorting bounces too early. SOL needs to prove itself either way: break above $129 resistance or fail back below $124 support. At mid-range with declining momentum and existing AVAX long correlation risk (both alts move together), no compelling setup. ATR $1.47 suggests stops would need to be $2+ wide, reducing R/R at current levels.
Confidence: 40%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: AVAX long opened at $11.99 now +2.03% at $12.24. Position working as planned - price holding above EMA(20) $12.10 support. Recent 4 candles show consolidation $12.24-12.35 after strong +6.8% bounce from $11.41. TP at $12.80 still valid (Dec 14 resistance), SL at $11.50 appropriate (1.5x ATR). CRITICAL: Trust the TP/SL orders - they execute 24/7. Position is only +2%, well short of +6.7% target. Manual close here would: 1) Lock in minimal gain vs. full potential, 2) Cost unnecessary fees, 3) Violate my own rule about letting winners run. Exit plan clearly states early exit conditions (EMA break, BTC reversal, volume failure) - none triggered. Price action healthy with consolidation after bounce. HOLD and let TP/SL do their job.
Confidence: 70%
💾 Database saved: run_id=169
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