Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-20 06:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-20 00:00:08
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $157.06
Margin Used: $32.93 (21.0%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-20 06:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-20 00:00:08 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-18 04:00 → 2025-12-20 06:00
BTC:
Current Price: $88,344.00
50h Change: +4.55%
50h Range: $84,071.00 - $89,826.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 13: $90,101.00→$90,353.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 14: $90,306.00→$88,334.00 (-2.2%)
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$86,345.00 (-2.3%)
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$87,542.00 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$88,372.00 (+3.9%)
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,344.00 (-0.0%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-19 22:00: O=$87,962.00 H=$89,826.00 L=$87,962.00 C=$88,520.00 (+0.6%)
12-19 23:00: O=$88,454.00 H=$88,492.00 L=$88,305.00 C=$88,372.00 (-0.1%)
12-20 00:00: O=$88,372.00 H=$88,388.00 L=$88,105.00 C=$88,189.00 (-0.2%)
12-20 01:00: O=$88,185.00 H=$88,301.00 L=$88,169.00 C=$88,239.00 (+0.1%)
12-20 02:00: O=$88,212.00 H=$88,448.00 L=$88,104.00 C=$88,384.00 (+0.2%)
12-20 03:00: O=$88,321.00 H=$88,502.00 L=$88,307.00 C=$88,384.00 (+0.1%)
12-20 04:00: O=$88,384.00 H=$88,696.00 L=$88,270.00 C=$88,482.00 (+0.1%)
12-20 05:00: O=$88,491.00 H=$88,805.00 L=$88,344.00 C=$88,344.00 (-0.2%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 57.6
RSI(14): 56.5
EMA(20): $87,991.95
EMA(50): $87,089.90
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $720.46
ETH:
Current Price: $3,026.70
50h Change: +8.82%
50h Range: $2,693.20 - $3,105.40
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 13: $3,053.80→$3,097.30 (+1.4%)
Dec 14: $3,097.20→$3,048.20 (-1.6%)
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,952.40 (-3.3%)
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,952.70 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,982.80 (+6.0%)
Dec 20: $3,010.20→$3,026.70 (+0.5%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-19 22:00: O=$2,997.10 H=$3,031.70 L=$2,981.40 C=$2,989.80 (-0.2%)
12-19 23:00: O=$3,007.70 H=$3,054.90 L=$2,980.30 C=$2,982.80 (-0.8%)
12-20 00:00: O=$3,010.20 H=$3,010.20 L=$2,973.30 C=$2,996.50 (-0.5%)
12-20 01:00: O=$3,007.10 H=$3,014.90 L=$2,976.60 C=$3,008.90 (+0.1%)
12-20 02:00: O=$3,009.20 H=$3,030.50 L=$2,977.20 C=$2,986.60 (-0.8%)
12-20 03:00: O=$3,018.70 H=$3,033.10 L=$2,986.90 C=$3,030.00 (+0.4%)
12-20 04:00: O=$2,994.50 H=$3,030.90 L=$2,986.20 C=$3,024.70 (+1.0%)
12-20 05:00: O=$2,989.50 H=$3,031.30 L=$2,988.60 C=$3,026.70 (+1.2%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 65.7
RSI(14): 61.4
EMA(20): $2,968.86
EMA(50): $2,877.72
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $73.23
SOL:
Current Price: $126.56
50h Change: +2.35%
50h Range: $117.10 - $129.06
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 13: $132.26→$133.19 (+0.7%)
Dec 14: $133.01→$129.58 (-2.6%)
Dec 15: $129.56→$127.79 (-1.4%)
Dec 16: $127.68→$129.42 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Dec 19: $119.63→$126.41 (+5.7%)
Dec 20: $126.34→$126.56 (+0.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-19 22:00: O=$126.97 H=$127.48 L=$126.94 C=$127.01 (+0.0%)
12-19 23:00: O=$126.93 H=$126.93 L=$126.37 C=$126.41 (-0.4%)
12-20 00:00: O=$126.34 H=$126.41 L=$125.77 C=$125.91 (-0.3%)
12-20 01:00: O=$125.87 H=$126.20 L=$125.68 C=$125.73 (-0.1%)
12-20 02:00: O=$125.69 H=$126.30 L=$125.40 C=$126.02 (+0.3%)
12-20 03:00: O=$125.99 H=$126.66 L=$125.65 C=$126.33 (+0.3%)
12-20 04:00: O=$126.34 H=$126.59 L=$126.03 C=$126.38 (+0.0%)
12-20 05:00: O=$126.39 H=$126.82 L=$126.23 C=$126.56 (+0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 61.1
RSI(14): 55.8
EMA(20): $125.67
EMA(50): $123.93
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $1.20
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.24
50h Change: +3.97%
50h Range: $11.27 - $12.39
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 13: $13.10→$13.37 (+2.1%)
Dec 14: $13.37→$12.86 (-3.8%)
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.37 (-4.5%)
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.34 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Dec 19: $11.45→$12.24 (+6.8%)
Dec 20: $12.25→$12.24 (-0.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-19 22:00: O=$12.30 H=$12.32 L=$12.29 C=$12.31 (+0.0%)
12-19 23:00: O=$12.28 H=$12.28 L=$12.24 C=$12.24 (-0.4%)
12-20 00:00: O=$12.25 H=$12.26 L=$12.22 C=$12.22 (-0.3%)
12-20 01:00: O=$12.21 H=$12.21 L=$12.21 C=$12.21 (+0.0%)
12-20 02:00: O=$12.20 H=$12.24 L=$12.20 C=$12.24 (+0.3%)
12-20 03:00: O=$12.22 H=$12.27 L=$12.22 C=$12.27 (+0.4%)
12-20 04:00: O=$12.25 H=$12.25 L=$12.20 C=$12.21 (-0.4%)
12-20 05:00: O=$12.24 H=$12.27 L=$12.24 C=$12.24 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 55.2
RSI(14): 56.8
EMA(20): $12.16
EMA(50): $11.91
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $0.09
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
AVAX (LONG): 7.77 @ $11.99 (Current: $12.24, P&L: +2.09%)
TP: $12.80 (+6.7%)
SL: $11.50 (-4.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $12.80 (Dec 14 resistance, +6.8% gain). SL at $11.50 (below recent support cluster, -4.1% loss). Exit early if: 1) Price fails to hold above $11.85 on next pullback (EMA support break), 2) BTC/ETH show sharp reversal dragging alts down, 3) Volume dries up indicating weak follow-through. R/R: 1.65:1. Position size conservative at 20% margin with 3x leverage (60% notional) given recent string of losses.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
ETH SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-17 15:20 (45.3h)
Entry: $2,926.40, Exit: $2,990.00 P&L: -2.17% ($-3.49) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-17 23:50 (5.8h)
Entry: $2,843.00, Exit: $2,779.54 P&L: +2.23% ($+3.34) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 00:05 (0.1h)
Entry: $2,725.60, Exit: $2,828.10 P&L: -3.76% ($-8.16) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-18 13:50 (19.8h)
Entry: $123.21, Exit: $126.13 P&L: -2.37% ($-3.15) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 13:50 (13.8h)
Entry: $11.87, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.96% ($-2.66) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-18 19:50 (1.8h)
Entry: $122.89, Exit: $118.21 P&L: +3.81% ($+7.58) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 00:00 → 12-19 05:05 (5.1h)
Entry: $119.59, Exit: $122.80 P&L: -2.68% ($-2.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 06:00 (12.0h)
Entry: $2,789.30, Exit: $2,906.90 P&L: -4.22% ($-5.20) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 07:20 (13.3h)
Entry: $11.63, Exit: $12.08 P&L: -3.86% ($-6.43) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 06:00 → 12-19 09:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $122.63, Exit: $125.61 P&L: -2.43% ($-3.01) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC showing bullish recovery (+4.55% in 50h) after testing $84k lows. Price above both EMA20 ($87,991) and EMA50 ($87,089), confirming short-term uptrend. RSI(14) at 56.5 is neutral-bullish. However, recent 8h candles show consolidation around $88.3k with decreasing momentum. Need to see clear breakout above $89.8k resistance or pullback to $87k support for high-conviction entry. Current market structure favors waiting given 21% margin already deployed.
Confidence: 50%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH showing strongest recovery (+8.82% in 50h) with price well above EMA20 ($2,968) and EMA50 ($2,877). RSI(14) at 61.4 indicates healthy bullish momentum without being overbought. Recent 8h candles show consolidation around $3,000-$3,030 range. While trend is bullish, recent trading history shows 5 consecutive stopped-out shorts, indicating I've been fighting the trend. Need to respect the bullish momentum. However, at current levels near $3,030 resistance, risk/reward for new long is unfavorable. Better to wait for either breakout above $3,100 or pullback to $2,950 support.
Confidence: 45%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SOL recovered nicely (+5.7% Dec 19) but now consolidating tightly around $126.50. Price above EMA20 ($125.67) and EMA50 ($123.93) confirms bullish structure. RSI(14) at 55.8 is neutral. Recent 8h candles show very tight range ($125.40-$126.82), indicating indecision. ATR at $1.20 suggests low volatility. Multiple failed shorts in recent history show I've been on wrong side. However, current tight consolidation doesn't offer clear entry - need breakout above $127.50 or pullback to $124 for better risk/reward setup.
Confidence: 40%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Existing LONG position at $11.99 currently +2.09% ($12.24). Price holding above EMA20 ($12.16) and well above EMA50 ($11.91), maintaining bullish structure. RSI(14) at 56.8 shows healthy momentum. Recent 8h candles show tight consolidation around $12.20-$12.27, which is constructive after strong +6.8% rally on Dec 19. TP at $12.80 (+6.7% from entry) remains valid target at Dec 14 resistance. SL at $11.50 protects capital. Position is working as planned - trust the TP/SL orders to execute automatically. No reason to close manually; thesis remains intact with bullish trend structure holding.
Confidence: 65%
💾 Database saved: run_id=170
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