Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-20 18:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-20 12:00:07
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $157.16
Margin Used: $33.02 (21.0%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-20 18:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-20 12:00:07 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-18 16:00 → 2025-12-20 18:00
BTC:
Current Price: $88,364.00
50h Change: +0.05%
50h Range: $84,071.00 - $90,500.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 13: $90,101.00→$90,353.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 14: $90,306.00→$88,334.00 (-2.2%)
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$86,345.00 (-2.3%)
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$87,542.00 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$88,372.00 (+3.9%)
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,364.00 (-0.0%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-20 10:00: O=$88,394.00 H=$88,430.00 L=$88,303.00 C=$88,337.00 (-0.1%)
12-20 11:00: O=$88,309.00 H=$88,527.00 L=$88,191.00 C=$88,462.00 (+0.2%)
12-20 12:00: O=$88,462.00 H=$88,617.00 L=$88,381.00 C=$88,462.00 (+0.0%)
12-20 13:00: O=$88,465.00 H=$88,543.00 L=$88,100.00 C=$88,510.00 (+0.1%)
12-20 14:00: O=$88,444.00 H=$88,561.00 L=$88,240.00 C=$88,472.00 (+0.0%)
12-20 15:00: O=$88,487.00 H=$88,624.00 L=$88,256.00 C=$88,405.00 (-0.1%)
12-20 16:00: O=$88,387.00 H=$88,436.00 L=$88,284.00 C=$88,352.00 (-0.0%)
12-20 17:00: O=$88,346.00 H=$88,548.00 L=$88,317.00 C=$88,364.00 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 47.6
RSI(14): 41.2
EMA(20): $88,258.93
EMA(50): $87,465.12
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $656.07
ETH:
Current Price: $2,979.60
50h Change: +4.43%
50h Range: $2,693.20 - $3,105.40
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 13: $3,053.80→$3,097.30 (+1.4%)
Dec 14: $3,097.20→$3,048.20 (-1.6%)
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,952.40 (-3.3%)
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,952.70 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,982.80 (+6.0%)
Dec 20: $3,010.20→$2,979.60 (-1.0%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-20 10:00: O=$2,983.60 H=$2,985.90 L=$2,974.90 C=$2,978.30 (-0.2%)
12-20 11:00: O=$2,978.80 H=$2,989.00 L=$2,976.10 C=$2,986.80 (+0.3%)
12-20 12:00: O=$2,987.60 H=$2,992.90 L=$2,984.90 C=$2,989.50 (+0.1%)
12-20 13:00: O=$2,989.90 H=$2,992.30 L=$2,969.70 C=$2,979.80 (-0.3%)
12-20 14:00: O=$2,979.50 H=$2,983.80 L=$2,970.90 C=$2,980.00 (+0.0%)
12-20 15:00: O=$2,979.50 H=$2,979.50 L=$2,971.00 C=$2,975.90 (-0.1%)
12-20 16:00: O=$2,977.70 H=$2,980.70 L=$2,973.70 C=$2,977.80 (+0.0%)
12-20 17:00: O=$2,979.60 H=$2,980.90 L=$2,975.80 C=$2,979.60 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 44.1
RSI(14): 51.2
EMA(20): $2,979.25
EMA(50): $2,924.70
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $39.36
SOL:
Current Price: $126.16
50h Change: -1.05%
50h Range: $117.10 - $133.85
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 13: $132.26→$133.19 (+0.7%)
Dec 14: $133.01→$129.58 (-2.6%)
Dec 15: $129.56→$127.79 (-1.4%)
Dec 16: $127.68→$129.42 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Dec 19: $119.63→$126.41 (+5.7%)
Dec 20: $126.34→$126.16 (-0.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-20 10:00: O=$126.43 H=$126.53 L=$126.14 C=$126.19 (-0.2%)
12-20 11:00: O=$126.11 H=$126.66 L=$126.01 C=$126.60 (+0.4%)
12-20 12:00: O=$126.60 H=$126.60 L=$126.23 C=$126.43 (-0.1%)
12-20 13:00: O=$126.40 H=$126.51 L=$125.61 C=$126.32 (-0.1%)
12-20 14:00: O=$126.22 H=$126.56 L=$125.74 C=$126.50 (+0.2%)
12-20 15:00: O=$126.50 H=$126.92 L=$126.18 C=$126.76 (+0.2%)
12-20 16:00: O=$126.71 H=$126.74 L=$126.25 C=$126.49 (-0.2%)
12-20 17:00: O=$126.49 H=$126.53 L=$126.15 C=$126.16 (-0.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 45.0
RSI(14): 43.7
EMA(20): $126.38
EMA(50): $124.59
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $1.54
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.28
50h Change: +1.08%
50h Range: $11.27 - $12.39
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 13: $13.10→$13.37 (+2.1%)
Dec 14: $13.37→$12.86 (-3.8%)
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.37 (-4.5%)
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.34 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Dec 19: $11.45→$12.24 (+6.8%)
Dec 20: $12.25→$12.28 (+0.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-20 09:00: O=$12.34 H=$12.35 L=$12.34 C=$12.35 (+0.1%)
12-20 10:00: O=$12.33 H=$12.33 L=$12.29 C=$12.29 (-0.3%)
12-20 11:00: O=$12.29 H=$12.29 L=$12.29 C=$12.29 (+0.0%)
12-20 12:00: O=$12.29 H=$12.29 L=$12.29 C=$12.29 (+0.0%)
12-20 13:00: O=$12.23 H=$12.23 L=$12.23 C=$12.23 (+0.0%)
12-20 14:00: O=$12.17 H=$12.17 L=$12.17 C=$12.17 (+0.0%)
12-20 15:00: O=$12.26 H=$12.26 L=$12.26 C=$12.26 (+0.0%)
12-20 16:00: O=$12.28 H=$12.28 L=$12.28 C=$12.28 (+0.0%)
⚠️ WARNING: Data is 2.0h old - asset may be inactive
Indicators:
RSI(7): 54.0
RSI(14): 43.0
EMA(20): $12.23
ATR(14): $0.07
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
AVAX (LONG): 7.77 @ $11.99 (Current: $12.28, P&L: +2.39%)
TP: $12.80 (+6.7%)
SL: $11.50 (-4.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $12.80 (Dec 14 resistance, +6.8% gain). SL at $11.50 (below recent support cluster, -4.1% loss). Exit early if: 1) Price fails to hold above $11.85 on next pullback (EMA support break), 2) BTC/ETH show sharp reversal dragging alts down, 3) Volume dries up indicating weak follow-through. R/R: 1.65:1. Position size conservative at 20% margin with 3x leverage (60% notional) given recent string of losses.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
ETH SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-17 15:20 (45.3h)
Entry: $2,926.40, Exit: $2,990.00 P&L: -2.17% ($-3.49) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-17 23:50 (5.8h)
Entry: $2,843.00, Exit: $2,779.54 P&L: +2.23% ($+3.34) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 00:05 (0.1h)
Entry: $2,725.60, Exit: $2,828.10 P&L: -3.76% ($-8.16) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-18 13:50 (19.8h)
Entry: $123.21, Exit: $126.13 P&L: -2.37% ($-3.15) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 13:50 (13.8h)
Entry: $11.87, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.96% ($-2.66) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-18 19:50 (1.8h)
Entry: $122.89, Exit: $118.21 P&L: +3.81% ($+7.58) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 00:00 → 12-19 05:05 (5.1h)
Entry: $119.59, Exit: $122.80 P&L: -2.68% ($-2.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 06:00 (12.0h)
Entry: $2,789.30, Exit: $2,906.90 P&L: -4.22% ($-5.20) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 07:20 (13.3h)
Entry: $11.63, Exit: $12.08 P&L: -3.86% ($-6.43) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 06:00 → 12-19 09:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $122.63, Exit: $125.61 P&L: -2.43% ($-3.01) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC showing indecision after Dec 19 bounce (+3.9%). Price consolidating in tight range $88,300-$88,550 over last 8h with minimal directional conviction. RSI(14) at 41.2 suggests neutral-bearish but RSI(7) at 47.6 shows recent stabilization. Price slightly above EMA(20) $88,259 but overall trend remains fragile after -7.8% decline from Dec 13-18. ATR at $656 indicates moderate volatility. No clear entry signal - need breakout above $89,000 for long or breakdown below $87,500 for short. Current margin usage at 21% leaves room but no compelling setup warrants new position.
Confidence: 60%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH recovered strongly (+6% Dec 19, +4.4% over 50h) from Dec 17 capitulation low of $2,725. Now consolidating tightly around $2,980, essentially flat over last 8h. Price right at EMA(20) $2,979 with bullish structure (EMA20 > EMA50). However, RSI(14) at 51.2 is neutral and RSI(7) at 44.1 shows recent cooling. After 9 failed positions (7 shorts stopped out during this bounce), the message is clear: don't fight this recovery. But also no clear continuation signal yet - need break above $3,000 with volume or pullback to $2,950 support for entry. Risk of whipsaw too high in this tight range.
Confidence: 55%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SOL bounced +5.7% Dec 19 from $119.74 low but now showing weakness, down -0.3% in last hour to $126.16, testing below EMA(20) $126.38. RSI(14) at 43.7 and RSI(7) at 45.0 both sub-50 indicating bearish momentum. However, price still above EMA(50) $124.59 maintaining bullish structure. Recent 8h candles show tight consolidation $125.60-$126.90 with diminishing range - classic coiling pattern. ATR $1.54 suggests normal volatility. Need clear directional break: above $127.50 for long continuation or below $125.50 for short. Multiple failed shorts during Dec 19 bounce warn against premature bearish bets. Wait for confirmation.
Confidence: 50%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: EXISTING LONG POSITION running well (+2.39% unrealized). Entry $11.99, current $12.28, TP $12.80 (+6.7%), SL $11.50 (-4.1%). Position has room to run - TP only 4.2% away while maintaining 1.65:1 R/R. Price above EMA(20) $12.23 confirming bullish structure. RSI(14) at 43.0 shows not overbought, RSI(7) at 54.0 indicates recent strength. WARNING: Data 2h stale but last candles showed stability around $12.28. Dec 19 bounce +6.8% from $11.45 low shows strong recovery momentum. Trust the TP/SL orders - they execute 24/7. No reason to manually close a position that's working and hasn't reached thesis invalidation. Let it run to $12.80 target or $11.50 stop.
Confidence: 70%
💾 Database saved: run_id=172
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