Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-21 12:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-21 06:00:08
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $157.03
Margin Used: $32.89 (20.9%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-21 12:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-21 06:00:08 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-19 10:00 → 2025-12-21 12:00
BTC:
Current Price: $88,785.00
50h Change: +0.73%
50h Range: $86,958.00 - $90,818.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 14: $90,306.00→$88,334.00 (-2.2%)
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$86,345.00 (-2.3%)
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$87,542.00 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$88,372.00 (+3.9%)
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,661.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 21: $88,664.00→$88,785.00 (+0.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-21 04:00: O=$88,297.00 H=$88,601.00 L=$88,297.00 C=$88,320.00 (+0.0%)
12-21 05:00: O=$88,348.00 H=$88,618.00 L=$88,297.00 C=$88,432.00 (+0.1%)
12-21 06:00: O=$88,422.00 H=$88,527.00 L=$88,341.00 C=$88,432.00 (+0.0%)
12-21 07:00: O=$88,387.00 H=$88,578.00 L=$88,365.00 C=$88,449.00 (+0.1%)
12-21 08:00: O=$88,373.00 H=$88,870.00 L=$88,285.00 C=$88,798.00 (+0.5%)
12-21 09:00: O=$88,831.00 H=$89,313.00 L=$88,737.00 C=$89,150.00 (+0.4%)
12-21 10:00: O=$89,177.00 H=$90,818.00 L=$88,782.00 C=$88,894.00 (-0.3%)
12-21 11:00: O=$88,894.00 H=$88,894.00 L=$88,776.00 C=$88,785.00 (-0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 57.7
RSI(14): 56.5
EMA(20): $88,564.76
EMA(50): $88,337.16
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $569.20
ETH:
Current Price: $2,996.90
50h Change: +4.97%
50h Range: $2,847.90 - $3,105.40
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 14: $3,097.20→$3,048.20 (-1.6%)
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,952.40 (-3.3%)
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,952.70 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,982.80 (+6.0%)
Dec 20: $3,010.20→$2,978.50 (-1.1%)
Dec 21: $2,978.80→$2,996.90 (+0.6%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-21 04:00: O=$2,973.60 H=$2,980.10 L=$2,972.40 C=$2,976.90 (+0.1%)
12-21 05:00: O=$2,975.10 H=$2,978.70 L=$2,973.20 C=$2,974.00 (-0.0%)
12-21 06:00: O=$2,973.10 H=$2,978.20 L=$2,973.10 C=$2,976.80 (+0.1%)
12-21 07:00: O=$2,976.90 H=$2,982.10 L=$2,975.70 C=$2,981.70 (+0.2%)
12-21 08:00: O=$2,981.80 H=$2,997.30 L=$2,974.90 C=$2,992.50 (+0.4%)
12-21 09:00: O=$2,993.60 H=$3,012.60 L=$2,987.80 C=$3,001.70 (+0.3%)
12-21 10:00: O=$3,004.60 H=$3,008.30 L=$2,993.30 C=$2,996.20 (-0.3%)
12-21 11:00: O=$2,996.70 H=$3,001.20 L=$2,993.70 C=$2,996.90 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 67.2
RSI(14): 55.6
EMA(20): $2,983.56
EMA(50): $2,976.88
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $18.89
SOL:
Current Price: $125.62
50h Change: +0.62%
50h Range: $121.71 - $133.85
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 14: $133.01→$129.58 (-2.6%)
Dec 15: $129.56→$127.79 (-1.4%)
Dec 16: $127.68→$129.42 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Dec 19: $119.63→$126.41 (+5.7%)
Dec 20: $126.34→$125.96 (-0.3%)
Dec 21: $125.91→$125.62 (-0.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-21 04:00: O=$125.33 H=$125.58 L=$125.30 C=$125.38 (+0.0%)
12-21 05:00: O=$125.30 H=$125.69 L=$125.26 C=$125.51 (+0.2%)
12-21 06:00: O=$125.46 H=$125.70 L=$125.33 C=$125.64 (+0.1%)
12-21 07:00: O=$125.65 H=$125.71 L=$125.35 C=$125.50 (-0.1%)
12-21 08:00: O=$125.38 H=$126.00 L=$124.99 C=$125.76 (+0.3%)
12-21 09:00: O=$125.73 H=$126.70 L=$125.67 C=$126.40 (+0.5%)
12-21 10:00: O=$126.50 H=$126.65 L=$125.75 C=$125.96 (-0.4%)
12-21 11:00: O=$125.87 H=$126.03 L=$125.47 C=$125.62 (-0.2%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 44.9
RSI(14): 48.8
EMA(20): $125.91
EMA(50): $126.15
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.85
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.26
50h Change: +2.15%
50h Range: $11.92 - $12.39
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 14: $13.37→$12.86 (-3.8%)
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.37 (-4.5%)
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.34 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Dec 19: $11.45→$12.24 (+6.8%)
Dec 20: $12.25→$12.20 (-0.5%)
Dec 21: $12.14→$12.26 (+1.0%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-21 04:00: O=$12.10 H=$12.10 L=$12.10 C=$12.10 (+0.0%)
12-21 05:00: O=$12.10 H=$12.10 L=$12.10 C=$12.10 (+0.0%)
12-21 06:00: O=$12.10 H=$12.10 L=$12.10 C=$12.10 (+0.0%)
12-21 07:00: O=$12.10 H=$12.10 L=$12.10 C=$12.10 (+0.0%)
12-21 08:00: O=$12.10 H=$12.10 L=$12.10 C=$12.10 (+0.0%)
12-21 09:00: O=$12.33 H=$12.33 L=$12.25 C=$12.29 (-0.3%)
12-21 10:00: O=$12.29 H=$12.29 L=$12.21 C=$12.21 (-0.6%)
12-21 11:00: O=$12.22 H=$12.27 L=$12.22 C=$12.26 (+0.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 65.1
RSI(14): 59.4
EMA(20): $12.18
EMA(50): $12.20
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.05
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
AVAX (LONG): 7.77 @ $11.99 (Current: $12.26, P&L: +2.21%)
TP: $12.80 (+6.7%)
SL: $11.50 (-4.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $12.80 (Dec 14 resistance, +6.8% gain). SL at $11.50 (below recent support cluster, -4.1% loss). Exit early if: 1) Price fails to hold above $11.85 on next pullback (EMA support break), 2) BTC/ETH show sharp reversal dragging alts down, 3) Volume dries up indicating weak follow-through. R/R: 1.65:1. Position size conservative at 20% margin with 3x leverage (60% notional) given recent string of losses.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
ETH SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-17 15:20 (45.3h)
Entry: $2,926.40, Exit: $2,990.00 P&L: -2.17% ($-3.49) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-17 23:50 (5.8h)
Entry: $2,843.00, Exit: $2,779.54 P&L: +2.23% ($+3.34) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 00:05 (0.1h)
Entry: $2,725.60, Exit: $2,828.10 P&L: -3.76% ($-8.16) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-18 13:50 (19.8h)
Entry: $123.21, Exit: $126.13 P&L: -2.37% ($-3.15) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 13:50 (13.8h)
Entry: $11.87, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.96% ($-2.66) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-18 19:50 (1.8h)
Entry: $122.89, Exit: $118.21 P&L: +3.81% ($+7.58) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 00:00 → 12-19 05:05 (5.1h)
Entry: $119.59, Exit: $122.80 P&L: -2.68% ($-2.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 06:00 (12.0h)
Entry: $2,789.30, Exit: $2,906.90 P&L: -4.22% ($-5.20) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 07:20 (13.3h)
Entry: $11.63, Exit: $12.08 P&L: -3.86% ($-6.43) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 06:00 → 12-19 09:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $122.63, Exit: $125.61 P&L: -2.43% ($-3.01) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC showing weak bullish structure with price above EMAs but momentum fading. Recent spike to $90,818 rejected hard with -0.3% and -0.1% candles. RSI(7) at 57.7 shows neutral momentum. While technically bullish (EMA alignment), the rejection at $90.8k and consolidation suggests indecision. With 20.9% margin already used on AVAX position, prudent to wait for clearer direction - either breakout above $90k or breakdown below $88k support.
Confidence: 50%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH recovered nicely from Dec 17 capitulation ($2,725), now +4.97% over 50h. Price above both EMAs (bullish structure) but RSI(7) at 67.2 approaching overbought territory. Recent 8h candles show consolidation at $2,997 with diminishing momentum. Strong recovery but now at resistance - need to see either breakout above $3,010 or pullback to $2,970 support for clearer entry. Given recent string of failed SHORT positions on ETH (-2.17%, -3.76%, -4.22%), better to wait for high-probability setup.
Confidence: 55%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SOL showing weak structure: price below both EMAs (bearish), RSI(7) at 44.9 (neutral-weak), and recent candles showing rejection from $126.70 with -0.4% and -0.2% closes. However, multiple failed SHORT attempts (5 recent SL hits) suggest this is a choppy, difficult-to-trade environment. Price consolidating in tight $125-126 range. Bearish EMA trend suggests downside bias, but without clear breakdown below $124.50 support, risk of another whipsaw is high. Wait for decisive move.
Confidence: 45%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: AVAX LONG position performing well at +2.21% (entry $11.99, current $12.26). Price action showing steady grind higher with recent spike to $12.33 in 09:00 candle. TP at $12.80 still 4.4% away, SL at $11.50 providing 6.3% cushion. Position thesis remains intact: recovery from Dec 18 low ($11.41), price reclaimed above EMA cluster. Trust the TP/SL orders - no reason to exit manually. Recent consolidation at $12.10-12.30 is healthy before next leg. Exit plan clearly defined with R/R 1.65:1. Let position run to TP.
Confidence: 70%
💾 Database saved: run_id=175
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