Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-21 18:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-21 12:00:08
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $155.83
Margin Used: $31.69 (20.3%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-21 18:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-21 12:00:08 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-19 16:00 → 2025-12-21 18:00
BTC:
Current Price: $88,483.00
50h Change: +0.63%
50h Range: $86,958.00 - $90,818.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 14: $90,306.00→$88,334.00 (-2.2%)
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$86,345.00 (-2.3%)
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$87,542.00 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$88,372.00 (+3.9%)
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,661.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 21: $88,664.00→$88,483.00 (-0.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-21 10:00: O=$89,177.00 H=$90,818.00 L=$88,782.00 C=$88,894.00 (-0.3%)
12-21 11:00: O=$88,894.00 H=$88,894.00 L=$88,776.00 C=$88,785.00 (-0.1%)
12-21 12:00: O=$88,794.00 H=$89,107.00 L=$88,730.00 C=$88,781.00 (-0.0%)
12-21 13:00: O=$88,787.00 H=$88,903.00 L=$87,867.00 C=$87,867.00 (-1.0%)
12-21 14:00: O=$87,867.00 H=$88,299.00 L=$87,867.00 C=$88,253.00 (+0.4%)
12-21 15:00: O=$88,287.00 H=$88,393.00 L=$88,024.00 C=$88,288.00 (+0.0%)
12-21 16:00: O=$88,133.00 H=$88,528.00 L=$88,124.00 C=$88,528.00 (+0.4%)
12-21 17:00: O=$88,500.00 H=$88,603.00 L=$88,423.00 C=$88,483.00 (-0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 50.0
RSI(14): 44.6
EMA(20): $88,475.75
EMA(50): $88,369.90
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $526.75
ETH:
Current Price: $2,982.00
50h Change: +1.08%
50h Range: $2,900.60 - $3,105.40
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 14: $3,097.20→$3,048.20 (-1.6%)
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,952.40 (-3.3%)
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,952.70 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,982.80 (+6.0%)
Dec 20: $3,010.20→$2,978.50 (-1.1%)
Dec 21: $2,978.80→$2,982.00 (+0.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-21 10:00: O=$3,004.60 H=$3,008.30 L=$2,993.30 C=$2,996.20 (-0.3%)
12-21 11:00: O=$2,996.70 H=$3,001.20 L=$2,993.70 C=$2,996.90 (+0.0%)
12-21 12:00: O=$2,997.30 H=$3,004.50 L=$2,983.50 C=$2,989.10 (-0.3%)
12-21 13:00: O=$2,991.70 H=$2,992.00 L=$2,944.30 C=$2,948.20 (-1.5%)
12-21 14:00: O=$2,947.20 H=$2,975.70 L=$2,947.20 C=$2,969.00 (+0.7%)
12-21 15:00: O=$2,964.90 H=$2,979.70 L=$2,962.30 C=$2,975.30 (+0.4%)
12-21 16:00: O=$2,974.30 H=$2,985.30 L=$2,969.60 C=$2,985.30 (+0.4%)
12-21 17:00: O=$2,986.80 H=$2,988.00 L=$2,977.90 C=$2,982.00 (-0.2%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 51.5
RSI(14): 46.7
EMA(20): $2,980.45
EMA(50): $2,983.39
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $19.61
SOL:
Current Price: $125.63
50h Change: +0.39%
50h Range: $121.71 - $133.85
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 14: $133.01→$129.58 (-2.6%)
Dec 15: $129.56→$127.79 (-1.4%)
Dec 16: $127.68→$129.42 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Dec 19: $119.63→$126.41 (+5.7%)
Dec 20: $126.34→$125.96 (-0.3%)
Dec 21: $125.91→$125.63 (-0.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-21 10:00: O=$126.50 H=$126.65 L=$125.75 C=$125.96 (-0.4%)
12-21 11:00: O=$125.87 H=$126.03 L=$125.47 C=$125.62 (-0.2%)
12-21 12:00: O=$125.65 H=$126.20 L=$125.28 C=$125.63 (-0.0%)
12-21 13:00: O=$125.64 H=$125.72 L=$123.66 C=$123.82 (-1.4%)
12-21 14:00: O=$123.77 H=$124.80 L=$123.73 C=$124.53 (+0.6%)
12-21 15:00: O=$124.52 H=$125.37 L=$124.11 C=$125.25 (+0.6%)
12-21 16:00: O=$125.09 H=$125.68 L=$124.94 C=$125.61 (+0.4%)
12-21 17:00: O=$125.63 H=$126.45 L=$125.51 C=$125.63 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 53.5
RSI(14): 45.6
EMA(20): $125.56
EMA(50): $126.09
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.95
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.08
50h Change: -0.85%
50h Range: $11.97 - $12.39
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 14: $13.37→$12.86 (-3.8%)
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.37 (-4.5%)
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.34 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Dec 19: $11.45→$12.24 (+6.8%)
Dec 20: $12.25→$12.20 (-0.5%)
Dec 21: $12.14→$12.08 (-0.5%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-21 10:00: O=$12.29 H=$12.29 L=$12.21 C=$12.21 (-0.6%)
12-21 11:00: O=$12.22 H=$12.27 L=$12.22 C=$12.26 (+0.3%)
12-21 12:00: O=$12.27 H=$12.27 L=$12.21 C=$12.22 (-0.4%)
12-21 13:00: O=$12.22 H=$12.22 L=$11.97 C=$11.97 (-2.1%)
12-21 14:00: O=$12.00 H=$12.05 L=$11.99 C=$12.05 (+0.4%)
12-21 15:00: O=$12.03 H=$12.07 L=$12.01 C=$12.07 (+0.4%)
12-21 16:00: O=$12.11 H=$12.15 L=$12.11 C=$12.12 (+0.0%)
12-21 17:00: O=$12.16 H=$12.16 L=$12.08 C=$12.08 (-0.7%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 43.6
RSI(14): 39.2
EMA(20): $12.14
EMA(50): $12.21
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.06
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
AVAX (LONG): 7.77 @ $11.99 (Current: $12.08, P&L: +0.69%)
TP: $12.80 (+6.7%)
SL: $11.50 (-4.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $12.80 (Dec 14 resistance, +6.8% gain). SL at $11.50 (below recent support cluster, -4.1% loss). Exit early if: 1) Price fails to hold above $11.85 on next pullback (EMA support break), 2) BTC/ETH show sharp reversal dragging alts down, 3) Volume dries up indicating weak follow-through. R/R: 1.65:1. Position size conservative at 20% margin with 3x leverage (60% notional) given recent string of losses.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
ETH SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-17 15:20 (45.3h)
Entry: $2,926.40, Exit: $2,990.00 P&L: -2.17% ($-3.49) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-17 23:50 (5.8h)
Entry: $2,843.00, Exit: $2,779.54 P&L: +2.23% ($+3.34) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 00:05 (0.1h)
Entry: $2,725.60, Exit: $2,828.10 P&L: -3.76% ($-8.16) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-18 13:50 (19.8h)
Entry: $123.21, Exit: $126.13 P&L: -2.37% ($-3.15) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 13:50 (13.8h)
Entry: $11.87, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.96% ($-2.66) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-18 19:50 (1.8h)
Entry: $122.89, Exit: $118.21 P&L: +3.81% ($+7.58) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 00:00 → 12-19 05:05 (5.1h)
Entry: $119.59, Exit: $122.80 P&L: -2.68% ($-2.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 06:00 (12.0h)
Entry: $2,789.30, Exit: $2,906.90 P&L: -4.22% ($-5.20) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 07:20 (13.3h)
Entry: $11.63, Exit: $12.08 P&L: -3.86% ($-6.43) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 06:00 → 12-19 09:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $122.63, Exit: $125.61 P&L: -2.43% ($-3.01) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC showing neutral consolidation around $88.5k with RSI(14) at 44.6 (neutral) and price hovering near both EMAs. Recent price action shows indecision - failed to hold above $90k but found support at $87.8k. No clear directional bias with 50h change only +0.63%. EMA trend technically bullish but price action choppy. With 20.3% margin already deployed on AVAX, waiting for clearer setup rather than entering low-conviction trade in this range-bound environment.
Confidence: 0%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH in tight consolidation around $2,980-$3,000 after recovering from Dec 17 crash to $2,725. RSI(14) at 46.7 (neutral-weak), price slightly below EMA(50) at $2,983 indicating bearish structure. Recent 8h candles show compression with declining volatility. Given string of stopped-out ETH shorts (5 losses in recent history), this choppy environment doesn't offer edge. Market needs to break above $3,010 resistance or below $2,945 support for clearer directional trade. Avoiding low-probability setups after recent losses.
Confidence: 0%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SOL consolidating at $125.63, slightly above EMA(20) at $125.56 but below EMA(50) at $126.09 (bearish structure). RSI(14) at 45.6 shows neutral momentum. Price recovered from $119 low on Dec 18-19 but now stalling at resistance. Recent history shows 4 stopped-out SOL shorts, indicating this asset is particularly whippy and difficult to trade. Current setup lacks conviction - not oversold enough for bounce play, not breaking down for short. With AVAX position already open and recent poor SOL trade history, passing on marginal setup.
Confidence: 0%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: AVAX long position currently +0.69% at $12.08 (entry $11.99). Price holding above entry and EMA(20) at $12.14 providing nearby resistance. Recent candle shows weakness ($12.16→$12.08, -0.7%) but position still valid. RSI(14) at 39.2 suggests oversold conditions could support bounce. TP at $12.80 remains realistic target (Dec 14 resistance), SL at $11.50 appropriate (below recent $11.97 low with buffer). Trust the TP/SL orders - no reason to exit manually as thesis (oversold bounce from support) remains intact. Position size conservative at 20% margin. Let it run to targets.
Confidence: 60%
💾 Database saved: run_id=176
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