Output
============================================================
Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-22 12:00:04 UTC
============================================================
Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-22 06:00:07
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $157.97
Margin Used: $33.83 (21.4%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-22 12:00:11 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-22 06:00:07 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-20 10:00 → 2025-12-22 12:00
BTC:
Current Price: $90,130.00
50h Change: +1.96%
50h Range: $87,867.00 - $90,818.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$86,345.00 (-2.3%)
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$87,542.00 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$88,372.00 (+3.9%)
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,661.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 21: $88,664.00→$88,853.00 (+0.2%)
Dec 22: $88,853.00→$90,130.00 (+1.4%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-22 04:00: O=$88,974.00 H=$89,236.00 L=$88,933.00 C=$89,064.00 (+0.1%)
12-22 05:00: O=$89,123.00 H=$89,183.00 L=$88,991.00 C=$89,058.00 (-0.1%)
12-22 06:00: O=$89,044.00 H=$89,215.00 L=$88,933.00 C=$89,166.00 (+0.1%)
12-22 07:00: O=$89,162.00 H=$89,502.00 L=$89,147.00 C=$89,502.00 (+0.4%)
12-22 08:00: O=$89,253.00 H=$90,071.00 L=$89,253.00 C=$89,499.00 (+0.3%)
12-22 09:00: O=$89,464.00 H=$90,000.00 L=$89,451.00 C=$89,947.00 (+0.5%)
12-22 10:00: O=$89,999.00 H=$90,058.00 L=$89,759.00 C=$89,986.00 (-0.0%)
12-22 11:00: O=$89,922.00 H=$90,247.00 L=$89,824.00 C=$90,130.00 (+0.2%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 86.9
RSI(14): 75.6
EMA(20): $89,188.39
EMA(50): $88,694.92
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $463.35
ETH:
Current Price: $3,050.00
50h Change: +2.23%
50h Range: $2,944.30 - $3,056.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,952.40 (-3.3%)
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,952.70 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,982.80 (+6.0%)
Dec 20: $3,010.20→$2,978.50 (-1.1%)
Dec 21: $2,978.80→$3,001.30 (+0.8%)
Dec 22: $3,002.30→$3,050.00 (+1.6%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-22 04:00: O=$3,020.90 H=$3,039.80 L=$3,020.00 C=$3,035.80 (+0.5%)
12-22 05:00: O=$3,039.20 H=$3,040.10 L=$3,026.00 C=$3,028.40 (-0.4%)
12-22 06:00: O=$3,028.70 H=$3,033.20 L=$3,022.30 C=$3,026.30 (-0.1%)
12-22 07:00: O=$3,026.30 H=$3,033.80 L=$3,026.30 C=$3,030.20 (+0.1%)
12-22 08:00: O=$3,029.90 H=$3,053.90 L=$3,025.80 C=$3,026.40 (-0.1%)
12-22 09:00: O=$3,026.50 H=$3,042.00 L=$3,026.10 C=$3,037.20 (+0.4%)
12-22 10:00: O=$3,040.50 H=$3,044.30 L=$3,033.20 C=$3,040.10 (-0.0%)
12-22 11:00: O=$3,040.20 H=$3,056.00 L=$3,036.50 C=$3,050.00 (+0.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 74.1
RSI(14): 68.2
EMA(20): $3,017.71
EMA(50): $2,992.78
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $18.93
SOL:
Current Price: $126.95
50h Change: +0.41%
50h Range: $117.35 - $128.31
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 15: $129.56→$127.79 (-1.4%)
Dec 16: $127.68→$129.42 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Dec 19: $119.63→$126.41 (+5.7%)
Dec 20: $126.34→$125.96 (-0.3%)
Dec 21: $125.91→$125.90 (-0.0%)
Dec 22: $125.93→$126.95 (+0.8%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-22 05:00: O=$126.52 H=$126.59 L=$125.97 C=$126.26 (-0.2%)
12-22 06:00: O=$126.25 H=$126.43 L=$125.62 C=$125.74 (-0.4%)
12-22 07:00: O=$125.77 H=$126.36 L=$125.77 C=$126.16 (+0.3%)
12-22 08:00: O=$126.24 H=$127.27 L=$125.44 C=$125.44 (-0.6%)
12-22 09:00: O=$125.42 H=$126.17 L=$125.42 C=$126.03 (+0.5%)
12-22 10:00: O=$126.10 H=$126.77 L=$125.78 C=$126.49 (+0.3%)
12-22 11:00: O=$126.62 H=$127.26 L=$126.29 C=$126.94 (+0.3%)
12-22 12:00: O=$126.95 H=$126.95 L=$126.95 C=$126.95 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 65.0
RSI(14): 59.9
EMA(20): $126.06
EMA(50): $125.91
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $1.14
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.35
50h Change: +0.14%
50h Range: $11.97 - $12.38
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.37 (-4.5%)
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.34 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Dec 19: $11.45→$12.24 (+6.8%)
Dec 20: $12.25→$12.20 (-0.5%)
Dec 21: $12.14→$12.09 (-0.4%)
Dec 22: $12.19→$12.35 (+1.3%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-22 04:00: O=$12.19 H=$12.25 L=$12.19 C=$12.24 (+0.4%)
12-22 05:00: O=$12.23 H=$12.23 L=$12.16 C=$12.19 (-0.3%)
12-22 06:00: O=$12.15 H=$12.15 L=$12.15 C=$12.15 (+0.0%)
12-22 07:00: O=$12.12 H=$12.18 L=$12.12 C=$12.17 (+0.4%)
12-22 08:00: O=$12.25 H=$12.32 L=$12.21 C=$12.21 (-0.3%)
12-22 09:00: O=$12.21 H=$12.23 L=$12.21 C=$12.22 (+0.1%)
12-22 10:00: O=$12.25 H=$12.29 L=$12.25 C=$12.29 (+0.3%)
12-22 11:00: O=$12.28 H=$12.35 L=$12.27 C=$12.35 (+0.6%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 69.4
RSI(14): 60.9
EMA(20): $12.19
EMA(50): $12.17
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $0.09
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
AVAX (LONG): 7.77 @ $11.99 (Current: $12.35, P&L: +2.99%)
TP: $12.80 (+6.7%)
SL: $11.50 (-4.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $12.80 (Dec 14 resistance, +6.8% gain). SL at $11.50 (below recent support cluster, -4.1% loss). Exit early if: 1) Price fails to hold above $11.85 on next pullback (EMA support break), 2) BTC/ETH show sharp reversal dragging alts down, 3) Volume dries up indicating weak follow-through. R/R: 1.65:1. Position size conservative at 20% margin with 3x leverage (60% notional) given recent string of losses.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
ETH SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-17 15:20 (45.3h)
Entry: $2,926.40, Exit: $2,990.00 P&L: -2.17% ($-3.49) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-17 23:50 (5.8h)
Entry: $2,843.00, Exit: $2,779.54 P&L: +2.23% ($+3.34) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 00:05 (0.1h)
Entry: $2,725.60, Exit: $2,828.10 P&L: -3.76% ($-8.16) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-18 13:50 (19.8h)
Entry: $123.21, Exit: $126.13 P&L: -2.37% ($-3.15) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 13:50 (13.8h)
Entry: $11.87, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.96% ($-2.66) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-18 19:50 (1.8h)
Entry: $122.89, Exit: $118.21 P&L: +3.81% ($+7.58) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 00:00 → 12-19 05:05 (5.1h)
Entry: $119.59, Exit: $122.80 P&L: -2.68% ($-2.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 06:00 (12.0h)
Entry: $2,789.30, Exit: $2,906.90 P&L: -4.22% ($-5.20) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 07:20 (13.3h)
Entry: $11.63, Exit: $12.08 P&L: -3.86% ($-6.43) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 06:00 → 12-19 09:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $122.63, Exit: $125.61 P&L: -2.43% ($-3.01) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC showing strong bullish momentum (+1.96% in 50h, currently at $90,130). RSI(7) at 86.9 is extremely overbought, RSI(14) at 75.6 also elevated. Price above both EMA(20) $89,188 and EMA(50) $88,694 confirms uptrend. However, at these overbought levels with RSI(7) near 87, risk of pullback is high. Recent 8h candles show steady climb but momentum may be exhausted. With 21.4% margin already deployed and recent string of SL hits, prudent to wait for either: 1) healthy pullback to EMA(20) area with RSI reset, or 2) consolidation above $90k with volume confirmation before entering. No position currently - holding for better risk/reward entry.
Confidence: 60%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH in bullish structure, price $3,050 above EMA(20) $3,018 and EMA(50) $2,993. Strong recovery from Dec 17 low of $2,726 (+11.9% in 5 days). RSI(7) 74.1 and RSI(14) 68.2 both overbought but not extreme. However, similar to BTC - momentum appears stretched after steady climb. Recent 8h candles show gradual grind higher without strong volume surges. Given account has suffered multiple ETH short SL hits recently (5 losses, 1 win), and with AVAX long already deployed using 21.4% margin, avoiding new ETH position until clearer setup emerges. Need either pullback to $3,000-3,010 support zone or breakout above $3,060 with volume.
Confidence: 55%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SOL showing modest recovery, currently $126.95 (+0.41% in 50h). Price above EMA(20) $126.06 and EMA(50) $125.91, technically bullish but barely. RSI(7) 65.0 and RSI(14) 59.9 are neutral-to-slightly-bullish, not overbought. However, SOL significantly underperforming BTC/ETH - while BTC up 1.96% and ETH up 2.23%, SOL only up 0.41%. This relative weakness is concerning. Recent 8h candles show choppy, indecisive price action with small ranges. ATR $1.14 suggests low volatility. Account has taken 4 SOL short losses recently. With limited margin available (78.6% free but need reserves) and SOL showing relative weakness vs majors, better opportunities elsewhere. Wait for either clear breakout above $128 or pullback to $124 support.
Confidence: 50%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: AVAX long position currently +2.99% ($12.35 entry $11.99), approaching halfway to TP of $12.80. Position performing well with price above both EMAs (EMA20: $12.19, EMA50: $12.17). RSI(7) 69.4 and RSI(14) 60.9 show healthy bullish momentum without extreme overbought. Recent 8h candles show steady climb with decent follow-through. CRITICAL: TP/SL orders are working 24/7 - no need to manually close just because position is profitable. Original thesis remains valid: riding recovery from Dec 18 low, targeting $12.80 resistance. Current price $12.35 still has +3.6% room to TP vs -6.9% to SL, maintaining positive R/R. Only reason to close early would be thesis invalidation (breakdown below $11.85, major BTC reversal, or volume collapse) - none of which are present. Trust the TP order at $12.80.
Confidence: 75%
💾 Database saved: run_id=179
============================================================