Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-22 18:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-22 12:00:11
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $158.05
Margin Used: $33.91 (21.5%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-22 18:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-22 12:00:11 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-20 16:00 → 2025-12-22 18:00
BTC:
Current Price: $89,447.00
50h Change: +1.20%
50h Range: $87,867.00 - $90,818.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 15: $88,386.00→$86,345.00 (-2.3%)
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$87,542.00 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$88,372.00 (+3.9%)
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,661.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 21: $88,664.00→$88,853.00 (+0.2%)
Dec 22: $88,853.00→$89,447.00 (+0.7%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-22 11:00: O=$89,922.00 H=$90,247.00 L=$89,824.00 C=$90,130.00 (+0.2%)
12-22 12:00: O=$90,154.00 H=$90,741.00 L=$90,105.00 C=$90,437.00 (+0.3%)
12-22 13:00: O=$90,484.00 H=$90,523.00 L=$89,927.00 C=$90,148.00 (-0.4%)
12-22 14:00: O=$90,092.00 H=$90,522.00 L=$89,721.00 C=$90,299.00 (+0.2%)
12-22 15:00: O=$90,418.00 H=$90,533.00 L=$89,411.00 C=$89,997.00 (-0.5%)
12-22 16:00: O=$89,928.00 H=$90,238.00 L=$89,751.00 C=$89,751.00 (-0.2%)
12-22 17:00: O=$89,685.00 H=$89,726.00 L=$89,260.00 C=$89,485.00 (-0.2%)
12-22 18:00: O=$89,447.00 H=$89,447.00 L=$89,447.00 C=$89,447.00 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 40.0
RSI(14): 51.2
EMA(20): $89,528.19
EMA(50): $88,906.37
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $509.04
ETH:
Current Price: $3,032.20
50h Change: +1.83%
50h Range: $2,944.30 - $3,076.50
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 15: $3,054.30→$2,952.40 (-3.3%)
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,952.70 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,982.80 (+6.0%)
Dec 20: $3,010.20→$2,978.50 (-1.1%)
Dec 21: $2,978.80→$3,001.30 (+0.8%)
Dec 22: $3,002.30→$3,032.20 (+1.0%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-22 10:00: O=$3,040.50 H=$3,044.30 L=$3,033.20 C=$3,040.10 (-0.0%)
12-22 11:00: O=$3,040.20 H=$3,056.00 L=$3,036.50 C=$3,050.00 (+0.3%)
12-22 12:00: O=$3,049.40 H=$3,076.50 L=$3,045.60 C=$3,059.80 (+0.3%)
12-22 13:00: O=$3,056.50 H=$3,064.10 L=$3,048.40 C=$3,054.60 (-0.1%)
12-22 14:00: O=$3,055.80 H=$3,071.00 L=$3,029.60 C=$3,059.40 (+0.1%)
12-22 15:00: O=$3,054.40 H=$3,070.40 L=$3,022.80 C=$3,049.00 (-0.2%)
12-22 16:00: O=$3,051.90 H=$3,059.30 L=$3,039.70 C=$3,039.70 (-0.4%)
12-22 17:00: O=$3,043.50 H=$3,043.50 L=$3,024.40 C=$3,032.20 (-0.4%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 43.6
RSI(14): 53.8
EMA(20): $3,030.97
EMA(50): $3,000.87
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $22.39
SOL:
Current Price: $126.84
50h Change: +0.10%
50h Range: $117.35 - $128.45
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 15: $129.56→$127.79 (-1.4%)
Dec 16: $127.68→$129.42 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Dec 19: $119.63→$126.41 (+5.7%)
Dec 20: $126.34→$125.96 (-0.3%)
Dec 21: $125.91→$125.90 (-0.0%)
Dec 22: $125.93→$126.84 (+0.7%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-22 11:00: O=$126.62 H=$127.26 L=$126.29 C=$126.94 (+0.3%)
12-22 12:00: O=$126.95 H=$127.34 L=$126.56 C=$126.82 (-0.1%)
12-22 13:00: O=$126.84 H=$126.90 L=$126.21 C=$126.81 (-0.0%)
12-22 14:00: O=$126.86 H=$128.06 L=$126.50 C=$127.60 (+0.6%)
12-22 15:00: O=$127.74 H=$128.45 L=$126.51 C=$127.78 (+0.0%)
12-22 16:00: O=$128.12 H=$128.23 L=$126.96 C=$127.11 (-0.8%)
12-22 17:00: O=$127.15 H=$127.15 L=$126.40 C=$126.67 (-0.4%)
12-22 18:00: O=$126.84 H=$126.84 L=$126.84 C=$126.84 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 52.3
RSI(14): 53.2
EMA(20): $126.52
EMA(50): $125.98
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $1.13
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.37
50h Change: +0.76%
50h Range: $11.97 - $12.42
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 15: $12.95→$12.37 (-4.5%)
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.34 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Dec 19: $11.45→$12.24 (+6.8%)
Dec 20: $12.25→$12.20 (-0.5%)
Dec 21: $12.14→$12.09 (-0.4%)
Dec 22: $12.19→$12.37 (+1.5%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-22 10:00: O=$12.25 H=$12.29 L=$12.25 C=$12.29 (+0.3%)
12-22 11:00: O=$12.28 H=$12.35 L=$12.27 C=$12.35 (+0.6%)
12-22 12:00: O=$12.38 H=$12.42 L=$12.34 C=$12.40 (+0.2%)
12-22 13:00: O=$12.35 H=$12.37 L=$12.33 C=$12.37 (+0.2%)
12-22 14:00: O=$12.39 H=$12.40 L=$12.33 C=$12.38 (-0.1%)
12-22 15:00: O=$12.37 H=$12.42 L=$12.31 C=$12.31 (-0.4%)
12-22 16:00: O=$12.36 H=$12.38 L=$12.35 C=$12.35 (-0.0%)
12-22 17:00: O=$12.36 H=$12.37 L=$12.33 C=$12.37 (+0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 62.8
RSI(14): 59.4
EMA(20): $12.27
EMA(50): $12.19
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $0.08
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
AVAX (LONG): 7.77 @ $11.99 (Current: $12.37, P&L: +3.17%)
TP: $12.80 (+6.7%)
SL: $11.50 (-4.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $12.80 (Dec 14 resistance, +6.8% gain). SL at $11.50 (below recent support cluster, -4.1% loss). Exit early if: 1) Price fails to hold above $11.85 on next pullback (EMA support break), 2) BTC/ETH show sharp reversal dragging alts down, 3) Volume dries up indicating weak follow-through. R/R: 1.65:1. Position size conservative at 20% margin with 3x leverage (60% notional) given recent string of losses.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
ETH SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-17 15:20 (45.3h)
Entry: $2,926.40, Exit: $2,990.00 P&L: -2.17% ($-3.49) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-17 23:50 (5.8h)
Entry: $2,843.00, Exit: $2,779.54 P&L: +2.23% ($+3.34) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 00:05 (0.1h)
Entry: $2,725.60, Exit: $2,828.10 P&L: -3.76% ($-8.16) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-18 13:50 (19.8h)
Entry: $123.21, Exit: $126.13 P&L: -2.37% ($-3.15) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 13:50 (13.8h)
Entry: $11.87, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.96% ($-2.66) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-18 19:50 (1.8h)
Entry: $122.89, Exit: $118.21 P&L: +3.81% ($+7.58) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 00:00 → 12-19 05:05 (5.1h)
Entry: $119.59, Exit: $122.80 P&L: -2.68% ($-2.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 06:00 (12.0h)
Entry: $2,789.30, Exit: $2,906.90 P&L: -4.22% ($-5.20) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 07:20 (13.3h)
Entry: $11.63, Exit: $12.08 P&L: -3.86% ($-6.43) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 06:00 → 12-19 09:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $122.63, Exit: $125.61 P&L: -2.43% ($-3.01) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC showing consolidation after Dec 19 recovery (+3.9%). Currently at $89,447 just below EMA(20) at $89,528, indicating short-term weakness. Recent 8h candles show rejection from $90,741 high with declining momentum into close. RSI(7) at 40.0 suggests oversold on short timeframe, but RSI(14) at 51.2 is neutral. EMA trend remains bullish (price above EMA50), but lacking conviction for entry. Price action is indecisive - not strong enough for long, not weak enough for short. With 21.5% margin already deployed on AVAX, prudent to wait for clearer directional move above $90,800 resistance or below $89,000 support before committing additional capital.
Confidence: 60%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH showing similar consolidation pattern to BTC. Price at $3,032 hovering just above EMA(20) at $3,031, indicating fragile support. Recent candles show rejection from $3,076 high with two consecutive red hourly closes (-0.4%, -0.4%). RSI(7) at 43.6 suggests mild oversold, RSI(14) at 53.8 neutral. While EMA trend is bullish, the price action lacks conviction. ETH has been particularly volatile (see recent trade history with multiple SL hits), and current setup doesn't meet 2-indicator entry requirement. Need to see either: 1) Clear break above $3,080 with volume, or 2) Deeper pullback to $3,000-3,010 support zone with reversal confirmation. Current position is no-man's land.
Confidence: 55%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SOL at $126.84, essentially flat over 50h period (+0.10%). Price trading right at EMA(20) $126.52, showing equilibrium. Recent 8h action shows failed breakout attempt to $128.45 followed by rejection back to current levels. RSI(7) at 52.3 and RSI(14) at 53.2 both neutral - no edge. While EMA trend is technically bullish, the tight consolidation and lack of directional momentum make this a coin-flip setup. Given recent history of multiple failed SHORT trades on SOL (4 SL hits in recent sessions), the volatility is high and setups are unreliable. Better to wait for clear breakout above $128.50 or breakdown below $126.00 with confirmation before entering. Current risk/reward unclear.
Confidence: 50%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: AVAX long position performing well at +3.17% P&L (entry $11.99, current $12.37). Position is progressing toward TP at $12.80 (+6.7% target). Recent price action shows steady climb from $12.19 to current $12.37 with RSI(7) at 62.8 indicating strength without extreme overbought. Price well above both EMAs (20: $12.27, 50: $12.19) confirming uptrend. Recent 8h candles show consolidation in $12.33-$12.42 range, which is healthy after the move up. SL at $11.50 provides 1.5x ATR cushion. Trust the TP/SL orders as instructed - they execute 24/7 automatically. No reason to manually close a position that's working and hasn't invalidated thesis. Let the trade run to TP or SL. Only concern would be if BTC/ETH showed sharp reversal, but both are merely consolidating, not breaking down.
Confidence: 75%
💾 Database saved: run_id=180
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