Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-23 06:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-23 00:00:09
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $157.36
Margin Used: $33.22 (21.1%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-23 06:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-23 00:00:09 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-21 04:00 → 2025-12-23 06:00
BTC:
Current Price: $87,997.00
50h Change: -0.34%
50h Range: $87,820.00 - $90,818.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$87,542.00 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$88,372.00 (+3.9%)
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,661.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 21: $88,664.00→$88,853.00 (+0.2%)
Dec 22: $88,853.00→$88,759.00 (-0.1%)
Dec 23: $88,690.00→$87,997.00 (-0.8%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-22 22:00: O=$88,488.00 H=$89,028.00 L=$88,388.00 C=$88,912.00 (+0.5%)
12-22 23:00: O=$88,911.00 H=$88,922.00 L=$88,670.00 C=$88,759.00 (-0.2%)
12-23 00:00: O=$88,690.00 H=$89,158.00 L=$88,629.00 C=$89,000.00 (+0.3%)
12-23 01:00: O=$88,915.00 H=$89,022.00 L=$88,631.00 C=$88,684.00 (-0.3%)
12-23 02:00: O=$88,684.00 H=$89,176.00 L=$88,335.00 C=$88,391.00 (-0.3%)
12-23 03:00: O=$88,368.00 H=$88,566.00 L=$87,966.00 C=$88,451.00 (+0.1%)
12-23 04:00: O=$88,401.00 H=$88,575.00 L=$88,154.00 C=$88,184.00 (-0.2%)
12-23 05:00: O=$88,174.00 H=$88,228.00 L=$87,820.00 C=$87,997.00 (-0.2%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 27.7
RSI(14): 36.7
EMA(20): $88,822.68
EMA(50): $88,920.72
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $538.72
ETH:
Current Price: $2,975.70
50h Change: +0.07%
50h Range: $2,944.30 - $3,076.50
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,952.70 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,982.80 (+6.0%)
Dec 20: $3,010.20→$2,978.50 (-1.1%)
Dec 21: $2,978.80→$3,001.30 (+0.8%)
Dec 22: $3,002.30→$3,005.70 (+0.1%)
Dec 23: $3,007.10→$2,975.70 (-1.0%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-22 22:00: O=$2,987.80 H=$3,011.40 L=$2,983.80 C=$3,011.40 (+0.8%)
12-22 23:00: O=$3,009.40 H=$3,011.10 L=$3,001.70 C=$3,005.70 (-0.1%)
12-23 00:00: O=$3,007.10 H=$3,031.60 L=$3,006.10 C=$3,027.80 (+0.7%)
12-23 01:00: O=$3,027.20 H=$3,030.50 L=$3,016.80 C=$3,018.20 (-0.3%)
12-23 02:00: O=$3,013.60 H=$3,023.60 L=$2,989.60 C=$2,989.60 (-0.8%)
12-23 03:00: O=$2,990.00 H=$2,998.90 L=$2,973.80 C=$2,993.20 (+0.1%)
12-23 04:00: O=$2,991.00 H=$2,996.80 L=$2,982.60 C=$2,985.30 (-0.2%)
12-23 05:00: O=$2,983.70 H=$2,984.70 L=$2,966.30 C=$2,975.70 (-0.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 32.5
RSI(14): 39.1
EMA(20): $3,006.29
EMA(50): $3,005.72
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $22.55
SOL:
Current Price: $124.81
50h Change: -0.41%
50h Range: $117.35 - $128.45
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 16: $127.68→$129.42 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Dec 19: $119.63→$126.41 (+5.7%)
Dec 20: $126.34→$125.96 (-0.3%)
Dec 21: $125.91→$125.90 (-0.0%)
Dec 22: $125.93→$125.58 (-0.3%)
Dec 23: $125.65→$124.81 (-0.7%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-22 22:00: O=$124.95 H=$125.74 L=$124.91 C=$125.51 (+0.4%)
12-22 23:00: O=$125.58 H=$125.68 L=$125.23 C=$125.58 (+0.0%)
12-23 00:00: O=$125.65 H=$126.67 L=$125.65 C=$126.46 (+0.6%)
12-23 01:00: O=$126.37 H=$126.64 L=$125.73 C=$126.04 (-0.3%)
12-23 02:00: O=$126.01 H=$126.41 L=$125.32 C=$125.51 (-0.4%)
12-23 03:00: O=$125.47 H=$125.95 L=$124.91 C=$125.53 (+0.0%)
12-23 04:00: O=$125.42 H=$125.87 L=$125.22 C=$125.26 (-0.1%)
12-23 05:00: O=$125.31 H=$125.34 L=$124.37 C=$124.81 (-0.4%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 35.2
RSI(14): 42.4
EMA(20): $125.72
EMA(50): $125.80
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1.07
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.27
50h Change: +1.36%
50h Range: $11.97 - $12.54
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.34 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Dec 19: $11.45→$12.24 (+6.8%)
Dec 20: $12.25→$12.20 (-0.5%)
Dec 21: $12.14→$12.09 (-0.4%)
Dec 22: $12.19→$12.37 (+1.5%)
Dec 23: $12.42→$12.27 (-1.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-22 22:00: O=$12.10 H=$12.10 L=$12.10 C=$12.10 (+0.0%)
12-22 23:00: O=$12.41 H=$12.41 L=$12.37 C=$12.37 (-0.3%)
12-23 00:00: O=$12.42 H=$12.54 L=$12.42 C=$12.46 (+0.4%)
12-23 01:00: O=$12.47 H=$12.48 L=$12.43 C=$12.46 (-0.1%)
12-23 02:00: O=$12.46 H=$12.46 L=$12.46 C=$12.46 (+0.0%)
12-23 03:00: O=$12.38 H=$12.38 L=$12.35 C=$12.35 (-0.2%)
12-23 04:00: O=$12.39 H=$12.39 L=$12.39 C=$12.39 (+0.0%)
12-23 05:00: O=$12.33 H=$12.33 L=$12.27 C=$12.27 (-0.5%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 43.2
RSI(14): 49.0
EMA(20): $12.31
EMA(50): $12.21
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $0.09
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
AVAX (LONG): 7.77 @ $11.99 (Current: $12.27, P&L: +2.29%)
TP: $12.80 (+6.7%)
SL: $11.50 (-4.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $12.80 (Dec 14 resistance, +6.8% gain). SL at $11.50 (below recent support cluster, -4.1% loss). Exit early if: 1) Price fails to hold above $11.85 on next pullback (EMA support break), 2) BTC/ETH show sharp reversal dragging alts down, 3) Volume dries up indicating weak follow-through. R/R: 1.65:1. Position size conservative at 20% margin with 3x leverage (60% notional) given recent string of losses.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
ETH SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-17 15:20 (45.3h)
Entry: $2,926.40, Exit: $2,990.00 P&L: -2.17% ($-3.49) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-17 23:50 (5.8h)
Entry: $2,843.00, Exit: $2,779.54 P&L: +2.23% ($+3.34) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 00:05 (0.1h)
Entry: $2,725.60, Exit: $2,828.10 P&L: -3.76% ($-8.16) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-18 13:50 (19.8h)
Entry: $123.21, Exit: $126.13 P&L: -2.37% ($-3.15) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 13:50 (13.8h)
Entry: $11.87, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.96% ($-2.66) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-18 19:50 (1.8h)
Entry: $122.89, Exit: $118.21 P&L: +3.81% ($+7.58) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 00:00 → 12-19 05:05 (5.1h)
Entry: $119.59, Exit: $122.80 P&L: -2.68% ($-2.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 06:00 (12.0h)
Entry: $2,789.30, Exit: $2,906.90 P&L: -4.22% ($-5.20) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 07:20 (13.3h)
Entry: $11.63, Exit: $12.08 P&L: -3.86% ($-6.43) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 06:00 → 12-19 09:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $122.63, Exit: $125.61 P&L: -2.43% ($-3.01) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
BTC:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: BTC showing clear bearish momentum: price down -0.8% today, trading below both EMA20 ($88,822) and EMA50 ($88,920) with bearish EMA trend. RSI(7) at 27.7 is oversold but in a downtrend this signals continuation, not reversal. Recent 8h candles show consistent selling pressure with lower lows (latest: $87,820). Price rejected from $89,158 high and now trending down. Market structure is bearish - this is a SHORT continuation opportunity, not a long entry. ATR at $538 suggests setting wider stops.
Confidence: 65%
Allocation: 25.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $86,500 (below Dec 17 low of $85,874, ~1.7% move). SL at $89,300 (above recent rejection high of $89,158 + buffer, ~1.5% risk). Exit early if: 1) Price reclaims and holds above EMA20 with volume, 2) RSI divergence forms showing momentum shift, 3) Strong bounce above $89,000 with conviction. R:R = 1.13:1 but high probability in bear structure.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $157.36
Allocation: 25.0% ($39.34 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $87,997.00
Size: 0.0013 coins
Notional value: $117.92
📝 Executing SHORT 0.00134 BTC @ 3x with TP: $86,500, SL: $89,300
✅ Market order filled @ $87,877.00
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45472603546)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45472604111)
SOL:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: SOL showing bearish structure: price at $124.81 below both EMA20 ($125.72) and EMA50 ($125.80) with bearish EMA trend. Recent price action shows steady decline from $126.67 high to current levels. RSI(7) at 35.2 in downtrend suggests continuation. Last 4 hourly candles all negative with latest showing sharp drop to $124.37. Price failing to reclaim $125.50 support zone. Following BTC's lead lower. In bear markets, SHORT the weakness.
Confidence: 62%
Allocation: 20.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $122.50 (near Dec 18 low of $119.74, ~1.9% move). SL at $126.80 (above recent high of $126.67 + ATR buffer, ~1.6% risk). Exit early if: 1) Price breaks back above EMA20 with volume confirmation, 2) BTC shows strong reversal dragging alts up, 3) RSI forms bullish divergence. R:R = 1.18:1. Conservative sizing given recent SOL losses.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $157.36
Allocation: 20.0% ($31.47 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $124.81
Size: 0.7600 coins
Notional value: $94.86
📝 Executing SHORT 0.76 SOL @ 3x with TP: $122, SL: $127
✅ Market order filled @ $124.67
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45472606852)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45472607843)
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH in neutral/choppy zone. Price at $2,975 hovering near EMA20 ($3,006) with EMA trend technically bullish but weakening. RSI(7) at 32.5 shows oversold conditions but lacks clear directional bias. Recent candles show indecision - failed to hold above $3,030 but also bouncing from $2,966. Given my recent string of losses on ETH (5 stopped out positions), I need higher conviction setups. Current structure doesn't provide 2+ confirming signals. Wait for clearer break above $3,050 (long) or below $2,950 (short).
Confidence: 40%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: AVAX long position currently +2.29% and approaching profitability. Price at $12.27 pulled back from $12.54 high but still above entry at $11.99. TP at $12.80 and SL at $11.50 remain valid. Current price action shows minor consolidation - not a thesis invalidation. RSI(14) at 49.0 neutral, EMA trend bullish. CRITICAL: Trust the TP/SL orders that execute 24/7. Position is working as planned - no need to manually close just because it's green. Let the trade play out to TP or manage itself via SL. Manual close only warranted if thesis breaks (e.g., sharp break below $11.85 EMA support).
Confidence: 70%
💾 Database saved: run_id=182
2 order(s) executed
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