Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-23 12:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-23 06:00:08
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $157.08
Margin Used: $103.85 (66.1%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-23 12:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-23 06:00:08 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-21 10:00 → 2025-12-23 12:00
BTC:
Current Price: $88,056.00
50h Change: -1.26%
50h Range: $87,298.00 - $90,818.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$87,542.00 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$88,372.00 (+3.9%)
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,661.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 21: $88,664.00→$88,853.00 (+0.2%)
Dec 22: $88,853.00→$88,759.00 (-0.1%)
Dec 23: $88,690.00→$88,056.00 (-0.7%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-23 04:00: O=$88,401.00 H=$88,575.00 L=$88,154.00 C=$88,184.00 (-0.2%)
12-23 05:00: O=$88,174.00 H=$88,228.00 L=$87,820.00 C=$87,997.00 (-0.2%)
12-23 06:00: O=$87,952.00 H=$87,986.00 L=$87,298.00 C=$87,587.00 (-0.4%)
12-23 07:00: O=$87,607.00 H=$87,911.00 L=$87,592.00 C=$87,824.00 (+0.2%)
12-23 08:00: O=$87,776.00 H=$87,841.00 L=$87,623.00 C=$87,675.00 (-0.1%)
12-23 09:00: O=$87,620.00 H=$87,785.00 L=$87,467.00 C=$87,720.00 (+0.1%)
12-23 10:00: O=$87,703.00 H=$87,869.00 L=$87,659.00 C=$87,801.00 (+0.1%)
12-23 11:00: O=$87,753.00 H=$88,070.00 L=$87,727.00 C=$88,056.00 (+0.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 46.3
RSI(14): 41.7
EMA(20): $88,356.11
EMA(50): $88,822.36
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $471.28
ETH:
Current Price: $2,972.60
50h Change: -1.07%
50h Range: $2,944.30 - $3,076.50
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,952.70 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,982.80 (+6.0%)
Dec 20: $3,010.20→$2,978.50 (-1.1%)
Dec 21: $2,978.80→$3,001.30 (+0.8%)
Dec 22: $3,002.30→$3,005.70 (+0.1%)
Dec 23: $3,007.10→$2,972.60 (-1.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-23 04:00: O=$2,991.00 H=$2,996.80 L=$2,982.60 C=$2,985.30 (-0.2%)
12-23 05:00: O=$2,983.70 H=$2,984.70 L=$2,966.30 C=$2,975.70 (-0.3%)
12-23 06:00: O=$2,973.20 H=$2,977.70 L=$2,945.80 C=$2,959.80 (-0.5%)
12-23 07:00: O=$2,958.40 H=$2,968.90 L=$2,955.60 C=$2,965.50 (+0.2%)
12-23 08:00: O=$2,965.30 H=$2,971.00 L=$2,959.40 C=$2,960.40 (-0.2%)
12-23 09:00: O=$2,960.40 H=$2,965.20 L=$2,953.00 C=$2,962.90 (+0.1%)
12-23 10:00: O=$2,963.50 H=$2,970.30 L=$2,962.90 C=$2,966.00 (+0.1%)
12-23 11:00: O=$2,966.30 H=$2,973.60 L=$2,963.60 C=$2,972.60 (+0.2%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 42.9
RSI(14): 42.0
EMA(20): $2,987.40
EMA(50): $3,003.39
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $19.49
SOL:
Current Price: $124.64
50h Change: -1.47%
50h Range: $117.35 - $128.45
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 16: $127.68→$129.42 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Dec 19: $119.63→$126.41 (+5.7%)
Dec 20: $126.34→$125.96 (-0.3%)
Dec 21: $125.91→$125.90 (-0.0%)
Dec 22: $125.93→$125.58 (-0.3%)
Dec 23: $125.65→$124.64 (-0.8%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-23 05:00: O=$125.31 H=$125.34 L=$124.37 C=$124.81 (-0.4%)
12-23 06:00: O=$124.79 H=$125.08 L=$123.99 C=$124.09 (-0.6%)
12-23 07:00: O=$124.17 H=$124.39 L=$123.54 C=$123.94 (-0.2%)
12-23 08:00: O=$124.03 H=$124.49 L=$123.87 C=$123.88 (-0.1%)
12-23 09:00: O=$123.99 H=$124.23 L=$123.81 C=$123.94 (-0.0%)
12-23 10:00: O=$124.02 H=$124.64 L=$123.98 C=$124.58 (+0.5%)
12-23 11:00: O=$124.61 H=$125.05 L=$124.53 C=$124.69 (+0.1%)
12-23 12:00: O=$124.64 H=$124.64 L=$124.64 C=$124.64 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 46.4
RSI(14): 43.3
EMA(20): $125.00
EMA(50): $125.58
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.87
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.20
50h Change: -0.74%
50h Range: $11.97 - $12.54
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.34 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Dec 19: $11.45→$12.24 (+6.8%)
Dec 20: $12.25→$12.20 (-0.5%)
Dec 21: $12.14→$12.09 (-0.4%)
Dec 22: $12.19→$12.37 (+1.5%)
Dec 23: $12.42→$12.20 (-1.8%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-23 03:00: O=$12.38 H=$12.38 L=$12.35 C=$12.35 (-0.2%)
12-23 04:00: O=$12.39 H=$12.39 L=$12.39 C=$12.39 (+0.0%)
12-23 05:00: O=$12.33 H=$12.33 L=$12.27 C=$12.27 (-0.5%)
12-23 06:00: O=$12.26 H=$12.26 L=$12.13 C=$12.13 (-1.1%)
12-23 07:00: O=$12.19 H=$12.19 L=$12.19 C=$12.19 (-0.0%)
12-23 08:00: O=$12.18 H=$12.26 L=$12.17 C=$12.18 (-0.1%)
12-23 09:00: O=$12.21 H=$12.22 L=$12.16 C=$12.18 (-0.3%)
12-23 10:00: O=$12.19 H=$12.22 L=$12.19 C=$12.20 (+0.1%)
⚠️ WARNING: Data is 2.0h old - asset may be inactive
Indicators:
RSI(7): 42.5
RSI(14): 47.6
EMA(20): $12.25
ATR(14): $0.08
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
SOL (SHORT): 0.76 @ $124.67 (Current: $124.64, P&L: +0.02%)
TP: $122.50 (+1.7%)
SL: $126.80 (-1.7%)
Exit Plan: TP at $122.50 (near Dec 18 low of $119.74, ~1.9% move). SL at $126.80 (above recent high of $126.67 + ATR buffer, ~1.6% risk). Exit early if: 1) Price breaks back above EMA20 with volume confirmation, 2) BTC shows strong reversal dragging alts up, 3) RSI forms bullish divergence. R:R = 1.18:1. Conservative sizing given recent SOL losses.
BTC (SHORT): 0.00134 @ $87,877.00 (Current: $88,056.00, P&L: -0.20%)
TP: $86,500.00 (+1.6%)
SL: $89,300.00 (-1.6%)
Exit Plan: TP at $86,500 (below Dec 17 low of $85,874, ~1.7% move). SL at $89,300 (above recent rejection high of $89,158 + buffer, ~1.5% risk). Exit early if: 1) Price reclaims and holds above EMA20 with volume, 2) RSI divergence forms showing momentum shift, 3) Strong bounce above $89,000 with conviction. R:R = 1.13:1 but high probability in bear structure.
AVAX (LONG): 7.77 @ $11.99 (Current: $12.20, P&L: +1.71%)
TP: $12.80 (+6.7%)
SL: $11.50 (-4.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $12.80 (Dec 14 resistance, +6.8% gain). SL at $11.50 (below recent support cluster, -4.1% loss). Exit early if: 1) Price fails to hold above $11.85 on next pullback (EMA support break), 2) BTC/ETH show sharp reversal dragging alts down, 3) Volume dries up indicating weak follow-through. R/R: 1.65:1. Position size conservative at 20% margin with 3x leverage (60% notional) given recent string of losses.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
ETH SHORT: 12-15 18:00 → 12-17 15:20 (45.3h)
Entry: $2,926.40, Exit: $2,990.00 P&L: -2.17% ($-3.49) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-17 23:50 (5.8h)
Entry: $2,843.00, Exit: $2,779.54 P&L: +2.23% ($+3.34) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 00:05 (0.1h)
Entry: $2,725.60, Exit: $2,828.10 P&L: -3.76% ($-8.16) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-18 13:50 (19.8h)
Entry: $123.21, Exit: $126.13 P&L: -2.37% ($-3.15) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 13:50 (13.8h)
Entry: $11.87, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.96% ($-2.66) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-18 19:50 (1.8h)
Entry: $122.89, Exit: $118.21 P&L: +3.81% ($+7.58) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 00:00 → 12-19 05:05 (5.1h)
Entry: $119.59, Exit: $122.80 P&L: -2.68% ($-2.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 06:00 (12.0h)
Entry: $2,789.30, Exit: $2,906.90 P&L: -4.22% ($-5.20) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 07:20 (13.3h)
Entry: $11.63, Exit: $12.08 P&L: -3.86% ($-6.43) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 06:00 → 12-19 09:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $122.63, Exit: $125.61 P&L: -2.43% ($-3.01) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
AVAX:
→ CLOSE
Reasoning: THESIS INVALIDATED: Opened long at $11.99 expecting bounce to $12.80, but AVAX showing concerning weakness. Data is 2h stale (last update 10:00, now 12:00), price dropped from $12.42 → $12.20 (-1.8% today). Currently at $12.20 (+1.71% from entry) but recent 8h candles show consistent selling pressure and failure to hold gains. With 66% margin already used and AVAX data staleness creating execution risk, take the small profit rather than risk another SL hit. Recent history shows 6 consecutive stop-outs - preserve capital.
Confidence: 68%
Exit Plan: None
📝 Closing position for AVAX (market order)
✅ Market close order filled
ETH:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: ETH showing clear bearish structure: price below EMA20 ($2,987) and EMA50 ($3,003), both EMAs declining. Current price $2,972 testing recent lows. RSI(14) at 42.0 indicates weakness without being oversold. Recent 8h candles show consistent lower highs from $3,007 → $2,973. Market correlation with BTC suggests continued downside. High conviction short in bear trend with good R:R setup targeting Dec 18 support breakdown zone.
Confidence: 72%
Allocation: 15.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $2,880 targets breakdown below Dec 18 consolidation zone ($2,812-$2,945 range), ~3.1% move. SL at $3,020 above EMA50 and recent resistance, ~1.6% risk. R:R = 1.94:1. Exit early if: 1) Price reclaims EMA20 with volume surge, 2) RSI breaks above 50 showing momentum shift, 3) BTC reverses strongly above $89,500. Conservative 15% margin allocation (45% notional with 3x) given existing 66% margin usage.
⚠️ REJECTED: total allocation would be 81.1% (current: 66.1%, new: 15.0%)
Maximum total allocation: 80%
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Position is barely negative (-0.20%) and thesis remains intact. Price trading below both EMA20 ($88,356) and EMA50 ($88,822) confirming bearish structure. Recent candles show weak bounce from $87,298 low but no conviction - just grinding. RSI(14) at 41.7 is neutral-bearish. TP at $86,500 is reasonable target below Dec 17 low. Trust the SL at $89,300 - no need to manually close a position that's working as planned just because it's slightly red.
Confidence: 65%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Position barely in profit (+0.02%) but thesis intact. SOL at $124.64 vs entry $124.67, trading below EMA20 ($125.00) and EMA50 ($125.58). Bearish EMA alignment confirmed. Recent candles show weak consolidation around $124 with no breakout conviction. RSI(14) at 43.3 neutral-bearish. TP at $122.50 targets Dec 18 lows logically. Let the position work - churning for tiny gains costs fees and exits before the move completes.
Confidence: 63%
💾 Database saved: run_id=183
2 order(s) executed
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