Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-23 18:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-23 12:00:08
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $159.52
Margin Used: $40.07 (25.1%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-23 18:00:07 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-23 12:00:08 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-21 16:00 → 2025-12-23 18:00
BTC:
Current Price: $87,394.00
50h Change: -0.84%
50h Range: $86,885.00 - $90,741.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 16: $86,357.00→$87,542.00 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$88,372.00 (+3.9%)
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,661.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 21: $88,664.00→$88,853.00 (+0.2%)
Dec 22: $88,853.00→$88,759.00 (-0.1%)
Dec 23: $88,690.00→$87,394.00 (-1.5%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-23 10:00: O=$87,703.00 H=$87,869.00 L=$87,659.00 C=$87,801.00 (+0.1%)
12-23 11:00: O=$87,753.00 H=$88,070.00 L=$87,727.00 C=$88,056.00 (+0.3%)
12-23 12:00: O=$88,028.00 H=$88,113.00 L=$87,808.00 C=$88,000.00 (-0.0%)
12-23 13:00: O=$88,000.00 H=$88,323.00 L=$87,642.00 C=$87,835.00 (-0.2%)
12-23 14:00: O=$87,814.00 H=$88,038.00 L=$86,885.00 C=$87,053.00 (-0.9%)
12-23 15:00: O=$87,034.00 H=$87,746.00 L=$86,935.00 C=$87,676.00 (+0.7%)
12-23 16:00: O=$87,662.00 H=$88,353.00 L=$87,451.00 C=$88,203.00 (+0.6%)
12-23 17:00: O=$88,180.00 H=$88,427.00 L=$87,377.00 C=$87,394.00 (-0.9%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 40.5
RSI(14): 40.3
EMA(20): $88,045.92
EMA(50): $88,728.22
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $598.64
ETH:
Current Price: $2,918.70
50h Change: -1.87%
50h Range: $2,905.00 - $3,076.50
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 16: $2,955.40→$2,952.70 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,982.80 (+6.0%)
Dec 20: $3,010.20→$2,978.50 (-1.1%)
Dec 21: $2,978.80→$3,001.30 (+0.8%)
Dec 22: $3,002.30→$3,005.70 (+0.1%)
Dec 23: $3,007.10→$2,918.70 (-2.9%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-23 10:00: O=$2,963.50 H=$2,970.30 L=$2,962.90 C=$2,966.00 (+0.1%)
12-23 11:00: O=$2,966.30 H=$2,973.60 L=$2,963.60 C=$2,972.60 (+0.2%)
12-23 12:00: O=$2,972.30 H=$2,972.50 L=$2,954.40 C=$2,957.60 (-0.5%)
12-23 13:00: O=$2,953.60 H=$2,961.20 L=$2,934.00 C=$2,941.00 (-0.4%)
12-23 14:00: O=$2,940.90 H=$2,950.70 L=$2,905.00 C=$2,914.50 (-0.9%)
12-23 15:00: O=$2,916.30 H=$2,929.60 L=$2,906.50 C=$2,927.90 (+0.4%)
12-23 16:00: O=$2,922.60 H=$2,964.70 L=$2,922.60 C=$2,956.20 (+1.1%)
12-23 17:00: O=$2,957.60 H=$2,960.30 L=$2,917.30 C=$2,918.70 (-1.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 34.6
RSI(14): 35.6
EMA(20): $2,963.63
EMA(50): $2,998.21
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $24.71
SOL:
Current Price: $122.83
50h Change: -1.81%
50h Range: $117.35 - $128.45
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 16: $127.68→$129.42 (+1.4%)
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Dec 19: $119.63→$126.41 (+5.7%)
Dec 20: $126.34→$125.96 (-0.3%)
Dec 21: $125.91→$125.90 (-0.0%)
Dec 22: $125.93→$125.58 (-0.3%)
Dec 23: $125.65→$122.83 (-2.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-23 10:00: O=$124.02 H=$124.64 L=$123.98 C=$124.58 (+0.5%)
12-23 11:00: O=$124.61 H=$125.05 L=$124.53 C=$124.69 (+0.1%)
12-23 12:00: O=$124.64 H=$124.69 L=$123.74 C=$124.08 (-0.4%)
12-23 13:00: O=$123.89 H=$124.37 L=$122.74 C=$123.07 (-0.7%)
12-23 14:00: O=$123.14 H=$123.48 L=$122.05 C=$122.22 (-0.7%)
12-23 15:00: O=$122.51 H=$123.20 L=$122.27 C=$123.09 (+0.5%)
12-23 16:00: O=$123.17 H=$124.74 L=$122.87 C=$124.48 (+1.1%)
12-23 17:00: O=$124.44 H=$124.60 L=$122.64 C=$122.83 (-1.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 39.4
RSI(14): 39.8
EMA(20): $124.25
EMA(50): $125.39
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1.15
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.04
50h Change: -0.59%
50h Range: $11.92 - $12.54
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 16: $12.35→$12.34 (-0.1%)
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Dec 19: $11.45→$12.24 (+6.8%)
Dec 20: $12.25→$12.20 (-0.5%)
Dec 21: $12.14→$12.09 (-0.4%)
Dec 22: $12.19→$12.37 (+1.5%)
Dec 23: $12.42→$12.04 (-3.0%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-23 10:00: O=$12.19 H=$12.22 L=$12.19 C=$12.20 (+0.1%)
12-23 11:00: O=$12.20 H=$12.20 L=$12.20 C=$12.20 (+0.0%)
12-23 12:00: O=$12.27 H=$12.27 L=$12.22 C=$12.22 (-0.4%)
12-23 13:00: O=$12.17 H=$12.18 L=$12.03 C=$12.04 (-1.1%)
12-23 14:00: O=$12.06 H=$12.06 L=$11.92 C=$11.93 (-1.1%)
12-23 15:00: O=$11.92 H=$11.93 L=$11.92 C=$11.93 (+0.1%)
12-23 16:00: O=$11.95 H=$12.05 L=$11.95 C=$12.03 (+0.7%)
12-23 17:00: O=$12.04 H=$12.04 L=$12.04 C=$12.04 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 40.4
RSI(14): 40.9
EMA(20): $12.15
EMA(50): $12.20
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.08
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
BTC (SHORT): 0.00134 @ $87,877.00 (Current: $87,394.00, P&L: +0.55%)
TP: $86,500.00 (+1.6%)
SL: $89,300.00 (-1.6%)
Exit Plan: TP at $86,500 (below Dec 17 low of $85,874, ~1.7% move). SL at $89,300 (above recent rejection high of $89,158 + buffer, ~1.5% risk). Exit early if: 1) Price reclaims and holds above EMA20 with volume, 2) RSI divergence forms showing momentum shift, 3) Strong bounce above $89,000 with conviction. R:R = 1.13:1 but high probability in bear structure.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
ETH SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 00:05 (0.1h)
Entry: $2,725.60, Exit: $2,828.10 P&L: -3.76% ($-8.16) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-18 13:50 (19.8h)
Entry: $123.21, Exit: $126.13 P&L: -2.37% ($-3.15) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 13:50 (13.8h)
Entry: $11.87, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.96% ($-2.66) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-18 19:50 (1.8h)
Entry: $122.89, Exit: $118.21 P&L: +3.81% ($+7.58) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 00:00 → 12-19 05:05 (5.1h)
Entry: $119.59, Exit: $122.80 P&L: -2.68% ($-2.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 06:00 (12.0h)
Entry: $2,789.30, Exit: $2,906.90 P&L: -4.22% ($-5.20) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 07:20 (13.3h)
Entry: $11.63, Exit: $12.08 P&L: -3.86% ($-6.43) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 06:00 → 12-19 09:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $122.63, Exit: $125.61 P&L: -2.43% ($-3.01) [SL_HIT]
AVAX LONG: 12-19 12:00 → 12-23 12:00 (96.0h)
Entry: $11.99, Exit: $12.27 P&L: +2.33% ($+2.17) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-23 06:00 → 12-23 15:05 (9.1h)
Entry: $124.67, Exit: $122.52 P&L: +1.72% ($+1.63) [TP_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
ETH:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: Strong bearish momentum: -2.9% today, price at $2,918.70 well below EMA20 ($2,963.63) and EMA50 ($2,998.21). Recent 17:00 candle showed -1.3% rejection from $2,960. RSI(14) at 35.6 shows weakness but not yet oversold. ETH is underperforming BTC (-1.87% vs -0.84% over 50h). Clear downtrend with lower highs/lows. Entry near current resistance, targeting support at $2,850 area (Dec 18 bounce level), with SL above $2,975 (recent consolidation high).
Confidence: 72%
Allocation: 25.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $2,850 (~2.4% move, near Dec 18 support at $2,812). SL at $2,975 (~1.9% risk, above recent consolidation and EMA20). Exit early if: 1) Price reclaims EMA20 with strong volume, 2) BTC shows strong reversal above $89,000, 3) RSI forms bullish divergence below 30. R:R = 1.26:1 in confirmed downtrend.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $159.52
Allocation: 25.0% ($39.88 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $2,918.70
Size: 0.0410 coins
Notional value: $119.67
📝 Executing SHORT 0.041 ETH @ 3x with TP: $2,850, SL: $2,975
✅ Market order filled @ $2,912.10
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45501294134)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45501295959)
SOL:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: Bearish structure intact: price at $122.83 below both EMAs (20: $124.25, 50: $125.39). Recent 17:00 candle rejected from $124.60 with -1.3% drop. RSI at 39.8 shows weakness without being oversold. SOL down -2.2% today, following broader market weakness. Recent TP hit at 06:00 validates short thesis. Entry after failed bounce, targeting $119.50 (Dec 18 low area), SL above $125.50 (EMA50 + buffer).
Confidence: 68%
Allocation: 20.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $119.50 (~2.7% move, near Dec 18 low of $119.74). SL at $125.50 (~2.2% risk, above EMA50 and recent consolidation). Exit early if: 1) Strong reversal above EMA20 with volume, 2) BTC breaks above $89,000 decisively, 3) RSI divergence forms. R:R = 1.23:1. Conservative sizing due to recent whipsaw history.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $159.52
Allocation: 20.0% ($31.90 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $122.83
Size: 0.7800 coins
Notional value: $95.81
📝 Executing SHORT 0.78 SOL @ 3x with TP: $120, SL: $126
✅ Market order filled @ $122.90
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45501301892)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45501304290)
AVAX:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: Weakest performer with clear bearish structure: -3.0% today, price at $12.04 below EMA20 ($12.15) and EMA50 ($12.20). Recent price action shows consistent rejection from $12.20-$12.27 area. RSI at 40.9 shows weakness. AVAX breaking below psychological $12.00 support. Small ATR ($0.08) suggests tight risk management possible. Targeting $11.70 (near Dec 18 low), SL above $12.35 (recent high + buffer).
Confidence: 65%
Allocation: 15.0%
Leverage: 2x
Exit Plan: TP at $11.70 (~2.8% move, near Dec 18 low of $11.41 area). SL at $12.35 (~2.6% risk, above Dec 23 high and both EMAs). Exit early if: 1) Price reclaims $12.20 with volume, 2) Market-wide reversal occurs, 3) RSI shows bullish divergence. R:R = 1.08:1. Lower leverage (2x) due to lower confidence and tight stop.
⚠️ REJECTED: total allocation would be 85.1% (current: 70.1%, new: 15.0%)
Maximum total allocation: 80%
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Existing SHORT position is working well (+0.55% P&L). Price broke below EMA20 ($88,046) and EMA50 ($88,728), confirming bearish structure. Recent 17:00 candle showed rejection from $88,427 with -0.9% drop to $87,394. RSI at 40.3 is neutral-weak but not oversold yet. TP at $86,500 is reasonable (below Dec 17 low), and SL at $89,300 provides adequate protection. Trust the TP/SL orders - no reason to manually close a winning position that's following thesis.
Confidence: 75%
💾 Database saved: run_id=184
3 order(s) executed
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