Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-24 00:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-23 18:00:07
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $155.54
Margin Used: $70.87 (45.6%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-24 00:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-23 18:00:07 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-21 22:00 → 2025-12-24 00:00
BTC:
Current Price: $87,633.00
50h Change: -0.83%
50h Range: $86,885.00 - $90,741.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$88,372.00 (+3.9%)
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,661.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 21: $88,664.00→$88,853.00 (+0.2%)
Dec 22: $88,853.00→$88,759.00 (-0.1%)
Dec 23: $88,690.00→$87,633.00 (-1.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-23 16:00: O=$87,662.00 H=$88,353.00 L=$87,451.00 C=$88,203.00 (+0.6%)
12-23 17:00: O=$88,180.00 H=$88,427.00 L=$87,377.00 C=$87,394.00 (-0.9%)
12-23 18:00: O=$87,404.00 H=$88,342.00 L=$87,320.00 C=$88,208.00 (+0.9%)
12-23 19:00: O=$88,183.00 H=$88,216.00 L=$87,841.00 C=$87,959.00 (-0.3%)
12-23 20:00: O=$87,945.00 H=$88,575.00 L=$87,725.00 C=$87,919.00 (-0.0%)
12-23 21:00: O=$87,948.00 H=$88,078.00 L=$87,748.00 C=$87,963.00 (+0.0%)
12-23 22:00: O=$87,910.00 H=$87,967.00 L=$87,500.00 C=$87,588.00 (-0.4%)
12-23 23:00: O=$87,597.00 H=$87,789.00 L=$87,404.00 C=$87,633.00 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 44.1
RSI(14): 45.0
EMA(20): $87,956.50
EMA(50): $88,650.42
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $584.54
ETH:
Current Price: $2,964.50
50h Change: -0.23%
50h Range: $2,905.00 - $3,076.50
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,982.80 (+6.0%)
Dec 20: $3,010.20→$2,978.50 (-1.1%)
Dec 21: $2,978.80→$3,001.30 (+0.8%)
Dec 22: $3,002.30→$3,005.70 (+0.1%)
Dec 23: $3,007.10→$2,966.10 (-1.4%)
Dec 24: $2,964.50→$2,964.80 (+0.0%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-23 17:00: O=$2,957.60 H=$2,960.30 L=$2,917.30 C=$2,918.70 (-1.3%)
12-23 18:00: O=$2,913.80 H=$2,950.60 L=$2,911.10 C=$2,947.10 (+1.1%)
12-23 19:00: O=$2,946.50 H=$2,952.20 L=$2,930.70 C=$2,941.20 (-0.2%)
12-23 20:00: O=$2,942.60 H=$2,986.20 L=$2,942.60 C=$2,968.90 (+0.9%)
12-23 21:00: O=$2,970.80 H=$2,974.10 L=$2,960.30 C=$2,971.70 (+0.0%)
12-23 22:00: O=$2,973.10 H=$2,977.10 L=$2,950.30 C=$2,955.30 (-0.6%)
12-23 23:00: O=$2,959.00 H=$2,971.20 L=$2,953.90 C=$2,966.10 (+0.2%)
12-24 00:00: O=$2,964.50 H=$2,964.50 L=$2,964.50 C=$2,964.50 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 53.9
RSI(14): 49.7
EMA(20): $2,962.19
EMA(50): $2,993.95
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $23.86
SOL:
Current Price: $123.72
50h Change: -1.02%
50h Range: $117.35 - $128.45
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Dec 19: $119.63→$126.41 (+5.7%)
Dec 20: $126.34→$125.96 (-0.3%)
Dec 21: $125.91→$125.90 (-0.0%)
Dec 22: $125.93→$125.58 (-0.3%)
Dec 23: $125.65→$123.72 (-1.5%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-23 16:00: O=$123.17 H=$124.74 L=$122.87 C=$124.48 (+1.1%)
12-23 17:00: O=$124.44 H=$124.60 L=$122.64 C=$122.83 (-1.3%)
12-23 18:00: O=$122.75 H=$123.85 L=$122.75 C=$123.81 (+0.9%)
12-23 19:00: O=$123.84 H=$124.33 L=$123.29 C=$123.77 (-0.1%)
12-23 20:00: O=$123.82 H=$125.30 L=$123.36 C=$124.37 (+0.4%)
12-23 21:00: O=$124.64 H=$124.64 L=$123.73 C=$124.06 (-0.5%)
12-23 22:00: O=$124.06 H=$124.30 L=$123.43 C=$123.68 (-0.3%)
12-23 23:00: O=$123.59 H=$123.95 L=$123.23 C=$123.72 (+0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 47.4
RSI(14): 45.8
EMA(20): $124.08
EMA(50): $125.21
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1.15
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.27
50h Change: +2.02%
50h Range: $11.92 - $12.54
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Dec 19: $11.45→$12.24 (+6.8%)
Dec 20: $12.25→$12.20 (-0.5%)
Dec 21: $12.14→$12.09 (-0.4%)
Dec 22: $12.19→$12.37 (+1.5%)
Dec 23: $12.42→$12.27 (-1.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-23 14:00: O=$12.06 H=$12.06 L=$11.92 C=$11.93 (-1.1%)
12-23 15:00: O=$11.92 H=$11.93 L=$11.92 C=$11.93 (+0.1%)
12-23 16:00: O=$11.95 H=$12.05 L=$11.95 C=$12.03 (+0.7%)
12-23 17:00: O=$12.04 H=$12.04 L=$12.04 C=$12.04 (+0.0%)
12-23 18:00: O=$12.13 H=$12.13 L=$12.12 C=$12.13 (-0.0%)
12-23 19:00: O=$12.13 H=$12.13 L=$12.10 C=$12.10 (-0.3%)
12-23 20:00: O=$12.09 H=$12.09 L=$12.09 C=$12.09 (+0.0%)
12-23 21:00: O=$12.31 H=$12.31 L=$12.26 C=$12.27 (-0.3%)
⚠️ WARNING: Data is 3.0h old - asset may be inactive
Indicators:
RSI(7): 67.0
RSI(14): 55.9
EMA(20): $12.15
ATR(14): $0.09
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
SOL (SHORT): 0.78 @ $122.90 (Current: $123.72, P&L: -0.67%)
TP: $119.50 (+2.8%)
SL: $125.50 (-2.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $119.50 (~2.7% move, near Dec 18 low of $119.74). SL at $125.50 (~2.2% risk, above EMA50 and recent consolidation). Exit early if: 1) Strong reversal above EMA20 with volume, 2) BTC breaks above $89,000 decisively, 3) RSI divergence forms. R:R = 1.23:1. Conservative sizing due to recent whipsaw history.
BTC (SHORT): 0.00134 @ $87,877.00 (Current: $87,633.00, P&L: +0.28%)
TP: $86,500.00 (+1.6%)
SL: $89,300.00 (-1.6%)
Exit Plan: TP at $86,500 (below Dec 17 low of $85,874, ~1.7% move). SL at $89,300 (above recent rejection high of $89,158 + buffer, ~1.5% risk). Exit early if: 1) Price reclaims and holds above EMA20 with volume, 2) RSI divergence forms showing momentum shift, 3) Strong bounce above $89,000 with conviction. R:R = 1.13:1 but high probability in bear structure.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
SOL SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-18 13:50 (19.8h)
Entry: $123.21, Exit: $126.13 P&L: -2.37% ($-3.15) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 13:50 (13.8h)
Entry: $11.87, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.96% ($-2.66) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-18 19:50 (1.8h)
Entry: $122.89, Exit: $118.21 P&L: +3.81% ($+7.58) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 00:00 → 12-19 05:05 (5.1h)
Entry: $119.59, Exit: $122.80 P&L: -2.68% ($-2.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 06:00 (12.0h)
Entry: $2,789.30, Exit: $2,906.90 P&L: -4.22% ($-5.20) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 07:20 (13.3h)
Entry: $11.63, Exit: $12.08 P&L: -3.86% ($-6.43) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 06:00 → 12-19 09:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $122.63, Exit: $125.61 P&L: -2.43% ($-3.01) [SL_HIT]
AVAX LONG: 12-19 12:00 → 12-23 12:00 (96.0h)
Entry: $11.99, Exit: $12.27 P&L: +2.33% ($+2.17) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-23 06:00 → 12-23 15:05 (9.1h)
Entry: $124.67, Exit: $122.52 P&L: +1.72% ($+1.63) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-23 18:00 → 12-23 20:50 (2.8h)
Entry: $2,912.10, Exit: $2,977.80 P&L: -2.26% ($-2.69) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
AVAX:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: AVAX showing relative strength (+2.02% over 50h) but concerning divergence emerging. RSI(7) at 67.0 is overbought while broader market (BTC/ETH/SOL) remains bearish. Price at $12.27 above EMA20 ($12.15) but this appears to be a counter-trend bounce in bear market structure. WARNING: Data is 3h old, but last candles show momentum stalling at $12.27-$12.31 range. High probability of mean reversion back to support at $12.00 area. Entry timing: fade the strength as market correlation reasserts. Conservative sizing given data lag and existing 45.6% margin usage.
Confidence: 65%
Allocation: 15.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $11.90 targets Dec 18 low area (~3.0% move, 2.1:1 R:R). SL at $12.55 above recent 50h high of $12.54 plus buffer (~2.3% risk, 1.4x ATR). Exit early if: 1) BTC breaks above $89,000 with conviction triggering risk-on, 2) Price holds above $12.40 for 4+ hours showing sustained strength, 3) Data updates show volume surge invalidating setup. Conservative 15% allocation due to data lag concern and portfolio already at 45.6% margin.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $155.54
Allocation: 15.0% ($23.33 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $12.27
Size: 5.7000 coins
Notional value: $69.94
📝 Executing SHORT 5.7 AVAX @ 3x with TP: $12, SL: $13
✅ Market order filled @ $12.17
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45513260981)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45513261632)
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Existing SHORT position is performing well (+0.28% P&L). Price trading below both EMA20 ($87,956) and EMA50 ($88,650) confirms bearish structure. Recent candles show rejection at $88,353 and continued weakness. RSI(14) at 45.0 indicates room to fall. Position approaching TP at $86,500 (only 1.3% away). Trust the TP/SL system - no need to manually close a working thesis. Current price action aligns with original short thesis.
Confidence: 75%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: No position currently. Price at $2,964.50 near EMA20 ($2,962.19) but below EMA50 ($2,993.95) - bearish structure intact. RSI(14) at 49.7 is neutral. Recent price action shows consolidation with no clear directional conviction. Just stopped out of a SHORT 2.8h ago (-2.26%), indicating choppy conditions. With BTC and SOL shorts already active (45.6% margin used), adding ETH exposure would over-concentrate portfolio risk. Wait for clearer setup - either break below $2,930 support or failed rally above $3,000 for re-entry.
Confidence: 60%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Existing SHORT position slightly underwater (-0.67% P&L) but thesis remains valid. Price at $123.72 still below EMA20 ($124.08) and EMA50 ($125.21) - bearish trend intact. RSI(14) at 45.8 shows weakness. Recent candles display range-bound chop between $123-$125, but no bullish reversal signals. TP at $119.50 targets Dec 18 low - reasonable 2.8% move. Current drawdown is within normal variance. SL at $125.50 protects against trend reversal. Trust the system - position is working as designed despite minor noise.
Confidence: 70%
💾 Database saved: run_id=185
1 order(s) executed
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