Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-24 06:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-24 00:00:08
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $159.47
Margin Used: $97.93 (61.4%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-24 06:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-24 00:00:08 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-22 04:00 → 2025-12-24 06:00
BTC:
Current Price: $87,147.00
50h Change: -2.05%
50h Range: $86,885.00 - $90,741.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$88,372.00 (+3.9%)
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,661.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 21: $88,664.00→$88,853.00 (+0.2%)
Dec 22: $88,853.00→$88,759.00 (-0.1%)
Dec 23: $88,690.00→$87,633.00 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $87,699.00→$87,147.00 (-0.6%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-23 22:00: O=$87,910.00 H=$87,967.00 L=$87,500.00 C=$87,588.00 (-0.4%)
12-23 23:00: O=$87,597.00 H=$87,789.00 L=$87,404.00 C=$87,633.00 (+0.0%)
12-24 00:00: O=$87,699.00 H=$87,834.00 L=$87,408.00 C=$87,790.00 (+0.1%)
12-24 01:00: O=$87,815.00 H=$87,972.00 L=$87,621.00 C=$87,804.00 (-0.0%)
12-24 02:00: O=$87,766.00 H=$87,802.00 L=$87,096.00 C=$87,282.00 (-0.6%)
12-24 03:00: O=$87,266.00 H=$87,571.00 L=$87,002.00 C=$87,530.00 (+0.3%)
12-24 04:00: O=$87,464.00 H=$87,659.00 L=$87,272.00 C=$87,301.00 (-0.2%)
12-24 05:00: O=$87,325.00 H=$87,886.00 L=$86,930.00 C=$87,147.00 (-0.2%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 35.5
RSI(14): 39.7
EMA(20): $87,738.26
EMA(50): $88,490.52
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $581.45
ETH:
Current Price: $2,928.30
50h Change: -3.07%
50h Range: $2,905.00 - $3,076.50
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,982.80 (+6.0%)
Dec 20: $3,010.20→$2,978.50 (-1.1%)
Dec 21: $2,978.80→$3,001.30 (+0.8%)
Dec 22: $3,002.30→$3,005.70 (+0.1%)
Dec 23: $3,007.10→$2,966.10 (-1.4%)
Dec 24: $2,964.50→$2,928.30 (-1.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-23 22:00: O=$2,973.10 H=$2,977.10 L=$2,950.30 C=$2,955.30 (-0.6%)
12-23 23:00: O=$2,959.00 H=$2,971.20 L=$2,953.90 C=$2,966.10 (+0.2%)
12-24 00:00: O=$2,964.50 H=$2,971.80 L=$2,956.30 C=$2,971.80 (+0.2%)
12-24 01:00: O=$2,973.20 H=$2,976.70 L=$2,958.40 C=$2,962.60 (-0.4%)
12-24 02:00: O=$2,963.20 H=$2,964.00 L=$2,925.30 C=$2,935.60 (-0.9%)
12-24 03:00: O=$2,934.00 H=$2,946.40 L=$2,921.50 C=$2,943.90 (+0.3%)
12-24 04:00: O=$2,945.50 H=$2,958.50 L=$2,934.10 C=$2,936.30 (-0.3%)
12-24 05:00: O=$2,935.90 H=$2,939.90 L=$2,916.70 C=$2,928.30 (-0.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 36.8
RSI(14): 40.0
EMA(20): $2,954.44
EMA(50): $2,987.26
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $24.91
SOL:
Current Price: $121.27
50h Change: -3.74%
50h Range: $120.92 - $128.45
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Dec 19: $119.63→$126.41 (+5.7%)
Dec 20: $126.34→$125.96 (-0.3%)
Dec 21: $125.91→$125.90 (-0.0%)
Dec 22: $125.93→$125.58 (-0.3%)
Dec 23: $125.65→$123.72 (-1.5%)
Dec 24: $123.89→$121.27 (-2.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-23 22:00: O=$124.06 H=$124.30 L=$123.43 C=$123.68 (-0.3%)
12-23 23:00: O=$123.59 H=$123.95 L=$123.23 C=$123.72 (+0.1%)
12-24 00:00: O=$123.89 H=$124.14 L=$123.43 C=$123.71 (-0.1%)
12-24 01:00: O=$123.73 H=$124.01 L=$122.76 C=$122.97 (-0.6%)
12-24 02:00: O=$122.98 H=$123.02 L=$121.59 C=$122.21 (-0.6%)
12-24 03:00: O=$122.12 H=$122.59 L=$121.68 C=$122.51 (+0.3%)
12-24 04:00: O=$122.58 H=$122.85 L=$121.33 C=$121.43 (-0.9%)
12-24 05:00: O=$121.41 H=$121.78 L=$120.92 C=$121.27 (-0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 25.2
RSI(14): 32.8
EMA(20): $123.26
EMA(50): $124.79
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1.10
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.03
50h Change: -1.30%
50h Range: $11.92 - $12.54
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Dec 19: $11.45→$12.24 (+6.8%)
Dec 20: $12.25→$12.20 (-0.5%)
Dec 21: $12.14→$12.09 (-0.4%)
Dec 22: $12.19→$12.37 (+1.5%)
Dec 23: $12.42→$12.27 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $12.17→$12.03 (-1.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-23 20:00: O=$12.09 H=$12.09 L=$12.09 C=$12.09 (+0.0%)
12-23 21:00: O=$12.31 H=$12.31 L=$12.26 C=$12.27 (-0.3%)
12-23 22:00: O=$12.27 H=$12.27 L=$12.27 C=$12.27 (+0.0%)
12-23 23:00: O=$12.27 H=$12.27 L=$12.27 C=$12.27 (+0.0%)
12-24 00:00: O=$12.17 H=$12.17 L=$12.13 C=$12.13 (-0.4%)
12-24 01:00: O=$12.13 H=$12.13 L=$12.13 C=$12.13 (+0.0%)
12-24 02:00: O=$12.13 H=$12.13 L=$12.13 C=$12.13 (+0.0%)
12-24 03:00: O=$11.96 H=$12.03 L=$11.96 C=$12.03 (+0.6%)
⚠️ WARNING: Data is 3.0h old - asset may be inactive
Indicators:
RSI(7): 34.0
RSI(14): 39.7
EMA(20): $12.15
ATR(14): $0.07
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
SOL (SHORT): 0.78 @ $122.90 (Current: $121.27, P&L: +1.33%)
TP: $119.50 (+2.8%)
SL: $125.50 (-2.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $119.50 (~2.7% move, near Dec 18 low of $119.74). SL at $125.50 (~2.2% risk, above EMA50 and recent consolidation). Exit early if: 1) Strong reversal above EMA20 with volume, 2) BTC breaks above $89,000 decisively, 3) RSI divergence forms. R:R = 1.23:1. Conservative sizing due to recent whipsaw history.
BTC (SHORT): 0.00134 @ $87,877.00 (Current: $87,147.00, P&L: +0.83%)
TP: $86,500.00 (+1.6%)
SL: $89,300.00 (-1.6%)
Exit Plan: TP at $86,500 (below Dec 17 low of $85,874, ~1.7% move). SL at $89,300 (above recent rejection high of $89,158 + buffer, ~1.5% risk). Exit early if: 1) Price reclaims and holds above EMA20 with volume, 2) RSI divergence forms showing momentum shift, 3) Strong bounce above $89,000 with conviction. R:R = 1.13:1 but high probability in bear structure.
AVAX (SHORT): 5.7 @ $12.17 (Current: $12.03, P&L: +1.14%)
TP: $11.90 (+2.2%)
SL: $12.55 (-3.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $11.90 targets Dec 18 low area (~3.0% move, 2.1:1 R:R). SL at $12.55 above recent 50h high of $12.54 plus buffer (~2.3% risk, 1.4x ATR). Exit early if: 1) BTC breaks above $89,000 with conviction triggering risk-on, 2) Price holds above $12.40 for 4+ hours showing sustained strength, 3) Data updates show volume surge invalidating setup. Conservative 15% allocation due to data lag concern and portfolio already at 45.6% margin.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
SOL SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-18 13:50 (19.8h)
Entry: $123.21, Exit: $126.13 P&L: -2.37% ($-3.15) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 13:50 (13.8h)
Entry: $11.87, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.96% ($-2.66) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-18 19:50 (1.8h)
Entry: $122.89, Exit: $118.21 P&L: +3.81% ($+7.58) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 00:00 → 12-19 05:05 (5.1h)
Entry: $119.59, Exit: $122.80 P&L: -2.68% ($-2.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 06:00 (12.0h)
Entry: $2,789.30, Exit: $2,906.90 P&L: -4.22% ($-5.20) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 07:20 (13.3h)
Entry: $11.63, Exit: $12.08 P&L: -3.86% ($-6.43) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 06:00 → 12-19 09:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $122.63, Exit: $125.61 P&L: -2.43% ($-3.01) [SL_HIT]
AVAX LONG: 12-19 12:00 → 12-23 12:00 (96.0h)
Entry: $11.99, Exit: $12.27 P&L: +2.33% ($+2.17) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-23 06:00 → 12-23 15:05 (9.1h)
Entry: $124.67, Exit: $122.52 P&L: +1.72% ($+1.63) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-23 18:00 → 12-23 20:50 (2.8h)
Entry: $2,912.10, Exit: $2,977.80 P&L: -2.26% ($-2.69) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
ETH:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: Strong short setup: ETH showing relative weakness vs BTC (down 3.07% vs BTC's 2.05% over 50h). Price at $2,928 below both EMA20 ($2,954) and EMA50 ($2,987) confirming bearish trend. RSI(14) at 40.0 - not oversold, room to fall. Recent 8h candles show consistent selling pressure with lower highs. Failed to hold $2,950 support multiple times. Target Dec 18 low area around $2,812 for ~4% move. Current margin usage at 61.4% allows for modest 20% allocation.
Confidence: 68%
Allocation: 20.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $2,825 targets Dec 18 low of $2,812 (~3.5% move, 1.54:1 R:R). SL at $2,995 above EMA50 at $2,987 plus buffer (~2.3% risk, 0.9x ATR). Exit early if: 1) BTC reverses strongly above $89,000, 2) Price reclaims EMA20 with volume, 3) RSI bullish divergence forms. 3x leverage appropriate for medium confidence in established downtrend.
⚠️ REJECTED: total allocation would be 81.4% (current: 61.4%, new: 20.0%)
Maximum total allocation: 80%
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Position is working as planned (+0.83% P&L). Price at $87,147 is pressing toward our TP at $86,500 (only $647 away). Bearish structure intact: price below both EMAs, RSI(14) at 39.7 showing weakness without being oversold yet, and recent 8h candles showing consistent lower pressure. The position was entered at $87,877 with good R:R (1.13:1) and the thesis remains valid - no need to manually close when TP is so close and trend is cooperating. Trust the automated TP order.
Confidence: 75%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Best performing position (+1.33% P&L). SOL showing strongest weakness with RSI(7) at extreme 25.2 and RSI(14) at 32.8 - deeply oversold but in strong downtrend. Price at $121.27 moving toward TP at $119.50 (only $1.77 away, 1.5% move remaining). Recent candles show persistent selling with new 50h low at $120.92. Bearish structure fully intact: price well below both EMAs. No reason to manually exit when TP is close and momentum is in our favor. Let the automated TP execute.
Confidence: 80%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Position showing modest gain (+1.14% P&L) but data is 3h stale which is concerning. However, the bearish thesis remains valid based on available data: price at $12.03 below EMA20 ($12.15), RSI(14) at 39.7 showing weakness, and aligned with broader market weakness in BTC/ETH/SOL. TP at $11.90 is reasonable target (Dec 18 low area). Given data lag uncertainty and that we're already at 61.4% margin usage across 3 shorts, holding is prudent. Will reassess with fresh data next run.
Confidence: 60%
💾 Database saved: run_id=186
1 order(s) executed
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