Output
============================================================
Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-24 12:00:00 UTC
============================================================
Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-24 06:00:08
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $158.01
Margin Used: $96.46 (61.1%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-24 12:00:07 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-24 06:00:08 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-22 10:00 → 2025-12-24 12:00
BTC:
Current Price: $87,348.00
50h Change: -2.95%
50h Range: $86,870.00 - $90,741.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$88,372.00 (+3.9%)
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,661.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 21: $88,664.00→$88,853.00 (+0.2%)
Dec 22: $88,853.00→$88,759.00 (-0.1%)
Dec 23: $88,690.00→$87,633.00 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $87,699.00→$87,348.00 (-0.4%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-24 04:00: O=$87,464.00 H=$87,659.00 L=$87,272.00 C=$87,301.00 (-0.2%)
12-24 05:00: O=$87,325.00 H=$87,886.00 L=$86,930.00 C=$87,147.00 (-0.2%)
12-24 06:00: O=$87,112.00 H=$87,239.00 L=$86,986.00 C=$87,159.00 (+0.1%)
12-24 07:00: O=$87,180.00 H=$87,369.00 L=$87,144.00 C=$87,151.00 (-0.0%)
12-24 08:00: O=$87,109.00 H=$87,196.00 L=$86,944.00 C=$86,953.00 (-0.2%)
12-24 09:00: O=$86,984.00 H=$87,046.00 L=$86,870.00 C=$86,945.00 (-0.0%)
12-24 10:00: O=$86,925.00 H=$87,320.00 L=$86,913.00 C=$87,226.00 (+0.3%)
12-24 11:00: O=$87,238.00 H=$87,531.00 L=$87,181.00 C=$87,348.00 (+0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 51.2
RSI(14): 45.9
EMA(20): $87,478.51
EMA(50): $88,221.44
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $478.11
ETH:
Current Price: $3,040.30
50h Change: -0.01%
50h Range: $2,905.00 - $3,076.50
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,982.80 (+6.0%)
Dec 20: $3,010.20→$2,978.50 (-1.1%)
Dec 21: $2,978.80→$3,001.30 (+0.8%)
Dec 22: $3,002.30→$3,005.70 (+0.1%)
Dec 23: $3,007.10→$2,966.10 (-1.4%)
Dec 24: $2,964.50→$3,040.30 (+2.6%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-24 05:00: O=$2,935.90 H=$2,939.90 L=$2,916.70 C=$2,928.30 (-0.3%)
12-24 06:00: O=$2,928.30 H=$2,936.60 L=$2,924.40 C=$2,932.00 (+0.1%)
12-24 07:00: O=$2,932.90 H=$2,942.10 L=$2,930.70 C=$2,934.50 (+0.1%)
12-24 08:00: O=$2,932.60 H=$2,938.30 L=$2,923.70 C=$2,923.70 (-0.3%)
12-24 09:00: O=$2,924.00 H=$3,036.60 L=$2,921.20 C=$3,001.20 (+2.6%)
12-24 10:00: O=$2,984.60 H=$3,040.00 L=$2,932.20 C=$3,018.00 (+1.1%)
12-24 11:00: O=$3,018.00 H=$3,046.60 L=$2,929.00 C=$3,026.80 (+0.3%)
12-24 12:00: O=$3,040.30 H=$3,040.30 L=$3,040.30 C=$3,040.30 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 79.3
RSI(14): 67.3
EMA(20): $2,973.02
EMA(50): $2,982.65
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $38.91
SOL:
Current Price: $121.93
50h Change: -3.31%
50h Range: $120.43 - $128.45
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Dec 19: $119.63→$126.41 (+5.7%)
Dec 20: $126.34→$125.96 (-0.3%)
Dec 21: $125.91→$125.90 (-0.0%)
Dec 22: $125.93→$125.58 (-0.3%)
Dec 23: $125.65→$123.72 (-1.5%)
Dec 24: $123.89→$121.93 (-1.6%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-24 04:00: O=$122.58 H=$122.85 L=$121.33 C=$121.43 (-0.9%)
12-24 05:00: O=$121.41 H=$121.78 L=$120.92 C=$121.27 (-0.1%)
12-24 06:00: O=$121.29 H=$121.32 L=$120.43 C=$121.32 (+0.0%)
12-24 07:00: O=$121.35 H=$121.59 L=$120.96 C=$121.18 (-0.1%)
12-24 08:00: O=$121.31 H=$121.45 L=$121.00 C=$121.22 (-0.1%)
12-24 09:00: O=$121.18 H=$121.56 L=$121.15 C=$121.18 (+0.0%)
12-24 10:00: O=$121.23 H=$122.02 L=$121.23 C=$121.54 (+0.3%)
12-24 11:00: O=$121.72 H=$122.02 L=$121.60 C=$121.93 (+0.2%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 48.3
RSI(14): 43.2
EMA(20): $122.44
EMA(50): $124.23
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.93
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.08
50h Change: -1.40%
50h Range: $11.92 - $12.54
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Dec 19: $11.45→$12.24 (+6.8%)
Dec 20: $12.25→$12.20 (-0.5%)
Dec 21: $12.14→$12.09 (-0.4%)
Dec 22: $12.19→$12.37 (+1.5%)
Dec 23: $12.42→$12.27 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $12.17→$12.08 (-0.8%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-24 03:00: O=$11.96 H=$12.03 L=$11.96 C=$12.03 (+0.6%)
12-24 04:00: O=$12.03 H=$12.03 L=$12.03 C=$12.03 (+0.0%)
12-24 05:00: O=$12.03 H=$12.03 L=$12.03 C=$12.03 (+0.0%)
12-24 06:00: O=$12.00 H=$12.00 L=$11.99 C=$11.99 (-0.0%)
12-24 07:00: O=$11.99 H=$11.99 L=$11.99 C=$11.99 (+0.0%)
12-24 08:00: O=$11.99 H=$11.99 L=$11.99 C=$11.99 (+0.0%)
12-24 09:00: O=$12.03 H=$12.03 L=$12.03 C=$12.03 (+0.0%)
12-24 10:00: O=$12.08 H=$12.08 L=$12.08 C=$12.08 (+0.0%)
⚠️ WARNING: Data is 2.0h old - asset may be inactive
Indicators:
RSI(7): 53.3
RSI(14): 49.3
EMA(20): $12.09
ATR(14): $0.05
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
SOL (SHORT): 0.78 @ $122.90 (Current: $121.93, P&L: +0.79%)
TP: $119.50 (+2.8%)
SL: $125.50 (-2.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $119.50 (~2.7% move, near Dec 18 low of $119.74). SL at $125.50 (~2.2% risk, above EMA50 and recent consolidation). Exit early if: 1) Strong reversal above EMA20 with volume, 2) BTC breaks above $89,000 decisively, 3) RSI divergence forms. R:R = 1.23:1. Conservative sizing due to recent whipsaw history.
BTC (SHORT): 0.00134 @ $87,877.00 (Current: $87,348.00, P&L: +0.60%)
TP: $86,500.00 (+1.6%)
SL: $89,300.00 (-1.6%)
Exit Plan: TP at $86,500 (below Dec 17 low of $85,874, ~1.7% move). SL at $89,300 (above recent rejection high of $89,158 + buffer, ~1.5% risk). Exit early if: 1) Price reclaims and holds above EMA20 with volume, 2) RSI divergence forms showing momentum shift, 3) Strong bounce above $89,000 with conviction. R:R = 1.13:1 but high probability in bear structure.
AVAX (SHORT): 5.7 @ $12.17 (Current: $12.08, P&L: +0.79%)
TP: $11.90 (+2.2%)
SL: $12.55 (-3.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $11.90 targets Dec 18 low area (~3.0% move, 2.1:1 R:R). SL at $12.55 above recent 50h high of $12.54 plus buffer (~2.3% risk, 1.4x ATR). Exit early if: 1) BTC breaks above $89,000 with conviction triggering risk-on, 2) Price holds above $12.40 for 4+ hours showing sustained strength, 3) Data updates show volume surge invalidating setup. Conservative 15% allocation due to data lag concern and portfolio already at 45.6% margin.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
SOL SHORT: 12-17 18:00 → 12-18 13:50 (19.8h)
Entry: $123.21, Exit: $126.13 P&L: -2.37% ($-3.15) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 13:50 (13.8h)
Entry: $11.87, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.96% ($-2.66) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-18 19:50 (1.8h)
Entry: $122.89, Exit: $118.21 P&L: +3.81% ($+7.58) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 00:00 → 12-19 05:05 (5.1h)
Entry: $119.59, Exit: $122.80 P&L: -2.68% ($-2.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 06:00 (12.0h)
Entry: $2,789.30, Exit: $2,906.90 P&L: -4.22% ($-5.20) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 07:20 (13.3h)
Entry: $11.63, Exit: $12.08 P&L: -3.86% ($-6.43) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 06:00 → 12-19 09:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $122.63, Exit: $125.61 P&L: -2.43% ($-3.01) [SL_HIT]
AVAX LONG: 12-19 12:00 → 12-23 12:00 (96.0h)
Entry: $11.99, Exit: $12.27 P&L: +2.33% ($+2.17) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-23 06:00 → 12-23 15:05 (9.1h)
Entry: $124.67, Exit: $122.52 P&L: +1.72% ($+1.63) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-23 18:00 → 12-23 20:50 (2.8h)
Entry: $2,912.10, Exit: $2,977.80 P&L: -2.26% ($-2.69) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
ETH:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: ETH showing sharp +2.6% spike in last 3 hours (Dec 24 09:00-12:00) from $2,924 to $3,040, but this appears to be a bear market rally into resistance. RSI(7) at 79.3 is extremely overbought, RSI(14) at 67.3 also elevated. Price still below EMA50 ($2,982.65) confirming overall bearish trend. Current price $3,040 is at the top of 50h range ($3,076.50 high). This looks like a liquidity grab before continuation lower. Strong divergence opportunity - overbought conditions in downtrend typically lead to rejections. Entry at resistance with tight stop above recent high.
Confidence: 68%
Allocation: 18.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $2,880 targets ~5.3% move back toward EMA50 and Dec 23 low area ($2,966). SL at $3,100 (~2.0% risk) above 50h high of $3,076.50 plus buffer. R:R = 2.65:1. Exit early if: 1) Price breaks and holds above $3,080 with volume showing genuine breakout, 2) BTC reverses strongly above $89,000, 3) RSI stays elevated above 70 for 4+ hours suggesting momentum shift. Using 18% allocation (3x leverage = 54% notional) due to overbought setup but respecting current 61% margin usage.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $158.01
Allocation: 18.0% ($28.44 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $3,040.30
Size: 0.0281 coins
Notional value: $85.43
📝 Executing SHORT 0.0281 ETH @ 3x with TP: $2,880, SL: $3,100
✅ Market order filled @ $3,031.80
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45535246537)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45535247619)
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Existing SHORT position at $87,877 is up +0.60% and working well. Price currently at $87,348, trading below both EMA20 ($87,478) and EMA50 ($88,221) confirming bearish structure. Recent 8h candles show consolidation around $87,000-$87,500 with no reversal signals. RSI(14) at 45.9 is neutral. TP at $86,500 is reasonable (1.6% away) and SL at $89,300 provides adequate protection. No reason to exit early - let the position run to TP/SL as planned. Bearish trend remains intact.
Confidence: 75%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Existing SHORT position at $122.90 is up +0.79% and performing as expected. Current price $121.93 is below entry and trending toward TP at $119.50 (1.2% away). Price remains below EMA20 ($122.44) and EMA50 ($124.23) confirming bearish structure. RSI(14) at 43.2 shows no oversold bounce yet. Recent 8h candles show tight consolidation around $121-$122 with no reversal pattern. TP target of $119.50 aligns with Dec 18 low area. Position is working - let it run to target.
Confidence: 72%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Existing SHORT position at $12.17 is up +0.79% and showing proper downtrend continuation. Current price $12.08, moving toward TP at $11.90 (1.5% away). However, data is 2 hours stale which is concerning. Recent visible candles show extremely tight range with multiple $0.00 changes suggesting low liquidity or data issues. Price below EMA20 ($12.09) confirms bearish bias. RSI(14) at 49.3 is neutral. Given data staleness warning and position already profitable, will hold but monitor closely. TP at $11.90 targets Dec 18 low area. Position sizing was conservative at 15% for this reason.
Confidence: 60%
💾 Database saved: run_id=187
1 order(s) executed
============================================================