Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-24 18:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-24 12:00:07
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $159.80
Margin Used: $102.23 (64.0%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-24 18:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-24 12:00:07 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-22 16:00 → 2025-12-24 18:00
BTC:
Current Price: $87,412.00
50h Change: -2.80%
50h Range: $86,618.00 - $90,238.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 17: $87,542.00→$85,874.00 (-1.9%)
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$88,372.00 (+3.9%)
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,661.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 21: $88,664.00→$88,853.00 (+0.2%)
Dec 22: $88,853.00→$88,759.00 (-0.1%)
Dec 23: $88,690.00→$87,633.00 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $87,699.00→$87,412.00 (-0.3%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-24 10:00: O=$86,925.00 H=$87,320.00 L=$86,913.00 C=$87,226.00 (+0.3%)
12-24 11:00: O=$87,238.00 H=$87,531.00 L=$87,181.00 C=$87,348.00 (+0.1%)
12-24 12:00: O=$87,300.00 H=$87,645.00 L=$87,266.00 C=$87,612.00 (+0.4%)
12-24 13:00: O=$87,587.00 H=$87,628.00 L=$87,244.00 C=$87,467.00 (-0.1%)
12-24 14:00: O=$87,484.00 H=$87,623.00 L=$86,618.00 C=$87,087.00 (-0.5%)
12-24 15:00: O=$87,108.00 H=$87,364.00 L=$86,764.00 C=$87,233.00 (+0.1%)
12-24 16:00: O=$87,109.00 H=$88,073.00 L=$87,072.00 C=$87,434.00 (+0.4%)
12-24 17:00: O=$87,428.00 H=$87,712.00 L=$87,412.00 C=$87,412.00 (-0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 53.0
RSI(14): 46.2
EMA(20): $87,423.68
EMA(50): $87,886.40
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $525.84
ETH:
Current Price: $3,008.50
50h Change: -1.42%
50h Range: $2,905.00 - $3,059.30
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 17: $2,952.70→$2,725.90 (-7.7%)
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,982.80 (+6.0%)
Dec 20: $3,010.20→$2,978.50 (-1.1%)
Dec 21: $2,978.80→$3,001.30 (+0.8%)
Dec 22: $3,002.30→$3,005.70 (+0.1%)
Dec 23: $3,007.10→$2,966.10 (-1.4%)
Dec 24: $2,964.50→$3,008.50 (+1.5%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-24 10:00: O=$2,984.60 H=$3,040.00 L=$2,932.20 C=$3,018.00 (+1.1%)
12-24 11:00: O=$3,018.00 H=$3,046.60 L=$2,929.00 C=$3,026.80 (+0.3%)
12-24 12:00: O=$3,040.30 H=$3,040.30 L=$2,965.80 C=$2,992.80 (-1.6%)
12-24 13:00: O=$2,997.60 H=$3,036.50 L=$2,974.90 C=$2,993.70 (-0.1%)
12-24 14:00: O=$2,994.00 H=$3,034.70 L=$2,965.80 C=$2,982.20 (-0.4%)
12-24 15:00: O=$2,981.80 H=$3,025.90 L=$2,934.50 C=$2,995.00 (+0.4%)
12-24 16:00: O=$2,985.30 H=$3,034.80 L=$2,931.00 C=$2,943.20 (-1.4%)
12-24 17:00: O=$3,000.00 H=$3,050.50 L=$2,955.50 C=$3,008.50 (+0.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 58.9
RSI(14): 55.8
EMA(20): $2,974.64
EMA(50): $2,972.35
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $57.18
SOL:
Current Price: $121.96
50h Change: -4.81%
50h Range: $120.43 - $128.23
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 17: $129.17→$123.21 (-4.6%)
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Dec 19: $119.63→$126.41 (+5.7%)
Dec 20: $126.34→$125.96 (-0.3%)
Dec 21: $125.91→$125.90 (-0.0%)
Dec 22: $125.93→$125.58 (-0.3%)
Dec 23: $125.65→$123.72 (-1.5%)
Dec 24: $123.89→$121.96 (-1.6%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-24 10:00: O=$121.23 H=$122.02 L=$121.23 C=$121.54 (+0.3%)
12-24 11:00: O=$121.72 H=$122.02 L=$121.60 C=$121.93 (+0.2%)
12-24 12:00: O=$121.87 H=$122.34 L=$121.76 C=$122.34 (+0.4%)
12-24 13:00: O=$122.24 H=$122.24 L=$121.52 C=$121.78 (-0.4%)
12-24 14:00: O=$121.70 H=$122.10 L=$120.56 C=$121.23 (-0.4%)
12-24 15:00: O=$121.31 H=$122.71 L=$121.07 C=$122.48 (+1.0%)
12-24 16:00: O=$122.65 H=$123.29 L=$122.28 C=$122.56 (-0.1%)
12-24 17:00: O=$122.66 H=$122.73 L=$121.90 C=$121.96 (-0.6%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 48.4
RSI(14): 43.9
EMA(20): $122.27
EMA(50): $123.63
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.98
AVAX:
Current Price: $11.98
50h Change: -3.00%
50h Range: $11.90 - $12.54
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 17: $12.34→$11.84 (-4.0%)
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Dec 19: $11.45→$12.24 (+6.8%)
Dec 20: $12.25→$12.20 (-0.5%)
Dec 21: $12.14→$12.09 (-0.4%)
Dec 22: $12.19→$12.37 (+1.5%)
Dec 23: $12.42→$12.27 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $12.17→$11.98 (-1.6%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-24 10:00: O=$12.08 H=$12.08 L=$12.08 C=$12.08 (+0.0%)
12-24 11:00: O=$12.08 H=$12.08 L=$12.08 C=$12.08 (+0.0%)
12-24 12:00: O=$12.08 H=$12.08 L=$12.08 C=$12.08 (+0.0%)
12-24 13:00: O=$12.08 H=$12.08 L=$12.08 C=$12.08 (+0.0%)
12-24 14:00: O=$12.04 H=$12.04 L=$11.90 C=$12.02 (-0.2%)
12-24 15:00: O=$11.93 H=$11.96 L=$11.93 C=$11.94 (+0.1%)
12-24 16:00: O=$11.94 H=$11.94 L=$11.94 C=$11.94 (+0.0%)
12-24 17:00: O=$11.98 H=$11.99 L=$11.98 C=$11.98 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 38.9
RSI(14): 41.3
EMA(20): $12.05
EMA(50): $12.15
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.05
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
SOL (SHORT): 0.78 @ $122.90 (Current: $121.96, P&L: +0.76%)
TP: $119.50 (+2.8%)
SL: $125.50 (-2.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $119.50 (~2.7% move, near Dec 18 low of $119.74). SL at $125.50 (~2.2% risk, above EMA50 and recent consolidation). Exit early if: 1) Strong reversal above EMA20 with volume, 2) BTC breaks above $89,000 decisively, 3) RSI divergence forms. R:R = 1.23:1. Conservative sizing due to recent whipsaw history.
BTC (SHORT): 0.00134 @ $87,877.00 (Current: $87,412.00, P&L: +0.53%)
TP: $86,500.00 (+1.6%)
SL: $89,300.00 (-1.6%)
Exit Plan: TP at $86,500 (below Dec 17 low of $85,874, ~1.7% move). SL at $89,300 (above recent rejection high of $89,158 + buffer, ~1.5% risk). Exit early if: 1) Price reclaims and holds above EMA20 with volume, 2) RSI divergence forms showing momentum shift, 3) Strong bounce above $89,000 with conviction. R:R = 1.13:1 but high probability in bear structure.
ETH (SHORT): 0.0281 @ $3,031.80 (Current: $3,008.50, P&L: +0.77%)
TP: $2,880.00 (+5.0%)
SL: $3,100.00 (-2.2%)
Exit Plan: TP at $2,880 targets ~5.3% move back toward EMA50 and Dec 23 low area ($2,966). SL at $3,100 (~2.0% risk) above 50h high of $3,076.50 plus buffer. R:R = 2.65:1. Exit early if: 1) Price breaks and holds above $3,080 with volume showing genuine breakout, 2) BTC reverses strongly above $89,000, 3) RSI stays elevated above 70 for 4+ hours suggesting momentum shift. Using 18% allocation (3x leverage = 54% notional) due to overbought setup but respecting current 61% margin usage.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 00:00 → 12-18 13:50 (13.8h)
Entry: $11.87, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.96% ($-2.66) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-18 19:50 (1.8h)
Entry: $122.89, Exit: $118.21 P&L: +3.81% ($+7.58) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 00:00 → 12-19 05:05 (5.1h)
Entry: $119.59, Exit: $122.80 P&L: -2.68% ($-2.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 06:00 (12.0h)
Entry: $2,789.30, Exit: $2,906.90 P&L: -4.22% ($-5.20) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 07:20 (13.3h)
Entry: $11.63, Exit: $12.08 P&L: -3.86% ($-6.43) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 06:00 → 12-19 09:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $122.63, Exit: $125.61 P&L: -2.43% ($-3.01) [SL_HIT]
AVAX LONG: 12-19 12:00 → 12-23 12:00 (96.0h)
Entry: $11.99, Exit: $12.27 P&L: +2.33% ($+2.17) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-23 06:00 → 12-23 15:05 (9.1h)
Entry: $124.67, Exit: $122.52 P&L: +1.72% ($+1.63) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-23 18:00 → 12-23 20:50 (2.8h)
Entry: $2,912.10, Exit: $2,977.80 P&L: -2.26% ($-2.69) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-24 00:00 → 12-24 14:50 (14.8h)
Entry: $12.17, Exit: $11.91 P&L: +2.13% ($+1.48) [TP_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
ETH:
→ CLOSE
Reasoning: ETH showing divergence from BTC/SOL bearish structure. Price at $3,008.50 now ABOVE both EMA20 ($2,975) and EMA50 ($2,972) - bullish trend confirmed. RSI(14) at 55.8 (neutral-bullish) vs BTC 46.2 (bearish). Recent candles show buying pressure with recovery from $2,931 to $3,050 range. This contradicts our SHORT thesis - ETH has relative strength. Close now at +0.77% before it invalidates further. Christmas Eve thin liquidity could amplify moves against us.
Confidence: 72%
Exit Plan: None
📝 Closing position for ETH (market order)
✅ Market close order filled
AVAX:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: Strong SHORT setup: Price $11.98 below both EMAs (20: $12.05, 50: $12.15) confirming bearish trend. RSI(14) at 41.3 shows weakness without oversold bounce risk. Recent TP hit at $11.91 proves downside momentum. Price making lower highs from $12.42→$12.27→$12.08→$11.98. Christmas Eve low liquidity favors continuation. ATR $0.05 allows tight stops. Entry at market with TP at $11.70 (below 50h low $11.90) and SL at $12.25 (above EMA20 + buffer). R:R = 2.3:1.
Confidence: 68%
Allocation: 15.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $11.70 targets breakdown below 50h low of $11.90 (~2.3% move). SL at $12.25 (~2.3% risk) above EMA20 and recent resistance. Exit early if: 1) Price reclaims $12.15 (EMA50) with volume, 2) BTC reverses strongly above $89,000, 3) RSI forms bullish divergence above 50. Using conservative 15% allocation (3x = 45% notional) to keep total margin under 75% given existing positions.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $159.80
Allocation: 15.0% ($23.97 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $11.98
Size: 6.0000 coins
Notional value: $71.90
📝 Executing SHORT 6.0 AVAX @ 3x with TP: $12, SL: $12
✅ Market order filled @ $11.91
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45549627911)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45549628464)
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SHORT position +0.53% P&L with clear bearish structure intact. Price at $87,412 remains below both EMA20 ($87,424) and EMA50 ($87,886). Recent candles show rejection at $88,073 and price grinding lower. TP at $86,500 is reasonable target (below Dec 17 low). No reason to close early - thesis remains valid, SL at $89,300 provides protection. Trust the TP/SL orders.
Confidence: 75%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SHORT position +0.76% P&L with bearish structure holding. Price $121.96 below EMA20 ($122.27) and EMA50 ($123.63). RSI(14) at 43.9 shows weakness. Recent candles declining from $122.73 to $121.96. TP at $119.50 aligns with Dec 18 low support - achievable target. No technical invalidation yet. Current margin usage 64% leaves room, and SOL correlates with BTC weakness. Trust the TP/SL execution.
Confidence: 70%
💾 Database saved: run_id=188
2 order(s) executed
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