Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-25 06:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-25 00:00:08
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $156.78
Margin Used: $71.24 (45.4%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-25 06:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-25 00:00:08 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-23 04:00 → 2025-12-25 06:00
BTC:
Current Price: $88,571.00
50h Change: +0.19%
50h Range: $86,618.00 - $89,881.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$88,372.00 (+3.9%)
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,661.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 21: $88,664.00→$88,853.00 (+0.2%)
Dec 22: $88,853.00→$88,759.00 (-0.1%)
Dec 23: $88,690.00→$87,633.00 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $87,699.00→$88,000.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 25: $88,159.00→$88,571.00 (+0.5%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-24 22:00: O=$87,857.00 H=$88,216.00 L=$87,852.00 C=$88,206.00 (+0.4%)
12-24 23:00: O=$88,166.00 H=$89,354.00 L=$87,772.00 C=$88,000.00 (-0.2%)
12-25 00:00: O=$88,159.00 H=$89,299.00 L=$87,725.00 C=$88,500.00 (+0.4%)
12-25 01:00: O=$88,071.00 H=$89,377.00 L=$87,735.00 C=$89,167.00 (+1.2%)
12-25 02:00: O=$88,707.00 H=$89,881.00 L=$87,814.00 C=$88,361.00 (-0.4%)
12-25 03:00: O=$88,361.00 H=$89,478.00 L=$88,019.00 C=$88,500.00 (+0.2%)
12-25 04:00: O=$88,437.00 H=$89,195.00 L=$88,009.00 C=$88,086.00 (-0.4%)
12-25 05:00: O=$88,044.00 H=$89,195.00 L=$87,968.00 C=$88,571.00 (+0.6%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 59.0
RSI(14): 57.2
EMA(20): $88,019.96
EMA(50): $87,730.14
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $875.22
ETH:
Current Price: $3,015.10
50h Change: +0.81%
50h Range: $2,905.00 - $3,068.50
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,982.80 (+6.0%)
Dec 20: $3,010.20→$2,978.50 (-1.1%)
Dec 21: $2,978.80→$3,001.30 (+0.8%)
Dec 22: $3,002.30→$3,005.70 (+0.1%)
Dec 23: $3,007.10→$2,966.10 (-1.4%)
Dec 24: $2,964.50→$2,988.20 (+0.8%)
Dec 25: $2,995.50→$3,015.10 (+0.7%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-24 22:00: O=$3,054.20 H=$3,066.90 L=$2,958.40 C=$2,979.30 (-2.5%)
12-24 23:00: O=$2,979.70 H=$3,068.50 L=$2,961.50 C=$2,988.20 (+0.3%)
12-25 00:00: O=$2,995.50 H=$3,055.70 L=$2,945.00 C=$2,984.80 (-0.4%)
12-25 01:00: O=$2,992.30 H=$3,054.30 L=$2,949.50 C=$3,002.50 (+0.3%)
12-25 02:00: O=$3,007.90 H=$3,059.00 L=$2,960.40 C=$3,042.20 (+1.1%)
12-25 03:00: O=$3,044.00 H=$3,062.90 L=$2,953.80 C=$2,999.90 (-1.4%)
12-25 04:00: O=$3,017.90 H=$3,055.50 L=$2,953.40 C=$3,047.30 (+1.0%)
12-25 05:00: O=$3,003.00 H=$3,051.80 L=$2,952.10 C=$3,015.10 (+0.4%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 52.1
RSI(14): 52.7
EMA(20): $2,999.85
EMA(50): $2,972.97
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $83.38
SOL:
Current Price: $122.08
50h Change: -2.66%
50h Range: $120.43 - $125.87
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Dec 19: $119.63→$126.41 (+5.7%)
Dec 20: $126.34→$125.96 (-0.3%)
Dec 21: $125.91→$125.90 (-0.0%)
Dec 22: $125.93→$125.58 (-0.3%)
Dec 23: $125.65→$123.72 (-1.5%)
Dec 24: $123.89→$122.24 (-1.3%)
Dec 25: $122.33→$122.08 (-0.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-24 22:00: O=$122.74 H=$123.11 L=$122.71 C=$123.09 (+0.3%)
12-24 23:00: O=$123.04 H=$123.07 L=$122.24 C=$122.24 (-0.7%)
12-25 00:00: O=$122.33 H=$122.54 L=$121.92 C=$121.92 (-0.3%)
12-25 01:00: O=$122.06 H=$122.58 L=$122.01 C=$122.54 (+0.4%)
12-25 02:00: O=$122.60 H=$122.98 L=$122.31 C=$122.82 (+0.2%)
12-25 03:00: O=$122.85 H=$122.90 L=$122.29 C=$122.51 (-0.3%)
12-25 04:00: O=$122.51 H=$122.66 L=$122.37 C=$122.56 (+0.0%)
12-25 05:00: O=$122.54 H=$122.56 L=$121.96 C=$122.08 (-0.4%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 42.9
RSI(14): 44.6
EMA(20): $122.41
EMA(50): $122.87
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.75
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.22
50h Change: -1.44%
50h Range: $11.90 - $12.39
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Dec 19: $11.45→$12.24 (+6.8%)
Dec 20: $12.25→$12.20 (-0.5%)
Dec 21: $12.14→$12.09 (-0.4%)
Dec 22: $12.19→$12.37 (+1.5%)
Dec 23: $12.42→$12.27 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $12.17→$12.10 (-0.6%)
Dec 25: $12.10→$12.22 (+1.0%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-24 20:00: O=$12.03 H=$12.03 L=$12.03 C=$12.03 (+0.0%)
12-24 21:00: O=$12.06 H=$12.06 L=$12.06 C=$12.06 (-0.0%)
12-24 22:00: O=$12.06 H=$12.12 L=$12.06 C=$12.12 (+0.5%)
12-24 23:00: O=$12.10 H=$12.14 L=$12.10 C=$12.10 (-0.1%)
12-25 00:00: O=$12.10 H=$12.10 L=$12.08 C=$12.08 (-0.1%)
12-25 01:00: O=$12.08 H=$12.08 L=$12.08 C=$12.08 (+0.0%)
12-25 02:00: O=$12.17 H=$12.18 L=$12.17 C=$12.18 (+0.0%)
12-25 03:00: O=$12.21 H=$12.22 L=$12.21 C=$12.22 (+0.1%)
⚠️ WARNING: Data is 3.0h old - asset may be inactive
Indicators:
RSI(7): 79.4
RSI(14): 58.3
EMA(20): $12.08
ATR(14): $0.05
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
SOL (SHORT): 0.78 @ $122.90 (Current: $122.08, P&L: +0.67%)
TP: $119.50 (+2.8%)
SL: $125.50 (-2.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $119.50 (~2.7% move, near Dec 18 low of $119.74). SL at $125.50 (~2.2% risk, above EMA50 and recent consolidation). Exit early if: 1) Strong reversal above EMA20 with volume, 2) BTC breaks above $89,000 decisively, 3) RSI divergence forms. R:R = 1.23:1. Conservative sizing due to recent whipsaw history.
BTC (SHORT): 0.00134 @ $87,877.00 (Current: $88,571.00, P&L: -0.79%)
TP: $86,500.00 (+1.6%)
SL: $89,300.00 (-1.6%)
Exit Plan: TP at $86,500 (below Dec 17 low of $85,874, ~1.7% move). SL at $89,300 (above recent rejection high of $89,158 + buffer, ~1.5% risk). Exit early if: 1) Price reclaims and holds above EMA20 with volume, 2) RSI divergence forms showing momentum shift, 3) Strong bounce above $89,000 with conviction. R:R = 1.13:1 but high probability in bear structure.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
SOL SHORT: 12-19 00:00 → 12-19 05:05 (5.1h)
Entry: $119.59, Exit: $122.80 P&L: -2.68% ($-2.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 06:00 (12.0h)
Entry: $2,789.30, Exit: $2,906.90 P&L: -4.22% ($-5.20) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 07:20 (13.3h)
Entry: $11.63, Exit: $12.08 P&L: -3.86% ($-6.43) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 06:00 → 12-19 09:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $122.63, Exit: $125.61 P&L: -2.43% ($-3.01) [SL_HIT]
AVAX LONG: 12-19 12:00 → 12-23 12:00 (96.0h)
Entry: $11.99, Exit: $12.27 P&L: +2.33% ($+2.17) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-23 06:00 → 12-23 15:05 (9.1h)
Entry: $124.67, Exit: $122.52 P&L: +1.72% ($+1.63) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-23 18:00 → 12-23 20:50 (2.8h)
Entry: $2,912.10, Exit: $2,977.80 P&L: -2.26% ($-2.69) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-24 00:00 → 12-24 14:50 (14.8h)
Entry: $12.17, Exit: $11.91 P&L: +2.13% ($+1.48) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-24 12:00 → 12-24 18:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $3,031.80, Exit: $3,021.10 P&L: +0.35% ($+0.30) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-24 18:00 → 12-25 00:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $11.91, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.56% ($-1.12) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Position currently -0.79% but thesis remains valid. Price rejected at $89,881 (near our SL of $89,300) and is consolidating. Recent 8h candles show volatility with wicks but no decisive breakout above $89,300. EMA structure still bullish (price above both EMAs) but momentum is weakening. RSI at 59 (neutral). With Christmas Day low liquidity, holding position and trusting our SL rather than manually closing at a small loss. If price breaks above $89,300, SL will execute automatically.
Confidence: 60%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: No position currently. Price at $3,015 is consolidating in tight range ($2,945-$3,068). EMA trend bullish (price above both 20/50 EMAs) but RSI neutral at 52. Recent candles show high volatility with large wicks indicating indecision. With 45.4% margin already used and two active shorts, adding a third position would exceed safe margin limits. Market showing mixed signals - not clear enough setup for entry. Christmas Day liquidity concerns also warrant caution.
Confidence: 50%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Position +0.67% and working well. Price at $122.08 moving toward our TP of $119.50. EMA trend bearish (price below EMA50 at $122.87, just below EMA20 at $122.41). RSI at 42.9 showing weakness without being oversold. Recent 8h candles show consistent downward pressure with lower highs. 50h range shows -2.66% decline. Position thesis intact - SOL showing relative weakness vs BTC/ETH. Trust our TP/SL orders rather than manually closing for small gain. Price needs to move another ~2% to hit TP.
Confidence: 65%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: No position. Data is 3h stale (last update 03:00, now 06:00) which is concerning for decision-making. Last known price $12.22, RSI(7) extremely elevated at 79.4 suggesting overbought but RSI(14) more moderate at 58.3. Price above EMA20 at $12.08. However, with stale data, cannot accurately assess current market conditions. With margin usage at 45.4% and two active shorts, prudent to wait for fresh data before considering new position. AVAX has been choppy with multiple stop-outs in recent history.
Confidence: 40%
💾 Database saved: run_id=190
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