Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-25 12:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-25 06:00:08
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $157.75
Margin Used: $72.21 (45.8%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-25 12:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-25 06:00:08 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-23 10:00 → 2025-12-25 12:00
BTC:
Current Price: $88,217.00
50h Change: +0.59%
50h Range: $86,618.00 - $89,881.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 18: $86,000.00→$85,063.00 (-1.1%)
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$88,372.00 (+3.9%)
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,661.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 21: $88,664.00→$88,853.00 (+0.2%)
Dec 22: $88,853.00→$88,759.00 (-0.1%)
Dec 23: $88,690.00→$87,633.00 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $87,699.00→$88,000.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 25: $88,159.00→$88,217.00 (+0.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-25 04:00: O=$88,437.00 H=$89,195.00 L=$88,009.00 C=$88,086.00 (-0.4%)
12-25 05:00: O=$88,044.00 H=$89,195.00 L=$87,968.00 C=$88,571.00 (+0.6%)
12-25 06:00: O=$88,571.00 H=$88,806.00 L=$88,055.00 C=$88,289.00 (-0.3%)
12-25 07:00: O=$88,289.00 H=$89,195.00 L=$88,159.00 C=$88,228.00 (-0.1%)
12-25 08:00: O=$88,663.00 H=$88,705.00 L=$87,707.00 C=$88,363.00 (-0.3%)
12-25 09:00: O=$88,353.00 H=$88,748.00 L=$87,709.00 C=$87,770.00 (-0.7%)
12-25 10:00: O=$88,391.00 H=$88,621.00 L=$87,654.00 C=$88,481.00 (+0.1%)
12-25 11:00: O=$88,484.00 H=$88,651.00 L=$87,701.00 C=$88,217.00 (-0.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 50.3
RSI(14): 53.2
EMA(20): $88,115.09
EMA(50): $87,777.36
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $911.56
ETH:
Current Price: $2,975.40
50h Change: +0.40%
50h Range: $2,905.00 - $3,068.50
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 18: $2,725.60→$2,812.50 (+3.2%)
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,982.80 (+6.0%)
Dec 20: $3,010.20→$2,978.50 (-1.1%)
Dec 21: $2,978.80→$3,001.30 (+0.8%)
Dec 22: $3,002.30→$3,005.70 (+0.1%)
Dec 23: $3,007.10→$2,966.10 (-1.4%)
Dec 24: $2,964.50→$2,988.20 (+0.8%)
Dec 25: $2,995.50→$2,975.40 (-0.7%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-25 05:00: O=$3,003.00 H=$3,051.80 L=$2,952.10 C=$3,015.10 (+0.4%)
12-25 06:00: O=$3,015.10 H=$3,053.20 L=$2,967.70 C=$2,967.70 (-1.6%)
12-25 07:00: O=$2,969.00 H=$3,053.30 L=$2,954.00 C=$2,982.50 (+0.5%)
12-25 08:00: O=$2,982.50 H=$3,045.70 L=$2,927.50 C=$2,970.40 (-0.4%)
12-25 09:00: O=$2,997.60 H=$3,031.40 L=$2,934.90 C=$3,001.00 (+0.1%)
12-25 10:00: O=$3,001.00 H=$3,040.80 L=$2,937.40 C=$3,004.60 (+0.1%)
12-25 11:00: O=$3,004.50 H=$3,025.70 L=$2,950.70 C=$2,991.50 (-0.4%)
12-25 12:00: O=$2,975.40 H=$2,975.40 L=$2,975.40 C=$2,975.40 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 43.1
RSI(14): 47.8
EMA(20): $2,992.63
EMA(50): $2,975.14
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $82.93
SOL:
Current Price: $121.48
50h Change: -2.05%
50h Range: $120.43 - $125.30
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 18: $123.20→$119.74 (-2.8%)
Dec 19: $119.63→$126.41 (+5.7%)
Dec 20: $126.34→$125.96 (-0.3%)
Dec 21: $125.91→$125.90 (-0.0%)
Dec 22: $125.93→$125.58 (-0.3%)
Dec 23: $125.65→$123.72 (-1.5%)
Dec 24: $123.89→$122.24 (-1.3%)
Dec 25: $122.33→$121.48 (-0.7%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-25 04:00: O=$122.51 H=$122.66 L=$122.37 C=$122.56 (+0.0%)
12-25 05:00: O=$122.54 H=$122.56 L=$121.96 C=$122.08 (-0.4%)
12-25 06:00: O=$122.18 H=$122.30 L=$121.91 C=$122.25 (+0.1%)
12-25 07:00: O=$122.19 H=$122.26 L=$121.77 C=$122.02 (-0.1%)
12-25 08:00: O=$122.10 H=$122.43 L=$121.52 C=$121.88 (-0.2%)
12-25 09:00: O=$121.99 H=$122.01 L=$121.67 C=$121.87 (-0.1%)
12-25 10:00: O=$121.95 H=$121.95 L=$121.19 C=$121.37 (-0.5%)
12-25 11:00: O=$121.46 H=$121.66 L=$121.26 C=$121.48 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 33.8
RSI(14): 41.5
EMA(20): $122.13
EMA(50): $122.56
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.68
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.18
50h Change: -0.03%
50h Range: $11.90 - $12.31
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 18: $11.87→$11.41 (-3.8%)
Dec 19: $11.45→$12.24 (+6.8%)
Dec 20: $12.25→$12.20 (-0.5%)
Dec 21: $12.14→$12.09 (-0.4%)
Dec 22: $12.19→$12.37 (+1.5%)
Dec 23: $12.42→$12.27 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $12.17→$12.10 (-0.6%)
Dec 25: $12.10→$12.18 (+0.7%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-25 04:00: O=$12.22 H=$12.22 L=$12.22 C=$12.22 (+0.0%)
12-25 05:00: O=$12.22 H=$12.22 L=$12.22 C=$12.22 (+0.0%)
12-25 06:00: O=$12.22 H=$12.22 L=$12.22 C=$12.22 (+0.0%)
12-25 07:00: O=$12.24 H=$12.24 L=$12.24 C=$12.24 (+0.0%)
12-25 08:00: O=$12.28 H=$12.28 L=$12.24 C=$12.24 (-0.3%)
12-25 09:00: O=$12.25 H=$12.27 L=$12.24 C=$12.27 (+0.2%)
12-25 10:00: O=$12.14 H=$12.15 L=$12.13 C=$12.13 (-0.1%)
12-25 11:00: O=$12.16 H=$12.19 L=$12.16 C=$12.18 (+0.2%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 51.4
RSI(14): 54.8
EMA(20): $12.15
EMA(50): $12.10
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $0.04
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
SOL (SHORT): 0.78 @ $122.90 (Current: $121.48, P&L: +1.16%)
TP: $119.50 (+2.8%)
SL: $125.50 (-2.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $119.50 (~2.7% move, near Dec 18 low of $119.74). SL at $125.50 (~2.2% risk, above EMA50 and recent consolidation). Exit early if: 1) Strong reversal above EMA20 with volume, 2) BTC breaks above $89,000 decisively, 3) RSI divergence forms. R:R = 1.23:1. Conservative sizing due to recent whipsaw history.
BTC (SHORT): 0.00134 @ $87,877.00 (Current: $88,217.00, P&L: -0.39%)
TP: $86,500.00 (+1.6%)
SL: $89,300.00 (-1.6%)
Exit Plan: TP at $86,500 (below Dec 17 low of $85,874, ~1.7% move). SL at $89,300 (above recent rejection high of $89,158 + buffer, ~1.5% risk). Exit early if: 1) Price reclaims and holds above EMA20 with volume, 2) RSI divergence forms showing momentum shift, 3) Strong bounce above $89,000 with conviction. R:R = 1.13:1 but high probability in bear structure.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
SOL SHORT: 12-19 00:00 → 12-19 05:05 (5.1h)
Entry: $119.59, Exit: $122.80 P&L: -2.68% ($-2.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 06:00 (12.0h)
Entry: $2,789.30, Exit: $2,906.90 P&L: -4.22% ($-5.20) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 07:20 (13.3h)
Entry: $11.63, Exit: $12.08 P&L: -3.86% ($-6.43) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 06:00 → 12-19 09:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $122.63, Exit: $125.61 P&L: -2.43% ($-3.01) [SL_HIT]
AVAX LONG: 12-19 12:00 → 12-23 12:00 (96.0h)
Entry: $11.99, Exit: $12.27 P&L: +2.33% ($+2.17) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-23 06:00 → 12-23 15:05 (9.1h)
Entry: $124.67, Exit: $122.52 P&L: +1.72% ($+1.63) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-23 18:00 → 12-23 20:50 (2.8h)
Entry: $2,912.10, Exit: $2,977.80 P&L: -2.26% ($-2.69) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-24 00:00 → 12-24 14:50 (14.8h)
Entry: $12.17, Exit: $11.91 P&L: +2.13% ($+1.48) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-24 12:00 → 12-24 18:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $3,031.80, Exit: $3,021.10 P&L: +0.35% ($+0.30) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-24 18:00 → 12-25 00:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $11.91, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.56% ($-1.12) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SHORT position currently -0.39% P&L but thesis remains valid. Price action shows choppy consolidation between $87.7k-$89.2k with repeated rejections at $89k. EMA structure still bullish (price above 20/50) but momentum weakening - RSI neutral at 50-53. Recent 8h candles show indecision with wicks on both sides. Position has proper 1.6% risk with TP at $86.5k targeting Dec 17 lows. Trust the SL at $89.3k - no need to manually close in this chop. Christmas low volume makes moves unreliable. Let position work.
Confidence: 65%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: No position. Market showing similar consolidation to BTC - trading in $2,950-$3,050 range. Price slightly below EMA20 ($2,992) but above EMA50 ($2,975), showing weak bullish structure. RSI at 43-48 (neutral-weak). Recent candles show high wicks indicating rejection at resistance and support - classic holiday chop. Not enough conviction to enter either direction. Would need: 1) Clear break above $3,050 with volume for long, OR 2) Break below $2,950 with EMA20 cross for short. Current structure too messy with 45.8% margin already deployed.
Confidence: 50%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SHORT position +1.16% P&L and thesis playing out well. SOL showing clear weakness: -2.05% over 50h, price below both EMAs (bearish structure), RSI at 33.8/41.5 (oversold but in downtrend = continuation signal per rules). Recent 8h shows steady grind lower from $122.5 to $121.48 with lower highs. TP at $119.50 targets Dec 18 lows - realistic 2.8% gain from entry. Position properly sized with 2.1% risk at SL $125.50. No reason to exit early - downtrend intact, no reversal signals. Trust the TP/SL automation.
Confidence: 70%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: No position. AVAX showing extremely tight consolidation around $12.15-$12.25 with minimal volatility (ATR only $0.04). Recent 8h candles are nearly flat with $0.01-0.02 ranges - classic holiday low-volume drift. Price slightly above both EMAs (bullish) but RSI neutral at 51/55. This tight coiling could precede a breakout, but direction unclear. With 45.8% margin used, need high-conviction setups only. Would consider: 1) LONG on break above $12.35 with volume, OR 2) SHORT on break below $12.00. Current position: wait for clarity.
Confidence: 45%
💾 Database saved: run_id=191
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