Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-26 00:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-25 18:00:08
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $159.08
Margin Used: $33.87 (21.3%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-26 00:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-25 18:00:08 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-23 22:00 → 2025-12-26 00:00
BTC:
Current Price: $87,657.00
50h Change: -0.29%
50h Range: $86,618.00 - $89,881.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 19: $85,064.00→$88,372.00 (+3.9%)
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,661.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 21: $88,664.00→$88,853.00 (+0.2%)
Dec 22: $88,853.00→$88,759.00 (-0.1%)
Dec 23: $88,690.00→$87,633.00 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $87,699.00→$88,000.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 25: $88,159.00→$87,657.00 (-0.6%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-25 16:00: O=$88,776.00 H=$88,776.00 L=$88,376.00 C=$88,400.00 (-0.4%)
12-25 17:00: O=$88,405.00 H=$88,536.00 L=$88,300.00 C=$88,456.00 (+0.1%)
12-25 18:00: O=$88,388.00 H=$88,626.00 L=$88,388.00 C=$88,582.00 (+0.2%)
12-25 19:00: O=$88,533.00 H=$88,812.00 L=$88,379.00 C=$88,460.00 (-0.1%)
12-25 20:00: O=$88,624.00 H=$88,658.00 L=$88,000.00 C=$88,231.00 (-0.4%)
12-25 21:00: O=$88,208.00 H=$88,402.00 L=$88,194.00 C=$88,360.00 (+0.2%)
12-25 22:00: O=$88,337.00 H=$88,360.00 L=$88,000.00 C=$88,016.00 (-0.4%)
12-25 23:00: O=$88,137.00 H=$88,214.00 L=$87,379.00 C=$87,657.00 (-0.5%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 30.0
RSI(14): 41.9
EMA(20): $88,236.61
EMA(50): $87,903.94
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $682.95
ETH:
Current Price: $2,969.60
50h Change: -0.12%
50h Range: $2,913.20 - $3,082.70
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 19: $2,812.90→$2,982.80 (+6.0%)
Dec 20: $3,010.20→$2,978.50 (-1.1%)
Dec 21: $2,978.80→$3,001.30 (+0.8%)
Dec 22: $3,002.30→$3,005.70 (+0.1%)
Dec 23: $3,007.10→$2,966.10 (-1.4%)
Dec 24: $2,964.50→$2,988.20 (+0.8%)
Dec 25: $2,995.50→$2,969.60 (-0.9%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-25 16:00: O=$2,993.10 H=$3,082.70 L=$2,952.00 C=$2,983.00 (-0.3%)
12-25 17:00: O=$2,983.10 H=$3,063.50 L=$2,953.10 C=$3,008.30 (+0.8%)
12-25 18:00: O=$3,013.80 H=$3,073.10 L=$2,969.90 C=$3,011.80 (-0.1%)
12-25 19:00: O=$3,011.80 H=$3,058.00 L=$3,000.00 C=$3,047.40 (+1.2%)
12-25 20:00: O=$3,034.80 H=$3,064.50 L=$2,954.80 C=$2,975.80 (-1.9%)
12-25 21:00: O=$2,978.80 H=$3,059.50 L=$2,961.20 C=$2,976.70 (-0.1%)
12-25 22:00: O=$2,980.10 H=$3,051.10 L=$2,944.60 C=$2,991.20 (+0.4%)
12-25 23:00: O=$2,995.10 H=$3,029.60 L=$2,913.20 C=$2,969.60 (-0.9%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 41.4
RSI(14): 46.6
EMA(20): $2,995.10
EMA(50): $2,987.30
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $94.81
SOL:
Current Price: $119.74
50h Change: -3.48%
50h Range: $119.10 - $124.30
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 19: $119.63→$126.41 (+5.7%)
Dec 20: $126.34→$125.96 (-0.3%)
Dec 21: $125.91→$125.90 (-0.0%)
Dec 22: $125.93→$125.58 (-0.3%)
Dec 23: $125.65→$123.72 (-1.5%)
Dec 24: $123.89→$122.24 (-1.3%)
Dec 25: $122.33→$119.74 (-2.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-25 16:00: O=$123.61 H=$124.26 L=$123.13 C=$123.38 (-0.2%)
12-25 17:00: O=$123.31 H=$123.43 L=$122.62 C=$122.92 (-0.3%)
12-25 18:00: O=$122.98 H=$123.90 L=$122.98 C=$123.77 (+0.6%)
12-25 19:00: O=$123.89 H=$123.89 L=$123.13 C=$123.19 (-0.6%)
12-25 20:00: O=$123.25 H=$123.29 L=$122.71 C=$123.07 (-0.1%)
12-25 21:00: O=$123.10 H=$123.35 L=$122.88 C=$123.01 (-0.1%)
12-25 22:00: O=$123.02 H=$123.22 L=$121.30 C=$121.65 (-1.1%)
12-25 23:00: O=$121.44 H=$121.80 L=$119.10 C=$119.74 (-1.4%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 21.0
RSI(14): 31.6
EMA(20): $122.26
EMA(50): $122.25
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $0.96
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.08
50h Change: -1.55%
50h Range: $11.90 - $12.49
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 19: $11.45→$12.24 (+6.8%)
Dec 20: $12.25→$12.20 (-0.5%)
Dec 21: $12.14→$12.09 (-0.4%)
Dec 22: $12.19→$12.37 (+1.5%)
Dec 23: $12.42→$12.27 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $12.17→$12.10 (-0.6%)
Dec 25: $12.10→$12.08 (-0.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-25 16:00: O=$12.36 H=$12.41 L=$12.36 C=$12.39 (+0.3%)
12-25 17:00: O=$12.39 H=$12.39 L=$12.39 C=$12.39 (+0.0%)
12-25 18:00: O=$12.41 H=$12.48 L=$12.41 C=$12.48 (+0.6%)
12-25 19:00: O=$12.45 H=$12.47 L=$12.43 C=$12.47 (+0.1%)
12-25 20:00: O=$12.47 H=$12.49 L=$12.44 C=$12.44 (-0.2%)
12-25 21:00: O=$12.42 H=$12.43 L=$12.42 C=$12.43 (+0.1%)
12-25 22:00: O=$12.43 H=$12.43 L=$12.43 C=$12.43 (+0.0%)
12-25 23:00: O=$12.13 H=$12.16 L=$12.05 C=$12.08 (-0.4%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 26.0
RSI(14): 38.4
EMA(20): $12.29
EMA(50): $12.16
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $0.07
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
SOL (SHORT): 0.78 @ $122.90 (Current: $119.74, P&L: +2.57%)
TP: $119.50 (+2.8%)
SL: $125.50 (-2.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $119.50 (~2.7% move, near Dec 18 low of $119.74). SL at $125.50 (~2.2% risk, above EMA50 and recent consolidation). Exit early if: 1) Strong reversal above EMA20 with volume, 2) BTC breaks above $89,000 decisively, 3) RSI divergence forms. R:R = 1.23:1. Conservative sizing due to recent whipsaw history.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
ETH SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 06:00 (12.0h)
Entry: $2,789.30, Exit: $2,906.90 P&L: -4.22% ($-5.20) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-18 18:00 → 12-19 07:20 (13.3h)
Entry: $11.63, Exit: $12.08 P&L: -3.86% ($-6.43) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 12-19 06:00 → 12-19 09:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $122.63, Exit: $125.61 P&L: -2.43% ($-3.01) [SL_HIT]
AVAX LONG: 12-19 12:00 → 12-23 12:00 (96.0h)
Entry: $11.99, Exit: $12.27 P&L: +2.33% ($+2.17) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-23 06:00 → 12-23 15:05 (9.1h)
Entry: $124.67, Exit: $122.52 P&L: +1.72% ($+1.63) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-23 18:00 → 12-23 20:50 (2.8h)
Entry: $2,912.10, Exit: $2,977.80 P&L: -2.26% ($-2.69) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-24 00:00 → 12-24 14:50 (14.8h)
Entry: $12.17, Exit: $11.91 P&L: +2.13% ($+1.48) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-24 12:00 → 12-24 18:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $3,031.80, Exit: $3,021.10 P&L: +0.35% ($+0.30) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-24 18:00 → 12-25 00:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $11.91, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.56% ($-1.12) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
BTC SHORT: 12-23 06:00 → 12-25 18:00 (60.0h)
Entry: $87,877.00, Exit: $88,464.00 P&L: -0.67% ($-0.79) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
ETH:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: ETH showing clear weakness: last candle dropped -0.9% to $2,969.60, briefly touching $2,913.20 (50h low). Price now below EMA20 ($2,995) while maintaining bullish EMA structure creates vulnerable setup. RSI(7) at 41.4 shows momentum fading. Recent 8h shows multiple failed attempts to hold $3k+ with increasing volatility (ATR $94.81). Holiday thin liquidity amplifying moves. Target retest of $2,900 support zone.
Confidence: 65%
Allocation: 25.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $2,900 (2.3% move, psychological support and Dec 23 low area). SL at $3,050 (2.7% risk above recent highs and EMA20). Exit early if: 1) BTC breaks decisively above $89k pulling alts up, 2) Strong reversal candle with volume above $3,020, 3) RSI(7) crosses back above 50. R:R = 0.86:1 but high probability setup given recent rejection pattern.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $159.08
Allocation: 25.0% ($39.77 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $2,969.60
Size: 0.0402 coins
Notional value: $119.38
📝 Executing SHORT 0.0402 ETH @ 3x with TP: $2,900, SL: $3,050
✅ Market order filled @ $2,950.49
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45602756669)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45602757647)
AVAX:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: AVAX weakening with RSI(7) at 26.0 (oversold) and RSI(14) at 38.4. Price at $12.08 below EMA20 ($12.29) despite bullish EMA structure. Recent price action shows failed bounce attempt - last candle dropped -0.4% after testing $12.43-$12.48 resistance. Following SOL's weakness (high correlation). ATR at $0.07 suggests tight stop possible. Target breakdown to $11.80-$11.90 zone (Dec 23-24 lows).
Confidence: 60%
Allocation: 20.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $11.85 (1.9% move, near 50h low of $11.90 and recent support cluster). SL at $12.35 (2.2% risk above EMA20 and recent consolidation resistance). Exit early if: 1) SOL reverses strongly above $122, 2) Volume spike with bullish engulfing above $12.20, 3) BTC rallies above $89k. R:R = 0.86:1. Conservative sizing given oversold RSI and existing 21.3% margin usage.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $159.08
Allocation: 20.0% ($31.82 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $12.08
Size: 7.9000 coins
Notional value: $95.44
📝 Executing SHORT 7.9 AVAX @ 3x with TP: $12, SL: $12
✅ Market order filled @ $12.07
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45602761510)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45602762382)
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC showing short-term weakness with RSI(7) at 30 (oversold) and recent -0.5% candle breaking below $88k. However, EMA trend remains bullish (price above EMA50, EMA20>EMA50) and we're only -0.29% over 50h. Price is testing support around $87.6k. With 21.3% margin already deployed, waiting for clearer direction. Recent failed short (closed at -0.67%) shows this range is choppy. Need confirmation of either breakdown below $87k or reversal above $88.5k before entry.
Confidence: 50%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Existing SHORT position at $122.90 currently +2.57% P&L, approaching TP at $119.50. Last candle showed -1.4% drop to $119.74, nearly touching our TP level. RSI(7) extremely oversold at 21.0, RSI(14) at 31.6 - bounce risk is elevated. Price now $0.24 above TP. Trust the TP order to execute automatically. Manual close would lock in slightly less profit and incur unnecessary fees. Position thesis intact: bearish momentum continuing as expected.
Confidence: 75%
💾 Database saved: run_id=193
2 order(s) executed
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