Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-27 00:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-26 18:00:09
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $143.18
Margin Used: $78.66 (54.9%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-27 00:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-26 18:00:09 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-24 22:00 → 2025-12-27 00:00
BTC:
Current Price: $87,544.00
50h Change: -0.36%
50h Range: $86,829.00 - $89,881.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,661.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 21: $88,664.00→$88,853.00 (+0.2%)
Dec 22: $88,853.00→$88,759.00 (-0.1%)
Dec 23: $88,690.00→$87,633.00 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $87,699.00→$88,000.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 25: $88,159.00→$87,657.00 (-0.6%)
Dec 26: $87,685.00→$87,573.00 (-0.1%)
Dec 27: $87,545.00→$87,544.00 (-0.0%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-26 17:00: O=$87,043.00 H=$87,581.00 L=$86,944.00 C=$87,482.00 (+0.5%)
12-26 18:00: O=$87,478.00 H=$87,496.00 L=$87,314.00 C=$87,419.00 (-0.1%)
12-26 19:00: O=$87,412.00 H=$87,688.00 L=$87,376.00 C=$87,635.00 (+0.3%)
12-26 20:00: O=$87,649.00 H=$88,294.00 L=$87,585.00 C=$87,780.00 (+0.1%)
12-26 21:00: O=$87,783.00 H=$87,871.00 L=$87,644.00 C=$87,672.00 (-0.1%)
12-26 22:00: O=$87,656.00 H=$87,787.00 L=$87,500.00 C=$87,721.00 (+0.1%)
12-26 23:00: O=$87,697.00 H=$87,730.00 L=$87,519.00 C=$87,573.00 (-0.1%)
12-27 00:00: O=$87,545.00 H=$87,545.00 L=$87,544.00 C=$87,544.00 (-0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 39.4
RSI(14): 41.6
EMA(20): $87,951.10
EMA(50): $88,285.51
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $510.14
ETH:
Current Price: $2,955.70
50h Change: -3.23%
50h Range: $2,911.90 - $3,106.80
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 20: $3,010.20→$2,978.50 (-1.1%)
Dec 21: $2,978.80→$3,001.30 (+0.8%)
Dec 22: $3,002.30→$3,005.70 (+0.1%)
Dec 23: $3,007.10→$2,966.10 (-1.4%)
Dec 24: $2,964.50→$2,988.20 (+0.8%)
Dec 25: $2,995.50→$2,969.60 (-0.9%)
Dec 26: $2,950.90→$2,955.70 (+0.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-26 16:00: O=$2,958.30 H=$2,972.00 L=$2,916.00 C=$2,960.10 (+0.1%)
12-26 17:00: O=$2,971.50 H=$2,996.70 L=$2,937.30 C=$2,979.80 (+0.3%)
12-26 18:00: O=$2,973.40 H=$2,982.50 L=$2,972.80 C=$2,974.30 (+0.0%)
12-26 19:00: O=$2,978.00 H=$2,997.30 L=$2,926.70 C=$2,996.90 (+0.6%)
12-26 20:00: O=$2,971.20 H=$2,979.80 L=$2,945.30 C=$2,952.30 (-0.6%)
12-26 21:00: O=$2,956.00 H=$2,996.90 L=$2,947.70 C=$2,960.90 (+0.2%)
12-26 22:00: O=$2,956.20 H=$2,965.00 L=$2,939.70 C=$2,964.70 (+0.3%)
12-26 23:00: O=$2,964.70 H=$2,965.00 L=$2,941.60 C=$2,955.70 (-0.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 39.7
RSI(14): 44.8
EMA(20): $2,988.86
EMA(50): $2,998.09
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $67.02
SOL:
Current Price: $121.99
50h Change: -0.61%
50h Range: $119.10 - $124.89
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 20: $126.34→$125.96 (-0.3%)
Dec 21: $125.91→$125.90 (-0.0%)
Dec 22: $125.93→$125.58 (-0.3%)
Dec 23: $125.65→$123.72 (-1.5%)
Dec 24: $123.89→$122.24 (-1.3%)
Dec 25: $122.33→$119.74 (-2.1%)
Dec 26: $119.77→$121.99 (+1.9%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-26 16:00: O=$121.54 H=$122.07 L=$120.99 C=$121.13 (-0.3%)
12-26 17:00: O=$121.17 H=$122.16 L=$121.17 C=$121.62 (+0.4%)
12-26 18:00: O=$121.73 H=$122.01 L=$121.63 C=$121.87 (+0.1%)
12-26 19:00: O=$121.86 H=$122.18 L=$121.68 C=$121.95 (+0.1%)
12-26 20:00: O=$121.93 H=$122.42 L=$121.63 C=$122.21 (+0.2%)
12-26 21:00: O=$122.24 H=$122.34 L=$121.88 C=$121.90 (-0.3%)
12-26 22:00: O=$121.81 H=$122.21 L=$121.62 C=$122.21 (+0.3%)
12-26 23:00: O=$122.22 H=$122.26 L=$121.93 C=$121.99 (-0.2%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 45.9
RSI(14): 45.2
EMA(20): $122.28
EMA(50): $122.36
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.91
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.37
50h Change: +2.55%
50h Range: $12.05 - $12.53
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 20: $12.25→$12.20 (-0.5%)
Dec 21: $12.14→$12.09 (-0.4%)
Dec 22: $12.19→$12.37 (+1.5%)
Dec 23: $12.42→$12.27 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $12.17→$12.10 (-0.6%)
Dec 25: $12.10→$12.08 (-0.1%)
Dec 26: $12.07→$12.37 (+2.5%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-26 13:00: O=$12.45 H=$12.48 L=$12.45 C=$12.48 (+0.2%)
12-26 14:00: O=$12.41 H=$12.41 L=$12.40 C=$12.40 (-0.1%)
12-26 15:00: O=$12.17 H=$12.22 L=$12.15 C=$12.22 (+0.4%)
12-26 16:00: O=$12.27 H=$12.28 L=$12.27 C=$12.28 (+0.0%)
12-26 17:00: O=$12.28 H=$12.28 L=$12.28 C=$12.28 (+0.0%)
12-26 18:00: O=$12.28 H=$12.28 L=$12.28 C=$12.28 (+0.0%)
12-26 19:00: O=$12.28 H=$12.28 L=$12.28 C=$12.28 (+0.0%)
12-26 20:00: O=$12.37 H=$12.37 L=$12.37 C=$12.37 (+0.0%)
⚠️ WARNING: Data is 4.0h old - asset may be inactive
Indicators:
RSI(7): 52.8
RSI(14): 50.5
EMA(20): $12.36
ATR(14): $0.06
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
SOL (SHORT): 0.89 @ $121.73 (Current: $121.99, P&L: -0.21%)
TP: $118.50 (+2.7%)
SL: $123.80 (-1.7%)
Exit Plan: TP at $118.50 targets recent lows (~2.7% move, 2.5:1 R/R). SL above rejection high at $123.80 (~1.7% risk = 1.6x ATR). Monitor correlation with BTC - if BTC breaks $86,800, SOL likely accelerates lower. Exit if price reclaims $122.40 EMA level with strong volume.
BTC (SHORT): 0.00197 @ $87,476.10 (Current: $87,544.00, P&L: -0.08%)
TP: $85,500.00 (+2.3%)
SL: $89,200.00 (-2.0%)
Exit Plan: TP at $85,500 targets next support level (~2.3% move, 2.8:1 R/R). SL above recent rejection high at $89,200 (~1.96% risk = 1.5x ATR). Will monitor for break below $86,800 low to confirm continuation. Exit early if price reclaims $88,300 EMA cluster with volume.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
ETH SHORT: 12-23 18:00 → 12-23 20:50 (2.8h)
Entry: $2,912.10, Exit: $2,977.80 P&L: -2.26% ($-2.69) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-24 00:00 → 12-24 14:50 (14.8h)
Entry: $12.17, Exit: $11.91 P&L: +2.13% ($+1.48) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-24 12:00 → 12-24 18:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $3,031.80, Exit: $3,021.10 P&L: +0.35% ($+0.30) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-24 18:00 → 12-25 00:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $11.91, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.56% ($-1.12) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
BTC SHORT: 12-23 06:00 → 12-25 18:00 (60.0h)
Entry: $87,877.00, Exit: $88,464.00 P&L: -0.67% ($-0.79) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-23 18:00 → 12-26 00:20 (54.3h)
Entry: $122.90, Exit: $119.51 P&L: +2.76% ($+2.64) [TP_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-26 00:00 → 12-26 02:05 (2.1h)
Entry: $12.07, Exit: $12.36 P&L: -2.44% ($-2.32) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-26 00:00 → 12-26 07:35 (7.6h)
Entry: $2,950.49, Exit: $3,097.64 P&L: -4.99% ($-5.92) [SL_HIT]
SOL LONG: 12-26 12:00 → 12-26 15:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $123.69, Exit: $120.78 P&L: -2.35% ($-2.12) [SL_HIT]
ETH LONG: 12-26 12:00 → 12-26 15:20 (3.3h)
Entry: $3,048.90, Exit: $2,919.30 P&L: -4.25% ($-4.82) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
ETH:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: Strong bearish setup with price below both EMAs ($2,955 vs EMA20 $2,989, EMA50 $2,998). Down -3.23% over 50h showing persistent weakness. RSI(14) at 44.8 in neutral zone allows for downside. Recent candles show failed rally attempt - pumped to $2,997 at 19:00 then rejected hard back to $2,955. Pattern of lower highs visible. ETH historically lags BTC in downtrends. With BTC short working and margin at 54.9%, adding correlated ETH short creates portfolio synergy. Recent stop-outs were from counter-trend longs during bounce - now trading WITH the trend.
Confidence: 70%
Allocation: 20.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $2,850 targets -3.6% move (2:1 R/R, aligns with Dec 23 low zone). SL at $3,050 above EMAs and recent rejection high (+3.2% = 1.4x ATR). Exit early if BTC reclaims $88,300+ with volume or if ETH breaks above $3,000 with strong momentum. Monitor correlation - if BTC breaks $86,800, ETH likely accelerates to $2,900 zone.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $143.18
Allocation: 20.0% ($28.64 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $2,955.70
Size: 0.0291 coins
Notional value: $86.01
📝 Executing SHORT 0.0291 ETH @ 3x with TP: $2,850, SL: $3,050
✅ Market order filled @ $2,955.70
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45652663292)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45652663956)
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Current short position showing minimal drawdown (-0.08%) and thesis remains intact. Price below both EMAs ($87,544 vs EMA20 $87,951, EMA50 $88,285) confirming bearish structure. RSI(14) at 41.6 shows weakness without being oversold. Recent 8h candles show consolidation in tight range $87,500-$87,780 after rejection from $88,294. TP at $85,500 remains viable target (recent low $86,829 provides path). Trust the TP/SL system - no reason to manually exit a working thesis.
Confidence: 65%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Current short position minimal drawdown (-0.21%) with solid thesis. Price below EMAs ($121.99 vs EMA20 $122.28, EMA50 $122.36) maintaining bearish structure. Recent bounce from $119.74 low showing weak follow-through - 8h candles consolidating tightly $121.60-$122.40 range. RSI(14) at 45.2 neutral, not overbought. TP at $118.50 targets prior low zone with 2.5:1 R/R. Position working as planned, no need to interfere with automatic exits.
Confidence: 60%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Data quality concern - 4 hour stale data with suspicious flat candles (multiple 0.0% changes). Current price $12.37 showing +2.55% 50h gain, making it relative strength outlier vs BTC/ETH/SOL weakness. RSI(14) at 50.5 neutral, price essentially at EMA20 $12.36. Without reliable recent data, cannot make informed decision. Previous AVAX trades resulted in 3 stop-outs in recent sessions, showing difficulty reading this asset. With margin already at 54.9% and two working short positions, prudent to wait for better data quality and clearer setup.
Confidence: 50%
💾 Database saved: run_id=197
1 order(s) executed
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