Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-27 12:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-27 06:00:08
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $141.40
Margin Used: $77.92 (55.1%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-27 12:00:07 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-27 06:00:08 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-25 10:00 → 2025-12-27 12:00
BTC:
Current Price: $87,653.00
50h Change: -0.83%
50h Range: $86,829.00 - $89,766.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,661.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 21: $88,664.00→$88,853.00 (+0.2%)
Dec 22: $88,853.00→$88,759.00 (-0.1%)
Dec 23: $88,690.00→$87,633.00 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $87,699.00→$88,000.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 25: $88,159.00→$87,657.00 (-0.6%)
Dec 26: $87,685.00→$87,573.00 (-0.1%)
Dec 27: $87,545.00→$87,653.00 (+0.1%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-27 05:00: O=$87,652.00 H=$87,738.00 L=$87,610.00 C=$87,706.00 (+0.1%)
12-27 06:00: O=$87,686.00 H=$87,763.00 L=$87,605.00 C=$87,666.00 (-0.0%)
12-27 07:00: O=$87,666.00 H=$87,908.00 L=$87,666.00 C=$87,753.00 (+0.1%)
12-27 08:00: O=$87,753.00 H=$87,825.00 L=$87,722.00 C=$87,729.00 (-0.0%)
12-27 09:00: O=$87,726.00 H=$87,833.00 L=$87,717.00 C=$87,799.00 (+0.1%)
12-27 10:00: O=$87,776.00 H=$87,835.00 L=$87,549.00 C=$87,670.00 (-0.1%)
12-27 11:00: O=$87,632.00 H=$87,743.00 L=$87,621.00 C=$87,655.00 (+0.0%)
12-27 12:00: O=$87,660.00 H=$87,660.00 L=$87,653.00 C=$87,653.00 (-0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 43.9
RSI(14): 42.4
EMA(20): $87,765.81
EMA(50): $88,137.60
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $300.06
ETH:
Current Price: $2,989.00
50h Change: -0.40%
50h Range: $2,911.90 - $3,106.80
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 20: $3,010.20→$2,978.50 (-1.1%)
Dec 21: $2,978.80→$3,001.30 (+0.8%)
Dec 22: $3,002.30→$3,005.70 (+0.1%)
Dec 23: $3,007.10→$2,966.10 (-1.4%)
Dec 24: $2,964.50→$2,988.20 (+0.8%)
Dec 25: $2,995.50→$2,969.60 (-0.9%)
Dec 26: $2,950.90→$2,955.70 (+0.2%)
Dec 27: $2,960.50→$2,989.00 (+1.0%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-27 04:00: O=$3,011.90 H=$3,014.20 L=$2,997.30 C=$3,000.90 (-0.4%)
12-27 05:00: O=$2,999.00 H=$3,006.40 L=$2,993.90 C=$3,001.70 (+0.1%)
12-27 06:00: O=$3,002.70 H=$3,008.90 L=$2,995.50 C=$3,008.80 (+0.2%)
12-27 07:00: O=$3,008.80 H=$3,010.00 L=$3,001.80 C=$3,005.10 (-0.1%)
12-27 08:00: O=$3,007.60 H=$3,017.80 L=$2,962.10 C=$2,991.20 (-0.5%)
12-27 09:00: O=$2,997.00 H=$2,997.00 L=$2,983.00 C=$2,985.00 (-0.4%)
12-27 10:00: O=$2,985.70 H=$2,993.90 L=$2,983.00 C=$2,987.10 (+0.0%)
12-27 11:00: O=$2,989.70 H=$3,003.00 L=$2,986.50 C=$2,989.00 (-0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 46.3
RSI(14): 47.3
EMA(20): $2,994.02
EMA(50): $2,997.89
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $38.75
SOL:
Current Price: $122.76
50h Change: +0.66%
50h Range: $119.10 - $124.89
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 20: $126.34→$125.96 (-0.3%)
Dec 21: $125.91→$125.90 (-0.0%)
Dec 22: $125.93→$125.58 (-0.3%)
Dec 23: $125.65→$123.72 (-1.5%)
Dec 24: $123.89→$122.24 (-1.3%)
Dec 25: $122.33→$119.74 (-2.1%)
Dec 26: $119.77→$121.99 (+1.9%)
Dec 27: $122.14→$122.76 (+0.5%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-27 04:00: O=$123.51 H=$123.51 L=$122.71 C=$122.79 (-0.6%)
12-27 05:00: O=$122.84 H=$123.09 L=$122.79 C=$122.94 (+0.1%)
12-27 06:00: O=$122.91 H=$122.91 L=$122.60 C=$122.77 (-0.1%)
12-27 07:00: O=$122.75 H=$123.16 L=$122.69 C=$122.90 (+0.1%)
12-27 08:00: O=$123.09 H=$123.23 L=$122.57 C=$122.57 (-0.4%)
12-27 09:00: O=$122.68 H=$122.99 L=$122.68 C=$122.78 (+0.1%)
12-27 10:00: O=$122.79 H=$122.98 L=$122.40 C=$122.70 (-0.1%)
12-27 11:00: O=$122.69 H=$122.92 L=$122.68 C=$122.76 (+0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 54.2
RSI(14): 53.2
EMA(20): $122.57
EMA(50): $122.43
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $0.68
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.46
50h Change: +2.65%
50h Range: $12.05 - $12.53
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 20: $12.25→$12.20 (-0.5%)
Dec 21: $12.14→$12.09 (-0.4%)
Dec 22: $12.19→$12.37 (+1.5%)
Dec 23: $12.42→$12.27 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $12.17→$12.10 (-0.6%)
Dec 25: $12.10→$12.08 (-0.1%)
Dec 26: $12.07→$12.37 (+2.5%)
Dec 27: $12.35→$12.46 (+0.9%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-27 04:00: O=$12.35 H=$12.35 L=$12.35 C=$12.35 (+0.0%)
12-27 05:00: O=$12.39 H=$12.43 L=$12.39 C=$12.43 (+0.3%)
12-27 06:00: O=$12.43 H=$12.43 L=$12.43 C=$12.43 (+0.0%)
12-27 07:00: O=$12.43 H=$12.43 L=$12.43 C=$12.43 (+0.0%)
12-27 08:00: O=$12.48 H=$12.48 L=$12.46 C=$12.46 (-0.1%)
12-27 09:00: O=$12.45 H=$12.45 L=$12.44 C=$12.44 (-0.1%)
12-27 10:00: O=$12.43 H=$12.44 L=$12.42 C=$12.42 (-0.1%)
12-27 11:00: O=$12.46 H=$12.46 L=$12.46 C=$12.46 (-0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 67.9
RSI(14): 62.1
EMA(20): $12.40
EMA(50): $12.37
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $0.03
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
SOL (SHORT): 0.89 @ $121.73 (Current: $122.76, P&L: -0.85%)
TP: $118.50 (+2.7%)
SL: $123.80 (-1.7%)
Exit Plan: TP at $118.50 targets recent lows (~2.7% move, 2.5:1 R/R). SL above rejection high at $123.80 (~1.7% risk = 1.6x ATR). Monitor correlation with BTC - if BTC breaks $86,800, SOL likely accelerates lower. Exit if price reclaims $122.40 EMA level with strong volume.
BTC (SHORT): 0.00197 @ $87,476.10 (Current: $87,653.00, P&L: -0.20%)
TP: $85,500.00 (+2.3%)
SL: $89,200.00 (-2.0%)
Exit Plan: TP at $85,500 targets next support level (~2.3% move, 2.8:1 R/R). SL above recent rejection high at $89,200 (~1.96% risk = 1.5x ATR). Will monitor for break below $86,800 low to confirm continuation. Exit early if price reclaims $88,300 EMA cluster with volume.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
AVAX SHORT: 12-24 00:00 → 12-24 14:50 (14.8h)
Entry: $12.17, Exit: $11.91 P&L: +2.13% ($+1.48) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-24 12:00 → 12-24 18:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $3,031.80, Exit: $3,021.10 P&L: +0.35% ($+0.30) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-24 18:00 → 12-25 00:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $11.91, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.56% ($-1.12) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
BTC SHORT: 12-23 06:00 → 12-25 18:00 (60.0h)
Entry: $87,877.00, Exit: $88,464.00 P&L: -0.67% ($-0.79) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-23 18:00 → 12-26 00:20 (54.3h)
Entry: $122.90, Exit: $119.51 P&L: +2.76% ($+2.64) [TP_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-26 00:00 → 12-26 02:05 (2.1h)
Entry: $12.07, Exit: $12.36 P&L: -2.44% ($-2.32) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-26 00:00 → 12-26 07:35 (7.6h)
Entry: $2,950.49, Exit: $3,097.64 P&L: -4.99% ($-5.92) [SL_HIT]
SOL LONG: 12-26 12:00 → 12-26 15:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $123.69, Exit: $120.78 P&L: -2.35% ($-2.12) [SL_HIT]
ETH LONG: 12-26 12:00 → 12-26 15:20 (3.3h)
Entry: $3,048.90, Exit: $2,919.30 P&L: -4.25% ($-4.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-27 00:00 → 12-27 06:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $2,955.70, Exit: $3,002.70 P&L: -1.59% ($-1.37) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
AVAX:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: AVAX showing clear exhaustion after 2-day rally from $12.07→$12.46 (+3.2%). RSI(7) at 67.9 and RSI(14) at 62.1 indicate overbought conditions - highest of all assets. Price has stalled at $12.46 resistance with last 4 hourly candles showing declining momentum and tight range ($12.42-$12.46). Despite bullish EMA alignment, price is only marginally above EMAs ($12.40/$12.37), suggesting limited upside. Recent trade history shows volatility (previous short hit SL at -2.44% on 12/26). However, current setup offers good R/R: short at $12.46, TP at $12.15 (2.5% gain targeting EMA support), SL at $12.60 (1.1% risk = 4.6x ATR for safety). Market correlation: if BTC continues lower, AVAX rally should reverse. Conservative 15% allocation given mixed recent results.
Confidence: 65%
Allocation: 15.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $12.15 targets EMA(20) support and prior consolidation zone for 2.5% gain (2.2:1 R/R). SL at $12.60 above recent high provides 1.1% risk buffer. Exit early if price breaks above $12.55 with volume, indicating continuation of rally rather than exhaustion. Monitor BTC correlation - if BTC stabilizes above $88,000, consider closing to avoid counter-trend risk.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $141.40
Allocation: 15.0% ($21.21 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $12.46
Size: 5.1100 coins
Notional value: $63.67
📝 Executing SHORT 5.11 AVAX @ 3x with TP: $12, SL: $13
✅ Market order filled @ $12.47
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45671811646)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45671812267)
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC SHORT position is performing as expected. Price remains below both EMA(20) $87,765 and EMA(50) $88,137, confirming bearish structure. Recent candles show consolidation in $87,600-$87,800 range with no breakout attempt. RSI at 43.9/42.4 shows continued weakness without oversold bounce yet. Current P&L -0.20% is minimal, and position has only been open 6 hours - trust the TP/SL orders. Breaking below $87,600 would accelerate toward $86,800 support and our $85,500 TP target. No reason to manually close when thesis remains intact and we're positioned correctly for the trend.
Confidence: 75%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: No position currently. ETH showing slight weakness (price below both EMAs at $2,994/$2,998) but recent price action is choppy with multiple failed shorts in recent history (3 losses in last 24 hours including -4.99% and -4.25% SL hits, plus -1.59% manual close). The 08:00 candle showed a $55 range ($3,017-$2,962) indicating high volatility and poor entry conditions. RSI at 46.3/47.3 is neutral - not oversold enough for bounce nor overbought for short. With 55.1% margin already used and ETH's recent whipsaw behavior, prudent to wait for clearer setup. Market needs to either break below $2,960 decisively or reclaim $3,010+ before taking action.
Confidence: 60%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SOL SHORT position slightly underwater at -0.85% but thesis remains valid. Despite bullish EMA alignment (price $122.76 above EMA(20) $122.57), the broader context shows SOL failed to hold gains above $123.50 and is now consolidating. RSI at 54.2/67.9 shows short-term overbought on 7-period. Price is testing resistance at $122.90-$123.00 level repeatedly without breakthrough. Given BTC's bearish structure, SOL's rally appears corrective rather than impulsive. Position has proper risk management with SL at $123.80 (only 0.85% above current). Trust the setup - if BTC breaks lower, SOL should follow to our $118.50 TP target. Only 6 hours into position, no need to exit prematurely.
Confidence: 70%
💾 Database saved: run_id=199
1 order(s) executed
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