Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-27 18:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-27 12:00:07
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $140.37
Margin Used: $98.15 (69.9%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-27 18:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-27 12:00:07 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-25 16:00 → 2025-12-27 18:00
BTC:
Current Price: $87,756.00
50h Change: -1.15%
50h Range: $86,829.00 - $89,766.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 20: $88,372.00→$88,661.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 21: $88,664.00→$88,853.00 (+0.2%)
Dec 22: $88,853.00→$88,759.00 (-0.1%)
Dec 23: $88,690.00→$87,633.00 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $87,699.00→$88,000.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 25: $88,159.00→$87,657.00 (-0.6%)
Dec 26: $87,685.00→$87,573.00 (-0.1%)
Dec 27: $87,545.00→$87,756.00 (+0.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-27 11:00: O=$87,632.00 H=$87,743.00 L=$87,621.00 C=$87,655.00 (+0.0%)
12-27 12:00: O=$87,660.00 H=$87,726.00 L=$87,621.00 C=$87,677.00 (+0.0%)
12-27 13:00: O=$87,680.00 H=$87,683.00 L=$87,562.00 C=$87,680.00 (+0.0%)
12-27 14:00: O=$87,648.00 H=$87,758.00 L=$87,612.00 C=$87,758.00 (+0.1%)
12-27 15:00: O=$87,758.00 H=$89,258.00 L=$87,704.00 C=$87,822.00 (+0.1%)
12-27 16:00: O=$87,788.00 H=$87,902.00 L=$87,556.00 C=$87,703.00 (-0.1%)
12-27 17:00: O=$87,668.00 H=$87,789.00 L=$87,622.00 C=$87,774.00 (+0.1%)
12-27 18:00: O=$87,747.00 H=$87,756.00 L=$87,747.00 C=$87,756.00 (+0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 52.6
RSI(14): 48.8
EMA(20): $87,756.86
EMA(50): $88,054.82
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $327.93
ETH:
Current Price: $2,953.00
50h Change: -1.34%
50h Range: $2,911.90 - $3,106.80
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 20: $3,010.20→$2,978.50 (-1.1%)
Dec 21: $2,978.80→$3,001.30 (+0.8%)
Dec 22: $3,002.30→$3,005.70 (+0.1%)
Dec 23: $3,007.10→$2,966.10 (-1.4%)
Dec 24: $2,964.50→$2,988.20 (+0.8%)
Dec 25: $2,995.50→$2,969.60 (-0.9%)
Dec 26: $2,950.90→$2,955.70 (+0.2%)
Dec 27: $2,960.50→$2,953.00 (-0.3%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-27 10:00: O=$2,985.70 H=$2,993.90 L=$2,983.00 C=$2,987.10 (+0.0%)
12-27 11:00: O=$2,989.70 H=$3,003.00 L=$2,986.50 C=$2,989.00 (-0.0%)
12-27 12:00: O=$2,986.50 H=$2,999.50 L=$2,986.50 C=$2,995.50 (+0.3%)
12-27 13:00: O=$2,995.60 H=$2,998.00 L=$2,988.00 C=$2,989.60 (-0.2%)
12-27 14:00: O=$2,989.10 H=$3,001.90 L=$2,985.60 C=$3,001.30 (+0.4%)
12-27 15:00: O=$2,995.90 H=$3,001.30 L=$2,941.00 C=$2,990.50 (-0.2%)
12-27 16:00: O=$2,981.50 H=$2,995.00 L=$2,925.40 C=$2,949.30 (-1.1%)
12-27 17:00: O=$2,944.40 H=$2,994.20 L=$2,929.20 C=$2,953.00 (+0.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 30.1
RSI(14): 43.0
EMA(20): $2,985.74
EMA(50): $2,994.99
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $40.07
SOL:
Current Price: $123.18
50h Change: -0.35%
50h Range: $119.10 - $124.89
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 20: $126.34→$125.96 (-0.3%)
Dec 21: $125.91→$125.90 (-0.0%)
Dec 22: $125.93→$125.58 (-0.3%)
Dec 23: $125.65→$123.72 (-1.5%)
Dec 24: $123.89→$122.24 (-1.3%)
Dec 25: $122.33→$119.74 (-2.1%)
Dec 26: $119.77→$121.99 (+1.9%)
Dec 27: $122.14→$123.31 (+1.0%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-27 10:00: O=$122.79 H=$122.98 L=$122.40 C=$122.70 (-0.1%)
12-27 11:00: O=$122.69 H=$122.92 L=$122.68 C=$122.76 (+0.1%)
12-27 12:00: O=$122.90 H=$123.02 L=$122.57 C=$122.69 (-0.2%)
12-27 13:00: O=$122.80 H=$123.02 L=$122.63 C=$122.79 (-0.0%)
12-27 14:00: O=$122.77 H=$123.12 L=$122.64 C=$123.06 (+0.2%)
12-27 15:00: O=$123.06 H=$123.43 L=$122.92 C=$123.03 (-0.0%)
12-27 16:00: O=$123.22 H=$123.30 L=$122.67 C=$122.76 (-0.4%)
12-27 17:00: O=$122.80 H=$123.26 L=$122.63 C=$123.18 (+0.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 62.7
RSI(14): 54.0
EMA(20): $122.73
EMA(50): $122.55
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $0.64
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.57
50h Change: +1.63%
50h Range: $12.05 - $12.60
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 20: $12.25→$12.20 (-0.5%)
Dec 21: $12.14→$12.09 (-0.4%)
Dec 22: $12.19→$12.37 (+1.5%)
Dec 23: $12.42→$12.27 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $12.17→$12.10 (-0.6%)
Dec 25: $12.10→$12.08 (-0.1%)
Dec 26: $12.07→$12.37 (+2.5%)
Dec 27: $12.35→$12.57 (+1.8%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-27 10:00: O=$12.43 H=$12.44 L=$12.42 C=$12.42 (-0.1%)
12-27 11:00: O=$12.46 H=$12.46 L=$12.46 C=$12.46 (-0.0%)
12-27 12:00: O=$12.47 H=$12.47 L=$12.46 C=$12.46 (-0.1%)
12-27 13:00: O=$12.47 H=$12.47 L=$12.45 C=$12.45 (-0.2%)
12-27 14:00: O=$12.52 H=$12.52 L=$12.52 C=$12.52 (+0.0%)
12-27 15:00: O=$12.52 H=$12.52 L=$12.52 C=$12.52 (+0.0%)
12-27 16:00: O=$12.59 H=$12.60 L=$12.57 C=$12.57 (-0.2%)
12-27 17:00: O=$12.55 H=$12.57 L=$12.55 C=$12.57 (+0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 82.7
RSI(14): 69.7
EMA(20): $12.45
EMA(50): $12.41
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $0.03
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
SOL (SHORT): 0.89 @ $121.73 (Current: $123.18, P&L: -1.19%)
TP: $118.50 (+2.7%)
SL: $123.80 (-1.7%)
Exit Plan: TP at $118.50 targets recent lows (~2.7% move, 2.5:1 R/R). SL above rejection high at $123.80 (~1.7% risk = 1.6x ATR). Monitor correlation with BTC - if BTC breaks $86,800, SOL likely accelerates lower. Exit if price reclaims $122.40 EMA level with strong volume.
BTC (SHORT): 0.00197 @ $87,476.10 (Current: $87,756.00, P&L: -0.32%)
TP: $85,500.00 (+2.3%)
SL: $89,200.00 (-2.0%)
Exit Plan: TP at $85,500 targets next support level (~2.3% move, 2.8:1 R/R). SL above recent rejection high at $89,200 (~1.96% risk = 1.5x ATR). Will monitor for break below $86,800 low to confirm continuation. Exit early if price reclaims $88,300 EMA cluster with volume.
AVAX (SHORT): 5.11 @ $12.47 (Current: $12.57, P&L: -0.74%)
TP: $12.15 (+2.6%)
SL: $12.60 (-1.0%)
Exit Plan: TP at $12.15 targets EMA(20) support and prior consolidation zone for 2.5% gain (2.2:1 R/R). SL at $12.60 above recent high provides 1.1% risk buffer. Exit early if price breaks above $12.55 with volume, indicating continuation of rally rather than exhaustion. Monitor BTC correlation - if BTC stabilizes above $88,000, consider closing to avoid counter-trend risk.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
AVAX SHORT: 12-24 00:00 → 12-24 14:50 (14.8h)
Entry: $12.17, Exit: $11.91 P&L: +2.13% ($+1.48) [TP_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-24 12:00 → 12-24 18:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $3,031.80, Exit: $3,021.10 P&L: +0.35% ($+0.30) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-24 18:00 → 12-25 00:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $11.91, Exit: $12.10 P&L: -1.56% ($-1.12) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
BTC SHORT: 12-23 06:00 → 12-25 18:00 (60.0h)
Entry: $87,877.00, Exit: $88,464.00 P&L: -0.67% ($-0.79) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-23 18:00 → 12-26 00:20 (54.3h)
Entry: $122.90, Exit: $119.51 P&L: +2.76% ($+2.64) [TP_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-26 00:00 → 12-26 02:05 (2.1h)
Entry: $12.07, Exit: $12.36 P&L: -2.44% ($-2.32) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-26 00:00 → 12-26 07:35 (7.6h)
Entry: $2,950.49, Exit: $3,097.64 P&L: -4.99% ($-5.92) [SL_HIT]
SOL LONG: 12-26 12:00 → 12-26 15:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $123.69, Exit: $120.78 P&L: -2.35% ($-2.12) [SL_HIT]
ETH LONG: 12-26 12:00 → 12-26 15:20 (3.3h)
Entry: $3,048.90, Exit: $2,919.30 P&L: -4.25% ($-4.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-27 00:00 → 12-27 06:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $2,955.70, Exit: $3,002.70 P&L: -1.59% ($-1.37) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
SOL:
→ CLOSE
Reasoning: SOL SHORT position opened 6h ago at $121.73 is now -1.19% and thesis is being invalidated. Price at $123.18 is ABOVE both EMA(20) $122.73 and EMA(50) $122.55, showing bullish structure. RSI(7) at 62.7 and RSI(14) at 54.0 indicate continued strength, not exhaustion. Recent 8h candles show steady grind higher with higher lows. Price already near SL at $123.80 (only 0.5% away). Most critically: SOL is showing RELATIVE STRENGTH vs BTC/ETH - while they're weak, SOL is holding gains. This divergence suggests wrong side of trade. Cut loss now at -1.19% rather than risk full -1.7% SL hit. Fighting the trend here.
Confidence: 75%
Exit Plan: None
📝 Closing position for SOL (market order)
✅ Market close order filled
AVAX:
→ CLOSE
Reasoning: AVAX SHORT position opened 6h ago at $12.47 is -0.74% and showing similar invalidation as SOL. Price at $12.57 is ABOVE both EMA(20) $12.45 and EMA(50) $12.41 confirming bullish trend. RSI(7) at 82.7 is extremely overbought BUT in uptrend this indicates strong momentum, not reversal. Recent 8h candles show steady climb with tight consolidation. Already at SL level of $12.60 (only 0.2% away). Most damning: +1.63% on 50h period shows strong uptrend, and recent history shows 3 failed AVAX shorts (2 SL hits, 1 manual close). Currently fighting a clear uptrend with insufficient edge. Exit now at -0.74% to preserve capital and reduce margin usage from 69.9% to safer levels for better ETH short opportunity.
Confidence: 72%
Exit Plan: None
📝 Closing position for AVAX (market order)
✅ Market close order filled
ETH:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: ETH showing clear weakness: down -1.34% on 50h, broke below EMA(20) $2,986 and EMA(50) $2,995 confirming bearish trend. Recent 2h candles (16:00-17:00) show violent selloff from $2,995 to $2,925 low, currently bouncing to $2,953. RSI(7) at 30.1 is oversold BUT in downtrend this signals SHORT continuation opportunity, not reversal. Recent closed positions show multiple failed attempts (3 SL hits, 1 manual close at loss). However, current setup is better: entering on bounce into resistance rather than chasing. Target $2,880 support (2.5% gain), SL above $3,010 recent rejection (1.9% risk = 1.4x ATR). Risk-on with bearish structure favors shorts.
Confidence: 68%
Allocation: 12.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $2,880 targets next support level and prior consolidation zone for 2.5% gain (1.3:1 R/R). SL at $3,010 above recent rejection high and EMA cluster provides 1.9% risk (1.4x ATR). Exit early if price reclaims $3,000 with strong volume or if BTC breaks above $88,500, invalidating bearish thesis. Conservative 12% allocation given recent losing streak on ETH.
⚠️ REJECTED: total allocation would be 81.9% (current: 69.9%, new: 12.0%)
Maximum total allocation: 80%
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC SHORT position opened 6h ago at $87,476 is currently -0.32% but thesis remains intact. Price at $87,756 is below EMA(20) $87,757 and EMA(50) $88,055, confirming bearish structure. Recent 8h candles show consolidation in tight $87,600-$87,800 range with no breakout momentum. RSI(14) at 48.8 is neutral. TP at $85,500 targets key support (2.3% gain, 2.8:1 R/R) and SL at $89,200 provides adequate protection. No reason to exit early - let TP/SL work as designed. Breaking $86,800 would confirm continuation lower.
Confidence: 65%
💾 Database saved: run_id=200
3 order(s) executed
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