Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-12-28 06:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
🔄 Syncing positions with Hyperliquid...
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📅 Fetching weekly context...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-12-28 00:00:09
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $138.78
Margin Used: $34.00 (24.5%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-12-28 06:00:08 UTC
Last run: 2025-12-28 00:00:09 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-12-26 04:00 → 2025-12-28 06:00
BTC:
Current Price: $87,942.00
50h Change: -1.15%
50h Range: $86,829.00 - $89,766.00
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 21: $88,664.00→$88,853.00 (+0.2%)
Dec 22: $88,853.00→$88,759.00 (-0.1%)
Dec 23: $88,690.00→$87,633.00 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $87,699.00→$88,000.00 (+0.3%)
Dec 25: $88,159.00→$87,657.00 (-0.6%)
Dec 26: $87,685.00→$87,573.00 (-0.1%)
Dec 27: $87,545.00→$88,125.00 (+0.7%)
Dec 28: $88,078.00→$87,942.00 (-0.2%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-27 22:00: O=$87,894.00 H=$88,203.00 L=$87,756.00 C=$87,879.00 (-0.0%)
12-27 23:00: O=$87,892.00 H=$88,265.00 L=$87,823.00 C=$88,125.00 (+0.3%)
12-28 00:00: O=$88,078.00 H=$88,125.00 L=$87,893.00 C=$88,067.00 (-0.0%)
12-28 01:00: O=$88,052.00 H=$88,111.00 L=$87,932.00 C=$87,998.00 (-0.1%)
12-28 02:00: O=$87,991.00 H=$88,068.00 L=$87,957.00 C=$88,030.00 (+0.0%)
12-28 03:00: O=$88,022.00 H=$88,036.00 L=$87,955.00 C=$87,985.00 (-0.0%)
12-28 04:00: O=$87,963.00 H=$88,595.00 L=$87,879.00 C=$87,984.00 (+0.0%)
12-28 05:00: O=$87,983.00 H=$88,036.00 L=$87,860.00 C=$87,942.00 (-0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 52.0
RSI(14): 51.7
EMA(20): $87,910.29
EMA(50): $87,978.72
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $291.76
ETH:
Current Price: $3,009.30
50h Change: +0.63%
50h Range: $2,916.00 - $3,106.80
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 21: $2,978.80→$3,001.30 (+0.8%)
Dec 22: $3,002.30→$3,005.70 (+0.1%)
Dec 23: $3,007.10→$2,966.10 (-1.4%)
Dec 24: $2,964.50→$2,988.20 (+0.8%)
Dec 25: $2,995.50→$2,969.60 (-0.9%)
Dec 26: $2,950.90→$2,955.70 (+0.2%)
Dec 27: $2,960.50→$2,991.20 (+1.0%)
Dec 28: $2,986.70→$3,009.30 (+0.8%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-27 22:00: O=$2,986.00 H=$3,011.10 L=$2,948.00 C=$2,975.00 (-0.4%)
12-27 23:00: O=$2,975.70 H=$3,023.40 L=$2,962.20 C=$2,991.20 (+0.5%)
12-28 00:00: O=$2,986.70 H=$3,030.80 L=$2,951.10 C=$3,016.60 (+1.0%)
12-28 01:00: O=$2,978.20 H=$3,025.60 L=$2,952.80 C=$3,012.40 (+1.1%)
12-28 02:00: O=$2,994.20 H=$3,026.00 L=$2,951.80 C=$3,000.90 (+0.2%)
12-28 03:00: O=$3,011.70 H=$3,027.00 L=$2,952.50 C=$2,979.80 (-1.1%)
12-28 04:00: O=$3,007.60 H=$3,024.00 L=$2,950.40 C=$2,992.20 (-0.5%)
12-28 05:00: O=$2,972.50 H=$3,012.40 L=$2,945.00 C=$3,009.30 (+1.2%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 59.5
RSI(14): 55.9
EMA(20): $2,991.99
EMA(50): $2,996.03
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $57.28
SOL:
Current Price: $123.55
50h Change: +0.89%
50h Range: $120.44 - $124.89
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 21: $125.91→$125.90 (-0.0%)
Dec 22: $125.93→$125.58 (-0.3%)
Dec 23: $125.65→$123.72 (-1.5%)
Dec 24: $123.89→$122.24 (-1.3%)
Dec 25: $122.33→$119.74 (-2.1%)
Dec 26: $119.77→$121.99 (+1.9%)
Dec 27: $122.14→$124.51 (+1.9%)
Dec 28: $124.67→$123.55 (-0.9%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-27 22:00: O=$124.28 H=$124.69 L=$123.55 C=$123.73 (-0.4%)
12-27 23:00: O=$123.76 H=$124.64 L=$123.76 C=$124.51 (+0.6%)
12-28 00:00: O=$124.67 H=$124.73 L=$124.10 C=$124.27 (-0.3%)
12-28 01:00: O=$124.29 H=$124.48 L=$123.70 C=$123.70 (-0.5%)
12-28 02:00: O=$123.77 H=$124.23 L=$123.77 C=$124.02 (+0.2%)
12-28 03:00: O=$124.09 H=$124.14 L=$123.78 C=$123.95 (-0.1%)
12-28 04:00: O=$123.80 H=$124.14 L=$123.80 C=$123.91 (+0.1%)
12-28 05:00: O=$123.82 H=$123.82 L=$123.50 C=$123.55 (-0.2%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 46.6
RSI(14): 54.3
EMA(20): $123.51
EMA(50): $122.92
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $0.60
AVAX:
Current Price: $12.80
50h Change: +2.15%
50h Range: $12.15 - $12.86
Last 7 days (oldest→newest):
Dec 21: $12.14→$12.09 (-0.4%)
Dec 22: $12.19→$12.37 (+1.5%)
Dec 23: $12.42→$12.27 (-1.2%)
Dec 24: $12.17→$12.10 (-0.6%)
Dec 25: $12.10→$12.08 (-0.1%)
Dec 26: $12.07→$12.37 (+2.5%)
Dec 27: $12.35→$12.78 (+3.5%)
Dec 28: $12.73→$12.80 (+0.6%)
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
12-27 21:00: O=$12.65 H=$12.67 L=$12.59 C=$12.59 (-0.5%)
12-27 22:00: O=$12.57 H=$12.58 L=$12.57 C=$12.58 (+0.0%)
12-27 23:00: O=$12.62 H=$12.78 L=$12.62 C=$12.78 (+1.2%)
12-28 00:00: O=$12.73 H=$12.73 L=$12.71 C=$12.73 (+0.1%)
12-28 01:00: O=$12.74 H=$12.75 L=$12.73 C=$12.75 (+0.1%)
12-28 02:00: O=$12.77 H=$12.86 L=$12.77 C=$12.84 (+0.5%)
12-28 03:00: O=$12.78 H=$12.81 L=$12.78 C=$12.81 (+0.3%)
12-28 04:00: O=$12.81 H=$12.81 L=$12.80 C=$12.80 (-0.1%)
⚠️ WARNING: Data is 2.0h old - asset may be inactive
Indicators:
RSI(7): 72.0
RSI(14): 71.4
EMA(20): $12.63
ATR(14): $0.05
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
SOL (LONG): 0.84 @ $124.69 (Current: $123.55, P&L: -0.91%)
TP: $128.50 (+3.1%)
SL: $122.50 (-1.8%)
Exit Plan: TP at $128.50 targets +3.2% move (psychological resistance, 2.5x R/R). SL at $122.50 below recent consolidation and EMA(20) at $123.18 (~1.2% risk = 1.7x ATR). Exit early if price breaks below $123 with volume or if BTC reverses sharply. This respects the bullish trend while managing risk after recent volatility.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
BTC SHORT: 12-23 06:00 → 12-25 18:00 (60.0h)
Entry: $87,877.00, Exit: $88,464.00 P&L: -0.67% ($-0.79) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-23 18:00 → 12-26 00:20 (54.3h)
Entry: $122.90, Exit: $119.51 P&L: +2.76% ($+2.64) [TP_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 12-26 00:00 → 12-26 02:05 (2.1h)
Entry: $12.07, Exit: $12.36 P&L: -2.44% ($-2.32) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-26 00:00 → 12-26 07:35 (7.6h)
Entry: $2,950.49, Exit: $3,097.64 P&L: -4.99% ($-5.92) [SL_HIT]
SOL LONG: 12-26 12:00 → 12-26 15:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $123.69, Exit: $120.78 P&L: -2.35% ($-2.12) [SL_HIT]
ETH LONG: 12-26 12:00 → 12-26 15:20 (3.3h)
Entry: $3,048.90, Exit: $2,919.30 P&L: -4.25% ($-4.82) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 12-27 00:00 → 12-27 06:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $2,955.70, Exit: $3,002.70 P&L: -1.59% ($-1.37) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL SHORT: 12-26 18:00 → 12-27 18:00 (24.0h)
Entry: $121.73, Exit: $123.27 P&L: -1.27% ($-1.37) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX SHORT: 12-27 12:00 → 12-27 18:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $12.47, Exit: $12.57 P&L: -0.81% ($-0.52) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
BTC SHORT: 12-26 18:00 → 12-28 00:00 (30.0h)
Entry: $87,476.10, Exit: $88,125.00 P&L: -0.74% ($-1.28) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
AVAX:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: AVAX is severely overbought with RSI(7) at 72.0 and RSI(14) at 71.4 - textbook divergence setup. Price at $12.80 has rallied +5.9% in 48h from $12.07 to $12.86 high, now at resistance. Recent 8h candles show momentum stalling with tight consolidation at highs ($12.78-$12.86). This is a classic exhaustion pattern after a strong move. Price is 1.3% above EMA(20) at $12.63, stretched beyond mean. WARNING: Data is 2h old, but the overbought condition and resistance level remain valid. Short with tight stop above recent high.
Confidence: 72%
Allocation: 25.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $12.35 targets mean reversion to EMA(20) support at $12.63, capturing -3.5% move (2.3x R/R). SL at $13.00 above recent high of $12.86 protects against breakout continuation (~1.6% risk = 4x ATR). Exit early if BTC/ETH surge strongly or if RSI breaks above 75 indicating further extension. The overbought RSI + resistance + momentum stalling creates high-probability mean reversion setup.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $138.78
Allocation: 25.0% ($34.69 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $12.80
Size: 8.1300 coins
Notional value: $104.05
📝 Executing SHORT 8.13 AVAX @ 3x with TP: $12, SL: $13
✅ Market order filled @ $12.79
✅ TP order placed (oid: 45701295720)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 45701296193)
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC is trapped in tight consolidation around $88k with no clear directional bias. Price is sandwiched between EMA(20) at $87,910 and EMA(50) at $87,978, with RSI neutral at 52. Recent 8h candles show compression with minimal movement. The bearish EMA alignment is weak, and after 10 consecutive failed trades (9 losses), I need high-conviction setups. Current structure offers no edge - waiting for a clear break above $88,500 or below $87,500 with volume confirmation.
Confidence: 50%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH showing slight relative strength (+0.63% vs BTC -1.15%) but still in bearish EMA structure. Price at $3,009 is above both EMAs but recent 8h candles show erratic whipsaws ($2,945-$3,030 range). RSI at 59.5 suggests some momentum but not overbought. After 3 consecutive ETH losses totaling -10.83%, I need clearer confirmation. The overnight bounce lacks volume conviction, and we're in the middle of the recent range. Waiting for either a decisive break above $3,050 or a retest of $2,950 support with better risk/reward.
Confidence: 45%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Currently LONG from $124.69, position is -0.91% underwater but within normal variance. Price at $123.55 is testing EMA(20) support at $123.51 - this is a critical level. Recent 8h candles show gradual drift lower but no panic selling. My TP at $128.50 and SL at $122.50 remain valid. RSI cooled to 46.6 from overbought, which is healthy. The bullish EMA trend (20>50) is intact. TRUST THE STOPS - SL is properly placed below support. No reason to manually exit; let the position work. If SL hits, it validates the thesis was wrong. If price holds here, the TP target remains achievable.
Confidence: 60%
💾 Database saved: run_id=202
1 order(s) executed
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