Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-11-14 08:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: claude-sonnet-4-5
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-11-13 20:00:06
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $371.16
Margin Used: $214.75 (57.9%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-11-14 08:00:04 UTC
Last run: 2025-11-13 20:00:06 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-11-12 06:00 → 2025-11-14 08:00
BTC:
Current Price: $97,695.00
Period Change: -6.00%
Range: $96,904.00 - $107,742.00
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-14 00:00: O=$100,246.00 H=$100,563.00 L=$99,113.00 C=$99,564.00 (-0.7%)
11-14 01:00: O=$99,337.00 H=$101,010.00 L=$99,036.00 C=$100,020.00 (+0.7%)
11-14 02:00: O=$100,050.00 H=$100,717.00 L=$99,719.00 C=$100,167.00 (+0.1%)
11-14 03:00: O=$100,478.00 H=$101,341.00 L=$99,208.00 C=$100,083.00 (-0.4%)
11-14 04:00: O=$99,914.00 H=$100,333.00 L=$98,157.00 C=$98,365.00 (-1.6%)
11-14 05:00: O=$98,365.00 H=$98,474.00 L=$97,745.00 C=$97,859.00 (-0.5%)
11-14 06:00: O=$97,892.00 H=$98,111.00 L=$96,904.00 C=$97,753.00 (-0.1%)
11-14 07:00: O=$97,753.00 H=$98,200.00 L=$97,549.00 C=$97,695.00 (-0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 23.4
RSI(14): 27.8
EMA(20): $100,156.20
EMA(50): $102,878.90
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1885.62
ETH:
Current Price: $3,230.40
Period Change: -6.70%
Range: $3,124.40 - $3,672.30
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-14 00:00: O=$3,245.50 H=$3,249.20 L=$3,202.60 C=$3,208.90 (-1.1%)
11-14 01:00: O=$3,202.80 H=$3,230.70 L=$3,197.50 C=$3,218.60 (+0.5%)
11-14 02:00: O=$3,219.40 H=$3,262.20 L=$3,219.40 C=$3,250.30 (+1.0%)
11-14 03:00: O=$3,250.90 H=$3,250.90 L=$3,224.70 C=$3,240.10 (-0.3%)
11-14 04:00: O=$3,237.30 H=$3,289.60 L=$3,162.60 C=$3,162.60 (-2.3%)
11-14 05:00: O=$3,171.50 H=$3,212.50 L=$3,171.50 C=$3,205.00 (+1.1%)
11-14 06:00: O=$3,208.40 H=$3,212.60 L=$3,152.60 C=$3,212.60 (+0.1%)
11-14 07:00: O=$3,218.50 H=$3,254.10 L=$3,214.70 C=$3,230.40 (+0.4%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 46.7
RSI(14): 40.1
EMA(20): $3,275.89
EMA(50): $3,405.54
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $62.09
SOL:
Current Price: $143.19
Period Change: -8.17%
Range: $136.95 - $164.44
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-14 00:00: O=$144.89 H=$145.20 L=$143.28 C=$143.68 (-0.8%)
11-14 01:00: O=$143.35 H=$144.74 L=$143.17 C=$144.02 (+0.5%)
11-14 02:00: O=$144.10 H=$145.95 L=$144.10 C=$145.54 (+1.0%)
11-14 03:00: O=$145.77 H=$145.98 L=$144.03 C=$144.59 (-0.8%)
11-14 04:00: O=$144.56 H=$144.84 L=$141.06 C=$141.96 (-1.8%)
11-14 05:00: O=$142.88 H=$143.67 L=$141.85 C=$143.62 (+0.5%)
11-14 06:00: O=$143.65 H=$143.67 L=$140.40 C=$143.67 (+0.0%)
11-14 07:00: O=$143.32 H=$144.82 L=$141.75 C=$143.19 (-0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 37.4
RSI(14): 34.5
EMA(20): $146.47
EMA(50): $152.40
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $3.16
AVAX:
Current Price: $15.93
Period Change: -8.11%
Range: $15.62 - $17.74
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-14 00:00: O=$16.04 H=$16.10 L=$15.94 C=$15.94 (-0.6%)
11-14 01:00: O=$15.94 H=$15.94 L=$15.94 C=$15.94 (+0.0%)
11-14 02:00: O=$15.94 H=$15.94 L=$15.94 C=$15.94 (+0.0%)
11-14 03:00: O=$15.94 H=$15.94 L=$15.94 C=$15.94 (+0.0%)
11-14 04:00: O=$15.83 H=$15.83 L=$15.62 C=$15.62 (-1.3%)
11-14 05:00: O=$15.62 H=$15.62 L=$15.62 C=$15.62 (+0.0%)
11-14 06:00: O=$15.62 H=$15.62 L=$15.62 C=$15.62 (+0.0%)
11-14 07:00: O=$15.72 H=$16.00 L=$15.72 C=$15.93 (+1.4%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 46.7
RSI(14): 37.1
EMA(20): $16.18
EMA(50): $16.82
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.15
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
SOL (LONG): 4.4 @ $142.61 (Current: $143.19, P&L: +0.41%)
TP: $152.00 (+6.6%)
SL: $138.50 (-2.9%)
Exit Plan: Target $152 (6.3% gain, near prior support-turned-resistance). Stop at $138.50 below panic wick low (3.1% loss), giving 2:1 R/R. Exit if fails to reclaim $147 on next test or if BTC breaks below $98k.
ETH (LONG): 0.2032 @ $3,203.00 (Current: $3,230.40, P&L: +0.86%)
TP: $3,380.00 (+5.5%)
SL: $3,130.00 (-2.3%)
Exit Plan: Target $3,380 (5.4% gain, below EMA20 resistance). Stop at $3,130 below recent low (2.4% loss), giving 2.25:1 R/R. Exit if RSI reaches 50+ without breaking $3,300 or if BTC fails to hold $98k support.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
AVAX LONG: 11-12 08:00 → 11-12 17:30 (9.5h)
Entry: $17.16, Exit: $16.69 P&L: -2.72% ($-3.98) [SL_HIT]
SOL LONG: 11-12 08:00 → 11-12 19:15 (11.2h)
Entry: $155.48, Exit: $152.37 P&L: -2.00% ($-4.88) [SL_HIT]
BTC LONG: 11-11 20:00 → 11-12 19:45 (23.7h)
Entry: $104,466.40, Exit: $101,345.00 P&L: -2.99% ($-17.07) [SL_HIT]
AVAX LONG: 11-12 20:00 → 11-13 04:00 (8.0h)
Entry: $16.77, Exit: $17.60 P&L: +4.97% ($+10.76) [TP_HIT]
ETH LONG: 11-12 20:00 → 11-13 06:30 (10.5h)
Entry: $3,430.24, Exit: $3,556.90 P&L: +3.69% ($+13.08) [TP_HIT]
ETH LONG: 11-13 12:00 → 11-13 14:45 (2.7h)
Entry: $3,541.66, Exit: $3,429.00 P&L: -3.18% ($-11.12) [SL_HIT]
SOL LONG: 11-12 20:00 → 11-13 17:15 (21.2h)
Entry: $153.42, Exit: $150.47 P&L: -1.92% ($-4.63) [SL_HIT]
BTC LONG: 11-12 20:00 → 11-13 18:00 (22.0h)
Entry: $102,929.30, Exit: $100,166.00 P&L: -2.68% ($-13.46) [SL_HIT]
AVAX LONG: 11-13 20:00 → 11-14 04:45 (8.7h)
Entry: $15.94, Exit: $15.62 P&L: -2.02% ($-6.23) [SL_HIT]
BTC LONG: 11-13 20:00 → 11-14 06:15 (10.2h)
Entry: $99,813.80, Exit: $97,799.00 P&L: -2.02% ($-9.81) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
AVAX:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: AVAX showing clear bearish structure: price below both EMAs (EMA20: $16.18, EMA50: $16.82), -8.11% period change. Recent data shows suspicious flat candles (likely data issues) but the 04:00 drop to $15.62 and current struggle at $15.93 confirms weakness. RSI(14) at 37.1 is neutral-bearish. The recent bounce to $15.93 provides good entry for short with resistance at $16.00-$16.20 zone. Multiple failed longs in our history show downtrend strength. ATR at $0.15 allows tight stops. With 57.9% margin used, keeping this conservative at 15% allocation with 3x leverage.
Confidence: 65%
Allocation: 15.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: Target $15.20 (4.6% gain, near recent low support). Stop at $16.35 above EMA20 resistance (2.6% loss), giving 1.75:1 R/R. Exit early if BTC reclaims $100k strongly or if AVAX breaks above $16.50 with volume, invalidating bearish thesis. Conservative sizing due to already high margin usage.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $371.16
Allocation: 15.0% ($55.67 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $15.93
Size: 10.4800 coins
Notional value: $166.99
📝 Executing SHORT 10.48 AVAX @ 3x with TP: $15, SL: $16
✅ Market order filled @ $15.91
✅ TP order placed
✅ SL order placed
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC is in a strong downtrend with price below both EMAs (EMA20: $100,156, EMA50: $102,879). While RSI(14) at 27.8 shows oversold conditions, we've seen multiple failed long attempts get stopped out. The recent 8h shows continued selling pressure with lower lows ($97,549 recent low). We're already at 57.9% margin utilization - adding another position here would be reckless. Need to see actual reversal confirmation (reclaim of $99k-$100k with volume) before re-entering. The oversold RSI alone is not enough in a strong bear trend.
Confidence: 70%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH long position is barely profitable (+0.86%) and approaching our TP at $3,380. Current price $3,230 is still below EMA20 ($3,276) showing bearish structure. Recent 8h candles show volatility with wicks to $3,152 but recovery attempts. RSI(14) at 40.1 is neutral. CRITICAL: Trust the TP/SL system - they execute 24/7. The position has proper risk management (2.25:1 R/R) and there's no thesis invalidation. Manual close would just churn fees. Let the automated orders do their job. Only close if BTC breaks below $96.5k decisively.
Confidence: 80%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SOL long showing small profit (+0.41%) with well-structured TP/SL (2:1 R/R). Entry at $142.61 was near the low, current $143.19. Price remains below EMA20 ($146.47) in bearish trend, but RSI(14) at 34.5 shows oversold. Recent 8h shows stabilization after the drop to $140.40. TP at $152 is reasonable target. Like ETH, the automated orders are doing their job - manual intervention would only cost fees without adding value. Position sizing is appropriate. Hold and let the system work.
Confidence: 80%
💾 Database saved: run_id=26
1 order(s) executed
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