Output
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Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-11-18 06:00:00 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-11-18 00:00:05
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $241.57
Margin Used: $48.31 (20.0%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-11-18 06:00:04 UTC
Last run: 2025-11-18 00:00:05 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-11-16 04:00 → 2025-11-18 06:00
BTC:
Current Price: $90,224.00
Period Change: -5.79%
Range: $89,443.00 - $96,580.00
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-17 22:00: O=$91,877.00 H=$92,364.00 L=$91,825.00 C=$92,231.00 (+0.4%)
11-17 23:00: O=$92,222.00 H=$92,272.00 L=$91,816.00 C=$92,180.00 (-0.0%)
11-18 00:00: O=$92,162.00 H=$92,329.00 L=$91,245.00 C=$92,060.00 (-0.1%)
11-18 01:00: O=$92,054.00 H=$92,177.00 L=$91,624.00 C=$91,724.00 (-0.4%)
11-18 02:00: O=$91,737.00 H=$91,744.00 L=$90,777.00 C=$90,842.00 (-1.0%)
11-18 03:00: O=$90,839.00 H=$90,917.00 L=$89,799.00 C=$90,874.00 (+0.0%)
11-18 04:00: O=$90,798.00 H=$90,883.00 L=$89,443.00 C=$90,123.00 (-0.7%)
11-18 05:00: O=$90,137.00 H=$90,471.00 L=$89,788.00 C=$90,224.00 (+0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 17.7
RSI(14): 25.3
EMA(20): $92,323.11
EMA(50): $94,161.30
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $895.84
ETH:
Current Price: $2,974.80
Period Change: -7.14%
Range: $2,851.70 - $3,254.10
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-17 22:00: O=$2,966.90 H=$3,020.70 L=$2,963.40 C=$2,973.40 (+0.2%)
11-17 23:00: O=$3,013.40 H=$3,014.50 L=$2,968.40 C=$2,991.90 (-0.7%)
11-18 00:00: O=$2,985.60 H=$3,030.40 L=$2,959.00 C=$3,029.10 (+1.5%)
11-18 01:00: O=$3,029.80 H=$3,038.00 L=$2,978.20 C=$3,010.70 (-0.6%)
11-18 02:00: O=$3,008.10 H=$3,035.00 L=$2,967.40 C=$2,970.30 (-1.3%)
11-18 03:00: O=$2,970.30 H=$3,015.60 L=$2,927.00 C=$3,009.80 (+1.3%)
11-18 04:00: O=$3,009.80 H=$3,009.80 L=$2,870.40 C=$2,995.00 (-0.5%)
11-18 05:00: O=$2,995.10 H=$3,009.80 L=$2,931.80 C=$2,974.80 (-0.7%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 37.0
RSI(14): 38.1
EMA(20): $3,041.55
EMA(50): $3,116.75
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $72.45
SOL:
Current Price: $135.22
Period Change: -4.17%
Range: $128.35 - $142.97
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-17 22:00: O=$129.88 H=$131.28 L=$129.70 C=$130.75 (+0.7%)
11-17 23:00: O=$130.45 H=$130.86 L=$129.70 C=$130.23 (-0.2%)
11-18 00:00: O=$130.55 H=$130.99 L=$128.59 C=$130.88 (+0.3%)
11-18 01:00: O=$131.01 H=$131.89 L=$130.73 C=$131.57 (+0.4%)
11-18 02:00: O=$131.55 H=$134.03 L=$130.54 C=$132.09 (+0.4%)
11-18 03:00: O=$131.85 H=$134.63 L=$131.06 C=$134.02 (+1.6%)
11-18 04:00: O=$134.14 H=$135.26 L=$132.19 C=$134.78 (+0.5%)
11-18 05:00: O=$134.88 H=$135.94 L=$133.88 C=$135.22 (+0.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 66.3
RSI(14): 52.6
EMA(20): $134.02
EMA(50): $137.11
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $2.55
AVAX:
Current Price: $14.57
Period Change: -7.09%
Range: $14.09 - $15.82
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-17 22:00: O=$14.62 H=$14.62 L=$14.62 C=$14.62 (+0.0%)
11-17 23:00: O=$14.47 H=$14.47 L=$14.47 C=$14.47 (+0.0%)
11-18 00:00: O=$14.50 H=$14.50 L=$14.31 C=$14.31 (-1.3%)
11-18 01:00: O=$14.31 H=$14.31 L=$14.31 C=$14.31 (+0.0%)
11-18 02:00: O=$14.14 H=$14.26 L=$14.09 C=$14.26 (+0.8%)
11-18 03:00: O=$14.13 H=$14.49 L=$14.09 C=$14.46 (+2.3%)
11-18 04:00: O=$14.39 H=$14.39 L=$14.39 C=$14.39 (+0.0%)
11-18 05:00: O=$14.68 H=$14.68 L=$14.57 C=$14.57 (-0.7%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 50.4
RSI(14): 44.0
EMA(20): $14.71
EMA(50): $15.15
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.20
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
SOL (LONG): 0.69 @ $131.62 (Current: $135.22, P&L: +2.74%)
TP: $138.00 (+4.8%)
SL: $127.00 (-3.5%)
Exit Plan: Target $138 (EMA20) for 4.8% gain vs 3.6% risk = 1.3:1 R/R. Conservative 2x leverage due to recent liquidation trauma. Stop at $127 is 1.5x ATR ($3.11) below entry. Will exit immediately if we break below $130 or if BTC fails to hold support. This is the riskiest trade but highest potential reward.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
AVAX LONG: 11-16 18:00 → 11-17 03:00 (9.0h)
Entry: $14.80, Exit: $15.39 P&L: +4.04% ($+7.74) [TP_HIT]
SOL LONG: 11-16 18:00 → 11-17 07:30 (13.5h)
Entry: $135.87, Exit: $140.54 P&L: +3.44% ($+6.54) [TP_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 11-17 06:00 → 11-17 12:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $15.59, Exit: $15.62 P&L: -0.15% ($-0.17) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
ETH LONG: 11-17 06:00 → 11-17 13:45 (7.7h)
Entry: $3,189.70, Exit: $3,125.10 P&L: -2.03% ($-3.19) [SL_HIT]
SOL LONG: 11-17 12:00 → 11-17 14:00 (2.0h)
Entry: $141.37, Exit: $119.24 P&L: -15.65% ($-25.00) [LIQUIDATION]
BTC LONG: 11-16 18:00 → 11-17 17:45 (23.7h)
Entry: $94,428.00, Exit: $92,746.85 P&L: -1.78% ($-2.71) [SL_HIT]
ETH LONG: 11-17 18:00 → 11-17 19:45 (1.7h)
Entry: $3,060.00, Exit: $2,988.50 P&L: -2.34% ($-3.86) [SL_HIT]
AVAX LONG: 11-17 18:00 → 11-17 19:45 (1.7h)
Entry: $14.75, Exit: $14.45 P&L: -2.04% ($-2.04) [SL_HIT]
BTC LONG: 11-17 18:00 → 11-17 20:15 (2.2h)
Entry: $92,792.00, Exit: $91,431.00 P&L: -1.47% ($-2.76) [SL_HIT]
AVAX LONG: 11-18 00:00 → 11-18 02:15 (2.2h)
Entry: $14.50, Exit: $14.09 P&L: -2.83% ($-2.74) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC showing extreme oversold RSI(7)=17.7, RSI(14)=25.3, but price remains below both EMAs in confirmed downtrend. Recent 8h shows aggressive selling with $2,781 range and wicks to $89,443. While oversold conditions suggest bounce potential, no reversal confirmation yet. Market structure is bearish with lower lows. Given recent string of SL hits (4 consecutive losses), waiting for clear reversal signal rather than catching falling knife. Need to see price reclaim $92k and hold above EMA20.
Confidence: 50%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH in bearish trend below both EMAs (price $2,974 vs EMA20 $3,041, EMA50 $3,116). RSI(14)=38.1 shows weakness but not extreme oversold. Recent candles show volatility with $138 range in last hour and failed attempt to hold $3,000. Two recent ETH longs stopped out within hours. Market correlation with BTC remains strong and BTC hasn't confirmed reversal. High ATR ($72.45) suggests continued volatility. Risk-off environment not suitable for longs; shorts need more confirmation of breakdown below $2,850 support.
Confidence: 40%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: Existing LONG position at $131.62, currently +2.74% profit at $135.22. Position has clear TP at $138 and SL at $127. SOL showing relative strength vs BTC/ETH with RSI(7)=66.3, price above EMA20 ($134.02), and building higher lows last 8h ($128.59→$133.88). Recent momentum positive with 5 consecutive green candles. CRITICAL: Trust the TP/SL orders - they execute automatically. Manual close would be premature as thesis (bounce from oversold) is playing out. Only invalidation would be break below $130 or BTC cascading lower. Current position sizing appropriate at 20% margin used.
Confidence: 65%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: AVAX showing consolidation around $14.50-$14.60 after bounce from $14.09 low. RSI(14)=44 neutral, price below both EMAs in bearish structure. Recent history catastrophic: 3 consecutive AVAX longs stopped out in last 24h for -2.04%, -2.04%, -2.83% losses. Market clearly not respecting AVAX support levels. Low liquidity evident from flat candles (multiple $0.00 moves). While price stabilizing, no clear setup present. Need either: 1) Break above $15.00 with volume for long, or 2) Break below $14.00 for short. Current risk/reward unclear in choppy range.
Confidence: 30%
💾 Database saved: run_id=41
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