Output
============================================================
Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-11-21 18:24:51 UTC
============================================================
Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-11-21 18:00:04
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $227.69
Margin Used: $0.00 (0.0%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-11-21 18:24:55 UTC
Last run: 2025-11-21 18:00:04 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-11-19 16:00 → 2025-11-21 18:24
BTC:
Current Price: $83,895.00
Period Change: -6.78%
Range: $80,424.00 - $93,051.00
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-21 11:00: O=$82,876.00 H=$84,018.00 L=$82,502.00 C=$82,588.00 (-0.3%)
11-21 12:00: O=$82,590.00 H=$83,901.00 L=$80,960.00 C=$83,561.00 (+1.2%)
11-21 13:00: O=$83,528.00 H=$84,746.00 L=$83,469.00 C=$84,477.00 (+1.1%)
11-21 14:00: O=$84,431.00 H=$85,899.00 L=$83,912.00 C=$85,309.00 (+1.0%)
11-21 15:00: O=$85,366.00 H=$85,456.00 L=$83,238.00 C=$83,348.00 (-2.4%)
11-21 16:00: O=$83,253.00 H=$85,367.00 L=$82,864.00 C=$85,111.00 (+2.2%)
11-21 17:00: O=$85,253.00 H=$87,000.00 L=$84,874.00 C=$85,127.00 (-0.1%)
11-21 18:00: O=$85,526.00 H=$85,567.00 L=$83,564.00 C=$83,895.00 (-1.9%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 43.7
RSI(14): 41.5
EMA(20): $85,296.97
EMA(50): $88,284.13
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1706.82
ETH:
Current Price: $2,737.30
Period Change: -6.79%
Range: $2,601.50 - $3,060.00
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-21 11:00: O=$2,705.00 H=$2,726.80 L=$2,682.10 C=$2,691.60 (-0.5%)
11-21 12:00: O=$2,691.60 H=$2,747.60 L=$2,632.30 C=$2,731.90 (+1.5%)
11-21 13:00: O=$2,733.40 H=$2,775.10 L=$2,715.30 C=$2,750.80 (+0.6%)
11-21 14:00: O=$2,747.70 H=$2,786.30 L=$2,723.30 C=$2,777.40 (+1.1%)
11-21 15:00: O=$2,778.00 H=$2,778.00 L=$2,696.90 C=$2,709.20 (-2.5%)
11-21 16:00: O=$2,709.90 H=$2,768.90 L=$2,683.00 C=$2,759.60 (+1.8%)
11-21 17:00: O=$2,762.30 H=$2,808.90 L=$2,757.50 C=$2,785.10 (+0.8%)
11-21 18:00: O=$2,785.70 H=$2,785.70 L=$2,724.10 C=$2,737.30 (-1.7%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 45.2
RSI(14): 42.9
EMA(20): $2,778.10
EMA(50): $2,884.98
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $62.78
SOL:
Current Price: $127.68
Period Change: -4.68%
Range: $112.56 - $143.90
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-21 11:00: O=$125.16 H=$126.43 L=$124.10 C=$124.51 (-0.5%)
11-21 12:00: O=$124.54 H=$127.25 L=$122.08 C=$126.59 (+1.6%)
11-21 13:00: O=$126.45 H=$128.45 L=$126.03 C=$127.64 (+0.9%)
11-21 14:00: O=$127.35 H=$129.74 L=$126.50 C=$128.91 (+1.2%)
11-21 15:00: O=$129.07 H=$129.29 L=$125.09 C=$125.52 (-2.8%)
11-21 16:00: O=$125.60 H=$128.93 L=$123.80 C=$128.93 (+2.7%)
11-21 17:00: O=$128.84 H=$130.71 L=$128.55 C=$129.47 (+0.5%)
11-21 18:00: O=$129.48 H=$129.55 L=$126.81 C=$127.68 (-1.4%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 46.0
RSI(14): 42.6
EMA(20): $129.46
EMA(50): $133.91
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $3.73
AVAX:
Current Price: $13.26
Period Change: -6.72%
Range: $12.67 - $14.43
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-21 11:00: O=$12.97 H=$13.02 L=$12.90 C=$12.91 (-0.5%)
11-21 12:00: O=$12.91 H=$13.09 L=$12.67 C=$13.09 (+1.5%)
11-21 13:00: O=$13.20 H=$13.20 L=$13.20 C=$13.20 (+0.0%)
11-21 14:00: O=$13.20 H=$13.20 L=$13.20 C=$13.20 (+0.0%)
11-21 15:00: O=$13.20 H=$13.20 L=$13.00 C=$13.00 (-1.5%)
11-21 16:00: O=$13.20 H=$13.20 L=$13.20 C=$13.20 (+0.0%)
11-21 17:00: O=$13.40 H=$13.40 L=$13.40 C=$13.40 (+0.0%)
11-21 18:00: O=$13.25 H=$13.26 L=$13.25 C=$13.26 (+0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 49.8
RSI(14): 40.6
EMA(20): $13.36
EMA(50): $13.80
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.14
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
No open positions
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
ETH LONG: 11-19 18:00 → 11-20 02:15 (8.2h)
Entry: $2,920.20, Exit: $3,048.90 P&L: +4.41% ($+7.17) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 11-20 06:00 → 11-20 16:00 (10.0h)
Entry: $142.33, Exit: $138.34 P&L: +2.80% ($+8.66) [TP_HIT]
BTC LONG: 11-20 18:00 → 11-21 00:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $86,981.00, Exit: $86,772.00 P&L: -0.24% ($-0.74) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
ETH LONG: 11-20 18:00 → 11-21 00:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $2,820.90, Exit: $2,839.20 P&L: +0.65% ($+1.65) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX LONG: 11-19 18:00 → 11-21 00:00 (30.0h)
Entry: $13.92, Exit: $13.81 P&L: -0.78% ($-1.92) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL LONG: 11-20 18:00 → 11-21 07:45 (13.7h)
Entry: $132.11, Exit: $129.21 P&L: -2.20% ($-2.52) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 11-21 12:00 → 11-21 12:26 (0.4h)
Entry: $12.91, Exit: $12.78 P&L: +0.95% ($+1.08) [UNKNOWN]
BTC SHORT: 11-21 12:00 → 11-21 14:35 (2.6h)
Entry: $82,534.00, Exit: $85,000.00 P&L: -2.99% ($-9.15) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 11-21 12:00 → 11-21 15:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $2,691.31, Exit: $2,785.18 P&L: -3.49% ($-10.68) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 11-21 12:00 → 11-21 15:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $124.36, Exit: $129.63 P&L: -4.24% ($-8.12) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
[3mSYSTEM PROMPT:[0m
[3mYou are an expert crypto trading advisor managing a portfolio of perpetual futures positions.
DATA ORDERING:
All time-series data (candles, trades, etc.) is presented in chronological order: OLDEST first → NEWEST last.
The most recent data point is always at the END of each list.
TRADING RULES:
- You will run on schedule (cron: {'hour': '0,6,12,18', 'minute': '0'}) and be able to manage your positions on next run
- Maximum 1 position per asset at a time
- If a position already exists for an asset, you can only "close" or "hold"
- Focus on risk management while looking for gains
- IMPORTANT: Trust your TP/SL orders - they execute 24/7 automatically. Manual "close" should ONLY be used when your thesis is invalidated, NOT just because a position is profitable or "approaching TP". Churning costs fees and exits before full moves play out
ACTIONS:
- "long": Open a long position (bet price goes up)
- "short": Open a short position (bet price goes down)
- "close": Close existing position
- "hold": Take no action
MARKET ANALYSIS REQUIREMENTS:
Before making any trade decision, you must assess:
1. Overall market trend (bull/bear/sideways) using 20/50 EMA positioning
2. Recent price action context (breakouts, breakdowns, consolidation)
3. Risk-on vs risk-off environment
4. Never take positions against strong trends without clear reversal confirmation
5. In bear markets, PRIORITIZE SHORT positions - don't fight the trend by catching falling knives
6. TREND-FOLLOWING is safer than mean-reversion: prefer trading WITH the trend over counter-trend bounces
RISK MANAGEMENT:
- Set stop losses at least 1.5x ATR below entry for longs (above for shorts)
- Minimum 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio required
- In volatile markets (ATR > 30-day average), widen stops by 50%
ENTRY REQUIREMENTS:
Never enter a position based on a single indicator. Require at least 2 of:
- RSI oversold/overbought - interpret in context of trend:
* Downtrend + oversold = SHORT continuation opportunity
* Uptrend + overbought = LONG continuation opportunity
* Counter-trend requires strong reversal confirmation
- Price near key support/resistance levels
- EMA trend alignment
- Volume confirmation
- Bullish/bearish divergence
- Clear chart pattern breakout/breakdown
IMPORTANT: In bearish market structure, favor SHORT positions. BTC/ETH are not immune to shorts - trade the trend.
POSITION SIZING:
For long/short actions, you must determine allocation percentage and leverage:
1. Select leverage based on confidence and market conditions:
- Low confidence (0.3-0.5): Use 1-2x leverage
- Medium confidence (0.5-0.7): Use 2-3x leverage
- High confidence (0.7-1.0): Use 3-5x leverage MAX
2. Choose allocation_pct (percentage of account to use as MARGIN):
- This is a decimal between 0.0 and 0.4 (max 40%)
- Higher conviction = higher allocation (but never exceed 0.4)
- Examples: 0.15 (15%), 0.25 (25%), 0.35 (35%)
Example with $1000 account, allocation_pct = 0.30, 5x leverage:
- Margin committed = $1000 × 0.30 = $300
- Notional position = $300 × 5 = $1,500
- This is a conservative 30% margin allocation with 150% notional exposure
3. Guidelines for allocation_pct:
- Low conviction trades: 0.10 - 0.20 (10-20% margin)
- Medium conviction: 0.20 - 0.30 (20-30% margin)
- High conviction: 0.30 - 0.40 (30-40% margin)
- CRITICAL: Total margin across all positions must not exceed 80%
- See ACCOUNT section for current margin used[0m
[3m
USER PROMPT:[0m
[3mAnalyze the market data below and make trading decisions for ALL assets (BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX).
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $227.69
Margin Used: $0.00 (0.0%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-11-21 18:24:55 UTC
Last run: 2025-11-21 18:00:04 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-11-19 16:00 → 2025-11-21 18:24
BTC:
Current Price: $83,895.00
Period Change: -6.78%
Range: $80,424.00 - $93,051.00
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-21 11:00: O=$82,876.00 H=$84,018.00 L=$82,502.00 C=$82,588.00 (-0.3%)
11-21 12:00: O=$82,590.00 H=$83,901.00 L=$80,960.00 C=$83,561.00 (+1.2%)
11-21 13:00: O=$83,528.00 H=$84,746.00 L=$83,469.00 C=$84,477.00 (+1.1%)
11-21 14:00: O=$84,431.00 H=$85,899.00 L=$83,912.00 C=$85,309.00 (+1.0%)
11-21 15:00: O=$85,366.00 H=$85,456.00 L=$83,238.00 C=$83,348.00 (-2.4%)
11-21 16:00: O=$83,253.00 H=$85,367.00 L=$82,864.00 C=$85,111.00 (+2.2%)
11-21 17:00: O=$85,253.00 H=$87,000.00 L=$84,874.00 C=$85,127.00 (-0.1%)
11-21 18:00: O=$85,526.00 H=$85,567.00 L=$83,564.00 C=$83,895.00 (-1.9%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 43.7
RSI(14): 41.5
EMA(20): $85,296.97
EMA(50): $88,284.13
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $1706.82
ETH:
Current Price: $2,737.30
Period Change: -6.79%
Range: $2,601.50 - $3,060.00
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-21 11:00: O=$2,705.00 H=$2,726.80 L=$2,682.10 C=$2,691.60 (-0.5%)
11-21 12:00: O=$2,691.60 H=$2,747.60 L=$2,632.30 C=$2,731.90 (+1.5%)
11-21 13:00: O=$2,733.40 H=$2,775.10 L=$2,715.30 C=$2,750.80 (+0.6%)
11-21 14:00: O=$2,747.70 H=$2,786.30 L=$2,723.30 C=$2,777.40 (+1.1%)
11-21 15:00: O=$2,778.00 H=$2,778.00 L=$2,696.90 C=$2,709.20 (-2.5%)
11-21 16:00: O=$2,709.90 H=$2,768.90 L=$2,683.00 C=$2,759.60 (+1.8%)
11-21 17:00: O=$2,762.30 H=$2,808.90 L=$2,757.50 C=$2,785.10 (+0.8%)
11-21 18:00: O=$2,785.70 H=$2,785.70 L=$2,724.10 C=$2,737.30 (-1.7%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 45.2
RSI(14): 42.9
EMA(20): $2,778.10
EMA(50): $2,884.98
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $62.78
SOL:
Current Price: $127.68
Period Change: -4.68%
Range: $112.56 - $143.90
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-21 11:00: O=$125.16 H=$126.43 L=$124.10 C=$124.51 (-0.5%)
11-21 12:00: O=$124.54 H=$127.25 L=$122.08 C=$126.59 (+1.6%)
11-21 13:00: O=$126.45 H=$128.45 L=$126.03 C=$127.64 (+0.9%)
11-21 14:00: O=$127.35 H=$129.74 L=$126.50 C=$128.91 (+1.2%)
11-21 15:00: O=$129.07 H=$129.29 L=$125.09 C=$125.52 (-2.8%)
11-21 16:00: O=$125.60 H=$128.93 L=$123.80 C=$128.93 (+2.7%)
11-21 17:00: O=$128.84 H=$130.71 L=$128.55 C=$129.47 (+0.5%)
11-21 18:00: O=$129.48 H=$129.55 L=$126.81 C=$127.68 (-1.4%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 46.0
RSI(14): 42.6
EMA(20): $129.46
EMA(50): $133.91
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $3.73
AVAX:
Current Price: $13.26
Period Change: -6.72%
Range: $12.67 - $14.43
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-21 11:00: O=$12.97 H=$13.02 L=$12.90 C=$12.91 (-0.5%)
11-21 12:00: O=$12.91 H=$13.09 L=$12.67 C=$13.09 (+1.5%)
11-21 13:00: O=$13.20 H=$13.20 L=$13.20 C=$13.20 (+0.0%)
11-21 14:00: O=$13.20 H=$13.20 L=$13.20 C=$13.20 (+0.0%)
11-21 15:00: O=$13.20 H=$13.20 L=$13.00 C=$13.00 (-1.5%)
11-21 16:00: O=$13.20 H=$13.20 L=$13.20 C=$13.20 (+0.0%)
11-21 17:00: O=$13.40 H=$13.40 L=$13.40 C=$13.40 (+0.0%)
11-21 18:00: O=$13.25 H=$13.26 L=$13.25 C=$13.26 (+0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 49.8
RSI(14): 40.6
EMA(20): $13.36
EMA(50): $13.80
EMA Trend: bearish
ATR(14): $0.14
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
No open positions
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
ETH LONG: 11-19 18:00 → 11-20 02:15 (8.2h)
Entry: $2,920.20, Exit: $3,048.90 P&L: +4.41% ($+7.17) [TP_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 11-20 06:00 → 11-20 16:00 (10.0h)
Entry: $142.33, Exit: $138.34 P&L: +2.80% ($+8.66) [TP_HIT]
BTC LONG: 11-20 18:00 → 11-21 00:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $86,981.00, Exit: $86,772.00 P&L: -0.24% ($-0.74) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
ETH LONG: 11-20 18:00 → 11-21 00:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $2,820.90, Exit: $2,839.20 P&L: +0.65% ($+1.65) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX LONG: 11-19 18:00 → 11-21 00:00 (30.0h)
Entry: $13.92, Exit: $13.81 P&L: -0.78% ($-1.92) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL LONG: 11-20 18:00 → 11-21 07:45 (13.7h)
Entry: $132.11, Exit: $129.21 P&L: -2.20% ($-2.52) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 11-21 12:00 → 11-21 12:26 (0.4h)
Entry: $12.91, Exit: $12.78 P&L: +0.95% ($+1.08) [UNKNOWN]
BTC SHORT: 11-21 12:00 → 11-21 14:35 (2.6h)
Entry: $82,534.00, Exit: $85,000.00 P&L: -2.99% ($-9.15) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 11-21 12:00 → 11-21 15:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $2,691.31, Exit: $2,785.18 P&L: -3.49% ($-10.68) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 11-21 12:00 → 11-21 15:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $124.36, Exit: $129.63 P&L: -4.24% ($-8.12) [SL_HIT]
Respond with a JSON array of decisions, one per asset. Format:
[
{
"asset": "BTC",
"action": "hold|long|short|close",
"reasoning": "brief explanation of your analysis",
"confidence": 0.0-1.0,
"allocation_pct": 0.25, // REQUIRED for long/short (0.0-0.4 as decimal), null for hold/close
"leverage": 5, // REQUIRED for long/short (1-20x), null for hold/close
"take_profit_price": 50000.0, // REQUIRED for long/short, null for hold/close
"stop_loss_price": 45000.0, // REQUIRED for long/short, null for hold/close
"exit_plan": "Target resistance at $50k, support at $45k. Close early if momentum shifts"
},
...
]
Notes:
- Provide exactly one decision per asset: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
- For "long" and "short" actions, MUST provide: allocation_pct, leverage, take_profit_price, stop_loss_price
- For "hold" and "close" actions, set all optional fields to null
- allocation_pct is % of account as margin (0.15 = 15%, 0.30 = 30%, max 0.4 = 40%)
- exit_plan should explain WHY those TP/SL levels and any additional exit conditions
- TP/SL are automatically placed as trigger orders on the exchange
- Consider cross-asset correlations and portfolio risk[0m
SOL:
→ SHORT
Reasoning: SOL showing clearest bearish setup of the four assets. Price below both EMAs (current $127.68 vs EMA20 $129.46), clear downtrend structure. RSI(14) at 42.6 is oversold but not extreme - in downtrends this is a SHORT continuation signal. Recent 8h shows failed rally attempt: pumped from $123.80 to $130.71 (17:00 high) but immediately rejected back to $127.68. This is a classic lower high formation. Previous short from 12:00 got stopped out at $129.63, but that was during the broader market relief rally. Now seeing rejection from that exact level. Entry here at $127.68 with stop above the 17:00 high at $131.50 (1.5x ATR = $5.60 stop distance). Target the period low at $112.56 for excellent R:R. Volume and momentum favor continuation lower.
Confidence: 72%
Allocation: 28.0%
Leverage: 3x
Exit Plan: TP at $115.00 targets near the period low of $112.56 with buffer. SL at $131.50 is above the 17:00 rejection high of $130.71, giving 1.5x ATR protection. This provides 3.3:1 R:R ratio ($12.68 gain vs $3.82 risk). Will monitor for break below $125 support to add conviction. Exit manually if price reclaims and holds above EMA20 ($129.46) with strong volume, indicating trend reversal.
📊 Position sizing:
Account value: $227.69
Allocation: 28.0% ($63.75 margin)
Leverage: 3x
Current price: $127.68
Size: 1.5000 coins
Notional value: $191.52
📝 Executing SHORT 1.5 SOL @ 3x with TP: $115, SL: $132
✅ Market order filled @ $127.93
✅ TP order placed (oid: 43683693870)
✅ SL order placed (oid: 43683695354)
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC is in a clear bearish structure (price below both EMAs, EMA20 < EMA50). Recent 8h shows extreme volatility with $2k+ swings and failed rallies. RSI(14) at 41.5 suggests oversold but in a downtrend this often signals continuation, not reversal. Just got stopped out of a short at 12:00 that hit SL at $85k before reversing down. Current price $83,895 is in no-man's land - not at clear support/resistance. Need to wait for either: (1) clear break below $80,400 support for short entry, or (2) reclaim of EMA20 ($85,297) with volume for potential long. Trading this chop after recent losses would be revenge trading.
Confidence: 60%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH mirrors BTC's bearish structure - price below both EMAs, downtrend intact. RSI(14) at 42.9 is oversold but not extreme. Just took a painful -3.49% loss on a short that got stopped out at $2,785 during the 12:00-15:00 rally before price reversed. Current price $2,737 is between key levels. The recent price action shows violent whipsaws ($2,632-$2,809 range in 8h) making entries dangerous. ATR of $62.78 is elevated. Would need to see either: (1) break below $2,600 for short entry, or (2) sustained move above $2,785 with volume confirmation for long. The 17:00-18:00 rejection from $2,808 back to $2,737 shows sellers still in control, but not enough confirmation for entry yet.
Confidence: 55%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: AVAX data quality is questionable - shows multiple consecutive candles with identical OHLC values (13:00-14:00, 15:00-16:00, 17:00 all showing flat prices), suggesting possible data feed issues or extremely low liquidity. While technically bearish (price $13.26 below EMA20 $13.36), RSI(14) at 40.6 is oversold and RSI(7) at 49.8 shows recent momentum shift. The small ATR of $0.14 (only 1% of price) makes risk management difficult - would need very tight stops that could get triggered by normal noise. Previous trades showed quick scalp profits but also whipsaws. Without reliable granular data and given the low liquidity signals, this is not tradeable with confidence. Would need cleaner price action and better data quality before considering entry.
Confidence: 45%
💾 Database saved: run_id=56
1 order(s) executed
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