Output
============================================================
Alpha Bot Daily Run - 2025-11-24 14:01:30 UTC
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Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
LLM: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-5
📊 Fetching market data (50x 1h candles)...
📈 Calculating technical indicators...
Last run: 2025-11-24 12:00:05
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $213.08
Margin Used: $53.43 (25.1%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-11-24 14:01:35 UTC
Last run: 2025-11-24 12:00:05 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-11-22 12:00 → 2025-11-24 14:01
BTC:
Current Price: $86,016.00
Period Change: +1.47%
Range: $83,964.00 - $89,778.00
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-24 07:00: O=$86,837.00 H=$87,269.00 L=$86,603.00 C=$86,987.00 (+0.2%)
11-24 08:00: O=$87,029.00 H=$87,029.00 L=$86,697.00 C=$86,897.00 (-0.2%)
11-24 09:00: O=$86,897.00 H=$86,911.00 L=$85,800.00 C=$85,930.00 (-1.1%)
11-24 10:00: O=$85,951.00 H=$86,139.00 L=$85,682.00 C=$86,048.00 (+0.1%)
11-24 11:00: O=$86,049.00 H=$86,335.00 L=$85,856.00 C=$86,244.00 (+0.2%)
11-24 12:00: O=$86,184.00 H=$86,271.00 L=$85,810.00 C=$85,931.00 (-0.3%)
11-24 13:00: O=$85,920.00 H=$86,490.00 L=$85,900.00 C=$86,020.00 (+0.1%)
11-24 14:00: O=$86,043.00 H=$86,096.00 L=$86,001.00 C=$86,016.00 (-0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 37.1
RSI(14): 44.4
EMA(20): $86,613.01
EMA(50): $86,601.92
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $927.30
ETH:
Current Price: $2,790.30
Period Change: +2.22%
Range: $2,704.30 - $2,870.40
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-24 07:00: O=$2,813.60 H=$2,827.70 L=$2,793.70 C=$2,802.60 (-0.4%)
11-24 08:00: O=$2,806.40 H=$2,828.40 L=$2,801.90 C=$2,828.40 (+0.8%)
11-24 09:00: O=$2,818.70 H=$2,829.40 L=$2,749.90 C=$2,786.20 (-1.2%)
11-24 10:00: O=$2,784.60 H=$2,792.70 L=$2,784.50 C=$2,787.20 (+0.1%)
11-24 11:00: O=$2,787.50 H=$2,793.10 L=$2,779.10 C=$2,790.00 (+0.1%)
11-24 12:00: O=$2,788.20 H=$2,794.80 L=$2,761.40 C=$2,781.80 (-0.2%)
11-24 13:00: O=$2,780.80 H=$2,809.30 L=$2,777.70 C=$2,804.10 (+0.8%)
11-24 14:00: O=$2,792.10 H=$2,801.10 L=$2,790.30 C=$2,790.30 (-0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 45.8
RSI(14): 48.3
EMA(20): $2,799.02
EMA(50): $2,785.99
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $39.22
SOL:
Current Price: $129.78
Period Change: +2.29%
Range: $125.50 - $134.63
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-24 07:00: O=$131.28 H=$131.74 L=$130.64 C=$130.67 (-0.5%)
11-24 08:00: O=$130.42 H=$130.72 L=$129.88 C=$130.60 (+0.1%)
11-24 09:00: O=$130.62 H=$130.69 L=$128.71 C=$129.24 (-1.1%)
11-24 10:00: O=$129.01 H=$129.49 L=$129.01 C=$129.44 (+0.3%)
11-24 11:00: O=$129.43 H=$130.11 L=$128.97 C=$129.84 (+0.3%)
11-24 12:00: O=$129.72 H=$130.13 L=$129.28 C=$129.72 (+0.0%)
11-24 13:00: O=$129.68 H=$130.71 L=$129.65 C=$129.92 (+0.2%)
11-24 14:00: O=$129.79 H=$129.92 L=$129.78 C=$129.78 (-0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 38.8
RSI(14): 44.3
EMA(20): $130.75
EMA(50): $130.19
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $1.39
AVAX:
Current Price: $13.41
Period Change: +1.16%
Range: $13.08 - $13.44
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-24 06:00: O=$13.29 H=$13.29 L=$13.29 C=$13.29 (+0.0%)
11-24 07:00: O=$13.29 H=$13.29 L=$13.29 C=$13.29 (+0.0%)
11-24 08:00: O=$13.44 H=$13.44 L=$13.44 C=$13.44 (+0.0%)
11-24 09:00: O=$13.44 H=$13.44 L=$13.44 C=$13.44 (+0.0%)
11-24 10:00: O=$13.44 H=$13.44 L=$13.44 C=$13.44 (+0.0%)
11-24 11:00: O=$13.44 H=$13.44 L=$13.44 C=$13.44 (+0.0%)
11-24 12:00: O=$13.36 H=$13.36 L=$13.35 C=$13.35 (-0.0%)
11-24 13:00: O=$13.37 H=$13.42 L=$13.37 C=$13.41 (+0.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 61.9
RSI(14): 58.2
EMA(20): $13.35
EMA(50): $13.29
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $0.02
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
ETH (LONG): 0.0592 @ $2,852.57 (Current: $2,790.30, P&L: -2.18%)
TP: $2,950.00 (+3.4%)
SL: $2,735.00 (-4.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $2,950 targets psychological resistance and 3.8% move above current ($107 gain, ~12% return on 3x). SL at $2,735 sits below recent swing low ($2,757) with 2.3x ATR buffer ($108 risk), protecting against failed breakout. This provides 1:1 R:R minimum. Exit manually if BTC breaks below $86,000 or if ETH loses EMA20 support on heavy volume.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
ETH LONG: 11-20 18:00 → 11-21 00:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $2,820.90, Exit: $2,839.20 P&L: +0.65% ($+1.65) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX LONG: 11-19 18:00 → 11-21 00:00 (30.0h)
Entry: $13.92, Exit: $13.81 P&L: -0.78% ($-1.92) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL LONG: 11-20 18:00 → 11-21 07:45 (13.7h)
Entry: $132.11, Exit: $129.21 P&L: -2.20% ($-2.52) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 11-21 12:00 → 11-21 12:26 (0.4h)
Entry: $12.91, Exit: $12.78 P&L: +0.95% ($+1.08) [UNKNOWN]
BTC SHORT: 11-21 12:00 → 11-21 14:35 (2.6h)
Entry: $82,534.00, Exit: $85,000.00 P&L: -2.99% ($-9.15) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 11-21 12:00 → 11-21 15:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $2,691.31, Exit: $2,785.18 P&L: -3.49% ($-10.68) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 11-21 12:00 → 11-21 15:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $124.36, Exit: $129.63 P&L: -4.24% ($-8.12) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 11-21 18:25 → 11-23 04:20 (33.9h)
Entry: $127.93, Exit: $131.57 P&L: -2.85% ($-5.46) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 11-22 12:00 → 11-23 18:00 (30.0h)
Entry: $13.26, Exit: $13.29 P&L: -0.27% ($-0.37) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL LONG: 11-23 18:00 → 11-24 09:35 (15.6h)
Entry: $131.74, Exit: $128.86 P&L: -2.19% ($-5.44) [SL_HIT]
🤖 Getting LLM decisions...
[3mSYSTEM PROMPT:[0m
[3mYou are an expert crypto trading advisor managing a portfolio of perpetual futures positions.
DATA ORDERING:
All time-series data (candles, trades, etc.) is presented in chronological order: OLDEST first → NEWEST last.
The most recent data point is always at the END of each list.
TRADING RULES:
- You will run on schedule (cron: {'hour': '0,6,12,18', 'minute': '0'}) and be able to manage your positions on next run
- Maximum 1 position per asset at a time
- If a position already exists for an asset, you can only "close" or "hold"
- Focus on risk management while looking for gains
- IMPORTANT: Trust your TP/SL orders - they execute 24/7 automatically. Manual "close" should ONLY be used when your thesis is invalidated, NOT just because a position is profitable or "approaching TP". Churning costs fees and exits before full moves play out
ACTIONS:
- "long": Open a long position (bet price goes up)
- "short": Open a short position (bet price goes down)
- "close": Close existing position
- "hold": Take no action
MARKET ANALYSIS REQUIREMENTS:
Before making any trade decision, you must assess:
1. Overall market trend (bull/bear/sideways) using 20/50 EMA positioning
2. Recent price action context (breakouts, breakdowns, consolidation)
3. Risk-on vs risk-off environment
4. Never take positions against strong trends without clear reversal confirmation
5. In bear markets, PRIORITIZE SHORT positions - don't fight the trend by catching falling knives
6. TREND-FOLLOWING is safer than mean-reversion: prefer trading WITH the trend over counter-trend bounces
RISK MANAGEMENT:
- Set stop losses at least 1.5x ATR below entry for longs (above for shorts)
- Minimum 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio required
- In volatile markets (ATR > 30-day average), widen stops by 50%
ENTRY REQUIREMENTS:
Never enter a position based on a single indicator. Require at least 2 of:
- RSI oversold/overbought - interpret in context of trend:
* Downtrend + oversold = SHORT continuation opportunity
* Uptrend + overbought = LONG continuation opportunity
* Counter-trend requires strong reversal confirmation
- Price near key support/resistance levels
- EMA trend alignment
- Volume confirmation
- Bullish/bearish divergence
- Clear chart pattern breakout/breakdown
IMPORTANT: In bearish market structure, favor SHORT positions. BTC/ETH are not immune to shorts - trade the trend.
POSITION SIZING:
For long/short actions, you must determine allocation percentage and leverage:
1. Select leverage based on confidence and market conditions:
- Low confidence (0.3-0.5): Use 1-2x leverage
- Medium confidence (0.5-0.7): Use 2-3x leverage
- High confidence (0.7-1.0): Use 3-5x leverage MAX
2. Choose allocation_pct (percentage of account to use as MARGIN):
- This is a decimal between 0.0 and 0.4 (max 40%)
- Higher conviction = higher allocation (but never exceed 0.4)
- Examples: 0.15 (15%), 0.25 (25%), 0.35 (35%)
Example with $1000 account, allocation_pct = 0.30, 5x leverage:
- Margin committed = $1000 × 0.30 = $300
- Notional position = $300 × 5 = $1,500
- This is a conservative 30% margin allocation with 150% notional exposure
3. Guidelines for allocation_pct:
- Low conviction trades: 0.10 - 0.20 (10-20% margin)
- Medium conviction: 0.20 - 0.30 (20-30% margin)
- High conviction: 0.30 - 0.40 (30-40% margin)
- CRITICAL: Total margin across all positions must not exceed 80%
- See ACCOUNT section for current margin used[0m
[3m
USER PROMPT:[0m
[3mAnalyze the market data below and make trading decisions for ALL assets (BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX).
=== ACCOUNT ===
Account Value: $213.08
Margin Used: $53.43 (25.1%)
=== TIMING ===
Current time: 2025-11-24 14:01:35 UTC
Last run: 2025-11-24 12:00:05 UTC
=== MARKET DATA ===
Analysis period: 2025-11-22 12:00 → 2025-11-24 14:01
BTC:
Current Price: $86,016.00
Period Change: +1.47%
Range: $83,964.00 - $89,778.00
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-24 07:00: O=$86,837.00 H=$87,269.00 L=$86,603.00 C=$86,987.00 (+0.2%)
11-24 08:00: O=$87,029.00 H=$87,029.00 L=$86,697.00 C=$86,897.00 (-0.2%)
11-24 09:00: O=$86,897.00 H=$86,911.00 L=$85,800.00 C=$85,930.00 (-1.1%)
11-24 10:00: O=$85,951.00 H=$86,139.00 L=$85,682.00 C=$86,048.00 (+0.1%)
11-24 11:00: O=$86,049.00 H=$86,335.00 L=$85,856.00 C=$86,244.00 (+0.2%)
11-24 12:00: O=$86,184.00 H=$86,271.00 L=$85,810.00 C=$85,931.00 (-0.3%)
11-24 13:00: O=$85,920.00 H=$86,490.00 L=$85,900.00 C=$86,020.00 (+0.1%)
11-24 14:00: O=$86,043.00 H=$86,096.00 L=$86,001.00 C=$86,016.00 (-0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 37.1
RSI(14): 44.4
EMA(20): $86,613.01
EMA(50): $86,601.92
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $927.30
ETH:
Current Price: $2,790.30
Period Change: +2.22%
Range: $2,704.30 - $2,870.40
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-24 07:00: O=$2,813.60 H=$2,827.70 L=$2,793.70 C=$2,802.60 (-0.4%)
11-24 08:00: O=$2,806.40 H=$2,828.40 L=$2,801.90 C=$2,828.40 (+0.8%)
11-24 09:00: O=$2,818.70 H=$2,829.40 L=$2,749.90 C=$2,786.20 (-1.2%)
11-24 10:00: O=$2,784.60 H=$2,792.70 L=$2,784.50 C=$2,787.20 (+0.1%)
11-24 11:00: O=$2,787.50 H=$2,793.10 L=$2,779.10 C=$2,790.00 (+0.1%)
11-24 12:00: O=$2,788.20 H=$2,794.80 L=$2,761.40 C=$2,781.80 (-0.2%)
11-24 13:00: O=$2,780.80 H=$2,809.30 L=$2,777.70 C=$2,804.10 (+0.8%)
11-24 14:00: O=$2,792.10 H=$2,801.10 L=$2,790.30 C=$2,790.30 (-0.1%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 45.8
RSI(14): 48.3
EMA(20): $2,799.02
EMA(50): $2,785.99
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $39.22
SOL:
Current Price: $129.78
Period Change: +2.29%
Range: $125.50 - $134.63
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-24 07:00: O=$131.28 H=$131.74 L=$130.64 C=$130.67 (-0.5%)
11-24 08:00: O=$130.42 H=$130.72 L=$129.88 C=$130.60 (+0.1%)
11-24 09:00: O=$130.62 H=$130.69 L=$128.71 C=$129.24 (-1.1%)
11-24 10:00: O=$129.01 H=$129.49 L=$129.01 C=$129.44 (+0.3%)
11-24 11:00: O=$129.43 H=$130.11 L=$128.97 C=$129.84 (+0.3%)
11-24 12:00: O=$129.72 H=$130.13 L=$129.28 C=$129.72 (+0.0%)
11-24 13:00: O=$129.68 H=$130.71 L=$129.65 C=$129.92 (+0.2%)
11-24 14:00: O=$129.79 H=$129.92 L=$129.78 C=$129.78 (-0.0%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 38.8
RSI(14): 44.3
EMA(20): $130.75
EMA(50): $130.19
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $1.39
AVAX:
Current Price: $13.41
Period Change: +1.16%
Range: $13.08 - $13.44
Recent 8h candles (OLDEST → NEWEST):
11-24 06:00: O=$13.29 H=$13.29 L=$13.29 C=$13.29 (+0.0%)
11-24 07:00: O=$13.29 H=$13.29 L=$13.29 C=$13.29 (+0.0%)
11-24 08:00: O=$13.44 H=$13.44 L=$13.44 C=$13.44 (+0.0%)
11-24 09:00: O=$13.44 H=$13.44 L=$13.44 C=$13.44 (+0.0%)
11-24 10:00: O=$13.44 H=$13.44 L=$13.44 C=$13.44 (+0.0%)
11-24 11:00: O=$13.44 H=$13.44 L=$13.44 C=$13.44 (+0.0%)
11-24 12:00: O=$13.36 H=$13.36 L=$13.35 C=$13.35 (-0.0%)
11-24 13:00: O=$13.37 H=$13.42 L=$13.37 C=$13.41 (+0.3%)
Indicators:
RSI(7): 61.9
RSI(14): 58.2
EMA(20): $13.35
EMA(50): $13.29
EMA Trend: bullish
ATR(14): $0.02
=== OPEN POSITIONS ===
ETH (LONG): 0.0592 @ $2,852.57 (Current: $2,790.30, P&L: -2.18%)
TP: $2,950.00 (+3.4%)
SL: $2,735.00 (-4.1%)
Exit Plan: TP at $2,950 targets psychological resistance and 3.8% move above current ($107 gain, ~12% return on 3x). SL at $2,735 sits below recent swing low ($2,757) with 2.3x ATR buffer ($108 risk), protecting against failed breakout. This provides 1:1 R:R minimum. Exit manually if BTC breaks below $86,000 or if ETH loses EMA20 support on heavy volume.
=== RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS (OLDEST → NEWEST) ===
ETH LONG: 11-20 18:00 → 11-21 00:00 (6.0h)
Entry: $2,820.90, Exit: $2,839.20 P&L: +0.65% ($+1.65) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
AVAX LONG: 11-19 18:00 → 11-21 00:00 (30.0h)
Entry: $13.92, Exit: $13.81 P&L: -0.78% ($-1.92) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL LONG: 11-20 18:00 → 11-21 07:45 (13.7h)
Entry: $132.11, Exit: $129.21 P&L: -2.20% ($-2.52) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 11-21 12:00 → 11-21 12:26 (0.4h)
Entry: $12.91, Exit: $12.78 P&L: +0.95% ($+1.08) [UNKNOWN]
BTC SHORT: 11-21 12:00 → 11-21 14:35 (2.6h)
Entry: $82,534.00, Exit: $85,000.00 P&L: -2.99% ($-9.15) [SL_HIT]
ETH SHORT: 11-21 12:00 → 11-21 15:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $2,691.31, Exit: $2,785.18 P&L: -3.49% ($-10.68) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 11-21 12:00 → 11-21 15:05 (3.1h)
Entry: $124.36, Exit: $129.63 P&L: -4.24% ($-8.12) [SL_HIT]
SOL SHORT: 11-21 18:25 → 11-23 04:20 (33.9h)
Entry: $127.93, Exit: $131.57 P&L: -2.85% ($-5.46) [SL_HIT]
AVAX SHORT: 11-22 12:00 → 11-23 18:00 (30.0h)
Entry: $13.26, Exit: $13.29 P&L: -0.27% ($-0.37) [MANUAL_CLOSE]
SOL LONG: 11-23 18:00 → 11-24 09:35 (15.6h)
Entry: $131.74, Exit: $128.86 P&L: -2.19% ($-5.44) [SL_HIT]
Respond with a JSON array of decisions, one per asset. Format:
[
{
"asset": "BTC",
"action": "hold|long|short|close",
"reasoning": "brief explanation of your analysis",
"confidence": 0.0-1.0,
"allocation_pct": 0.25, // REQUIRED for long/short (0.0-0.4 as decimal), null for hold/close
"leverage": 5, // REQUIRED for long/short (1-20x), null for hold/close
"take_profit_price": 50000.0, // REQUIRED for long/short, null for hold/close
"stop_loss_price": 45000.0, // REQUIRED for long/short, null for hold/close
"exit_plan": "Target resistance at $50k, support at $45k. Close early if momentum shifts"
},
...
]
Notes:
- Provide exactly one decision per asset: BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX
- For "long" and "short" actions, MUST provide: allocation_pct, leverage, take_profit_price, stop_loss_price
- For "hold" and "close" actions, set all optional fields to null
- allocation_pct is % of account as margin (0.15 = 15%, 0.30 = 30%, max 0.4 = 40%)
- exit_plan should explain WHY those TP/SL levels and any additional exit conditions
- TP/SL are automatically placed as trigger orders on the exchange
- Consider cross-asset correlations and portfolio risk[0m
BTC:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: BTC showing consolidation below EMA20 ($86,613) with RSI(14) at 44.4 indicating neutral momentum. Price trading in tight range $85,800-$86,500 over last 8 hours. While EMAs show bullish alignment, current price action lacks conviction. Recent failed attempt to reclaim $87k suggests resistance. With 25% margin already deployed on ETH, waiting for clearer directional move - either breakout above $87k or breakdown below $85,800 to confirm next leg.
Confidence: 60%
ETH:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: ETH long position currently -2.18% but thesis remains valid. Price holding above EMA50 ($2,786) support with EMAs still bullish. Recent candle shows recovery from $2,777 low to $2,804, testing resistance. RSI(14) at 48.3 neutral, not oversold. TP at $2,950 and SL at $2,735 are well-placed with proper risk management. Position has room to work - closing now would realize unnecessary loss when stops are protecting downside. Trust the TP/SL orders as instructed. Only concern would be BTC breaking $85,800, but BTC holding steady.
Confidence: 65%
SOL:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: SOL showing weak price action - trading below EMA20 ($130.75) with RSI(14) at 44.3. Recent pattern shows failed bounces and consistent lower highs from $131.74 → $130.72 → $130.71. However, holding above EMA50 ($130.19) support. Recent trade history shows 3 consecutive SL hits on SOL (2 shorts, 1 long), suggesting choppy, difficult-to-trade conditions. Current setup lacks clear edge - not oversold enough for long, not breaking down enough for short. Better to wait for clearer signal: either break above $131.50 or below $128.50.
Confidence: 55%
AVAX:
→ HOLD
Reasoning: AVAX data quality appears compromised - showing identical OHLC values across multiple hourly candles (6am-11am), then sudden jump from $13.29 to $13.44. This suggests exchange data issues or extremely low liquidity. Current price $13.41 slightly above EMA20 ($13.35) with RSI(14) at 58.2 (neutral-bullish). However, ATR of only $0.02 indicates minimal volatility, making risk/reward unfavorable. With questionable data reliability and tight ranges, no edge exists. Recent AVAX trades showed quick stops. Avoid until data normalizes and clearer setup emerges.
Confidence: 40%
💾 Database saved: run_id=68
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